August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP projection is now 75-80 mm from current 63 mm. 

CET will continue to drift upward for several days, and later back down, likely ending near 16.7 C. June looking increasingly likely to take top spot but August will still edge out July. 

If it is 16.7 then I win along with damianslaw and another poster who I don't know who his name is.    

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If it is 16.7 then I win along with damianslaw and another poster who I don't know who his name is.    

Will see, I couldn't remember what I went with. Would also tie with 2009, indeed if it does July and Aug would resemble 2009 uncannily. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Indeed @damianslawoh the irony of it all.   

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If it is 16.7 then I win along with damianslaw and another poster who I don't know who his name is.    

We actually have six forecasts of 16.7, you would be second in points as we go by order of entry (the number in brackets) ... not to say 16.7 is favored over any other group in the high 16 range, but these are the six who said 16.7 ...

16.7 _ 61.0 __ SummerShower (15) ________

16.7 _ 75.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18) _______

16.7 _102.0__ summer blizzard (20) ________

16.7 _ 66.0 __ dancerwithwings (35) _______

16.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (52) ____________

16.7 _ 85.0 __ Somerset girl (L1-4) _________

Looks like you have a shot at best combined forecast too. 

Somerset girl also has a good first effort it would appear. 

[Frigid]

Thank goodness the CET didn't skyrocket into the 18s like it was forecast a week ago, would've been another month where I underpredicted greatly. 

As for now, my 16.6C 85mm forecast looks pretty good. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Thank goodness the CET didn't skyrocket into the 18s like it was forecast a week ago, would've been another month where I underpredicted greatly. 

As for now, my 16.6C 85mm forecast looks pretty good. 

If the summer CET is 16.6 it will be in the record books.   A hot and slightly wet summer is unheard of really, although 1997 was very similar.    

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

If the summer CET is 16.6 it will be in the record books.   A hot and slightly wet summer is unheard of really, although 1997 was very similar.    

Summers 2004 and 2020 had CETs of 16.2/16.3C and were wetter than average

Summer 2019 wasn't too far behind in wetness with a similar CET

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.9C +0.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged at 51.7mm 75.1% of the monthly average.

Warm night should push it up a little the weekend probably cancelling it out.

At the moment it's looking like summer will be joint 6th warmest on record for us.

Edited August 21, 2023 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

Updated EWP scoring for annual, August and summer seasonal ranks _ preliminary report

August tracker final estimate of 85.0 mm _ scoring will be adjusted again with final report on 5th.

Late penalties may create small irregular jogs of ranks and scoring levels for August.

Scores affected by late penalties have a  v  symbol after the rank. 

Table displays rank for points, previous rank, number of contests (n), total points, average error, rank if 5/9 or more entered, Aug forecast, score, rank.

 

Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER ________ n ___ TOTAL PTS ___ AVG ERROR (rank)*__ Aug fcst, score (rank)

_01 __ 01 ___ snowray ______________9 ___ 63.93 ________ 23.87 ( 3 ) _ ( 3 ) ____ 72.0 __ 6.06 (25) 

_02 __ 03 ___ Reef __________________9 ___ 61.83 ________ 24.50 ( 5 ) _ ( 5 ) ____ 92.2 __ 6.96 (20)

_03 __ 02 ___ Leo97t _______________ 9 ___ 60.15 ________ 24.48 ( 4 ) _ ( 2 ) ____ 65.0 __ 3.90 (36) 

_04 __ 12 ___ Weather Observer ___ 9 ___ 56.92 ________ 27.59 (15) _ (19) ____ 85.0 __ 9.80 (3)

_05 __ 04 ___ February1978 ________9 ___ 56.82 ________ 27.03 (11) _ (14) ____ 91.0 __ 7.28 (18)

_06 __ 14 ___ Jeff C _________________ 9 ___ 56.60 ________ 28.63 (16) _ (22) ____ 85.0 __10.00 (1)

_07 __ 07 ___ bobd29 _______________9 ___ 56.57 ________ 25.64 ( 8 ) _ (11) ____ 81.6 __ 8.06 (13)

_08 __ 11 ___ jonboy _______________ 9 ___ 55.45 ________ 27.50 (12) _ (16) ____ 81.0 __ 7.89 (14)

_09 __ 15 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____9 ___ 54.85 ________ 30.39 (26) _ (30) ____ 87.2 __ 9.04 (6)

_10 __ 08 ___ DR(S)NO ______________9 ___ 54.61 ________ 28.21 (15) _ (17) ____ 95.0 __ 6.48 (23)

_11 __ 09 ___ virtualsphere _________9 ___ 54.54 ________ 26.94 (10) _ (12) ____ 93.0 __ 6.80 (21)

_12 __ 06 ___ Mulzy _________________9 ___ 54.22 ________ 28.08 (14) _ (15) ____ 70.0 __ 5.50 (30)

_13__t18 ___ Polar Gael ____________ 9 ___ 53.08 ________ 29.84 (22) _ (26) ____ 80.2 __ 7.72 (15)

_14 __ 22 ___ seaside60 ____________ 9 ___ 52.78 ________ 31.54 (28) _ (33) ____ 84.0 __ 8.96 (7) v

_15 __ 10 ___prolongedSnowLover _9 ___ 52.33 ________ 26.00 ( 9 ) _ ( 8 ) ____ 67.0 ___4.56 (32)

_16 __ 05 ___ Summer Shower______8 ___ 51.75 ________ 25.36 ( 7 ) _ ( 4 ) ____ 61.0 __ 3.02 (39)

_17 __ 17 ___ J 10 ___________________ 9 ___ 51.13 ________ 28.86 (18) _  (18) ___100.0 __ 5.76 (26)

_18 __ 20 ___ Emmett Garland _____ 9 ___ 51.03 ________ 29.63 (20) _ (23) ____ 93.0 __ 6.70 (22)

_19 __ 13 ___ Stationary Front ______9 ___ 50.31 ________ 28.72 (17) _ (13) ____ 62.0 __ 3.24 (38)

_20 __t18 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 9 ___ 49.82 ________ 30.30 (t24) _(20) ____ 67.0 __ 4.46 (33)

_21 __ 16 ___ dancerwithwings _____9 ___ 49.75 ________ 32.28 (31) _ (31) ____ 66.0 __ 4.12 (36)

_22 __ 26 ___ Roger J Smith _________9 ___ 49.43 ________ 25.26 ( 6 ) _ (10) _____82.7 __ 8.88 (8)

_23 __ 28 ___ Don __________________ 9 ___ 48.70 ________ 30.30 (t24) _(29) ____ 88.0 __ 8.52 (12)

_24 __ 21 ___ Wold Topper _________ 9 ___ 47.75 ________ 31.48 (27) _ (25) ____ 65.0 __ 3.80 (35)

_25 __ 30 ___ summer18 ___________ 9 ___ 46.65 ________ 29.97 (23) _ (27) ____ 82.0 __ 8.71 (10)

_26 __ 29 ___ daniel* _______________ 9 ___ 46.13 ________ 33.70 (33) _ (36) ____ 80.0 __ 7.45 (17)

_27 _ t41 ___ Weather26 ____________8 ___ 44.91 ________ 23.36 ( 2 ) _ ( 6 ) ____ 88.0 __ 8.72 (9)

_28 __ 27 ___ noname_weather_____9 ___ 42.91 ________ 31.97 (30) _ (24) ____112.0 __ 2.46 (41) v

_29 __ 23 ___ I Remember Atl252 ___8 ___ 42.67 ________ 29.78 (21) _ ( 9 ) ____130.0 __ 0.22 (52)

_30 __ 38 ___ Mr Maunder __________9 ___ 42.47 ________ 34.08 (34) _ (40) ____ 84.0 __ 9.36 (5)

_31 __ 24 ___ Mapantz ______________8 ___ 42.18 ________ 34.34 (35) _ (32) ____ no fcst

_32 __ 35 ___ The PIT _______________ 9 ___ 41.38 ________ 35.92 (40) _ (42) ____ 80.0 __ 7.55 (16)

_33 __ 25 ___ summer8906 _________6 ___ 40.68 ________ 21.33 ( 1 ) _  ( 1 ) ____no fcst

_34 __ 34 ___ Godber 1 _____________ 9 ___ 39.82 ________ 35.14 (36) _(38) ____100.0 __ 5.66 (29)

_35 __ 33 ___ davehsug _____________ 9 ___ 38.38 ________ 35.74 (39) _ (39) ____105.0 __ 3.96 (35)

_36 __ 32 ___ shillitocettwo _________ 9 ___ 37.13 ________ 41.72 (47) _ (46) ____117.0 __ 1.76 (45)

_37 __ 36 ___ Methuselah ___________9 ___ 34.67 ________ 38.63 (43) _ (41) ____ 49.0 __ 1.04 (48)

_38 __ 46 ___ Neil N _________________8 ___ 34.65 ________ 35.46 (37) _ (44) ____ 88.0 __ 8.62 (11)

_39 __ 41 ___ rwtwm ________________9 ___ 34.38 ________ 38.86 (44) _ (43) ____ 55.0 __ 2.26 (43)

_40 __ 49 ___ Frigid __________________9 ___ 33.69 ________ 43.77 (50) _ (51) ____ 85.0 __ 9.90 (2) 

_41 __ 37 ___ DiagonalRedLine _____ 6 ___ 33.52 ________ 33.52 (32) _ (28) ____ no fcst

_42__t39 ___ syed2878 _____________ 9 ___ 33.25 ________ 40.72 (45) _ (45) ____ 45.0 __ 0.60 (50)

_43 __t39 ___ Norrance _____________8 ___ 32.65 ________ 37.56 (41) _ (37) ____ no fcst

_44 __ 42 ___ freeze _________________5 ___ 31.95 ________ 31.92 (29) _ (21) ____ no fcst

_45 __ 43 ___ stewfox _______________ 6 ___ 30.01 ________ 29.20 (19) _ ( 7 ) ___ 123.0 __ 0.88 (49)

_46 __ 50 ___ SteveB ________________ 9 ___ 29.96 ________ 40.99 (46) _ (50) ____ 79.0 __ 7.22 (19)

_47 __ 48 ___ summer blizzard ______ 9 ___ 29.19 ________ 42.03 (48) _ (48) ___102.0 __ 4.84 (31)

_48 __ 51 ___ Metwatch ______________8 ___ 27.81 ________ 46.20 (54) _ (53) ____ 72.0 __ 5.66 (27) v

_49 __ 44 ___ SLEETY ________________ 7 ___ 27.10 ________ 35.57 (38) _ (34) ____ no fcst

_50 __ 45 ___ Cymro _________________4 ___ 26.11 ________ 36.88 (---) _  (---) ____ no fcst

_51 __ 47 ___ Moorlander ___________ 9 ___ 26.05 ________ 44.19 (51) _ (49) ____120.0 __ 1.54 (46)

_52 __ 52 ___ sunny_vale ____________ 6 ___ 20.37 ________ 37.70 (42) _ (35) ____ 44.0 __ 0.38 (51) 

_53 __ 56 ___ chilly milly ______________9 ___ 20.34 ________ 53.44 (55) _ (54) ___112.0 __ 2.86 (40)

_54 __ 55 ___ catbrainz _______________5 ___ 19.66 ________ 43.36 (49) _ (---) ____ 54.0 __ 1.92 (44)

_55 __ 53 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 5 ___ 19.01 ________ 44.90 (52) _ (47) ____ no fcst

_56 __ 57 ___ B87 _____________________4 ___ 18.73 ________ 29.58 (---) _ (---) ____ 50.0 __ 1.48 (47)

_57 __ 54 ___ Blast From the Past ____4 ___ 18.63 _________44.13 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_58 __ 59 ___ Earthshine ______________7 ___ 17.39 ________ 47.11 (54) _ (52) ____ 55.0 __ 2.36 (42)

_59 __ 58 ___ Thundery Wintry Showers _4 _17.04 _______ 32.58 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_61 __ 60 ___ Let It Snow! _____________3 ___ 14.06 ________ 51.47 (---) _ (---) ____ no fcst

_61 __ 68 ___ Weather Enthusiast91 __ 2 ___ 13.22 _______ 25.25 ( ---) _ (---) ____ 70.0 ___ 5.60 (28)

_66 __ --- ___ Somerset Girl ___________ 1 ____ 9.40 _________ 0.00 (---) _ (---) ____ 85.0 __ 9.40 (17) v

_73 __ --- ___ AddicksFan1981 ________ 1 ____ 6.42 _________ 3.10 (---) _ (---) ____ 75.0 ___ 6.42 (24)

_94 __ --- ___ Met. _____________________ 1 ____ 0.00 _________61.00 (---) _ (---) ___146.0 __ 0.00 (53)

(only August entrants are shown after 60th place in annual contest) 

=========================

 (3.6) _(3.9) __ Consensus _____________ 9 ___ 58.63 _______ 27.78 (13.4) (19.1) __ 82.7 __ 8.88 (t8)

(14.1) (14.8) _ 1981-2010 average _____9 ___ 52.76 _______ 26.51 ( 9.6) _(10.0) __ 75.6 __ 6.83 (20.8)

(15.2)(24,1) _ 1991-2020 average _____ 9 ___ 52.23 _______ 26.66 ( 9.8) _(14.2) __ 82.3 __ 8.79 (8.6)

Scores and average errors for these have improved slightly from July (second values for ranks are July ranks)

______________________________

 

SUMMER SEASONAL SCORING _  all entrants

_ _ _ (Consensus, normals shown in position to right of nearest scores for forecasters)

Table may require adjustments on 5 September.

 

Rank _ FORECASTER _________________ Points ___ Avg err (mm)

01 __ snowray ________________________23.72 ____ 18.60

02 __ Reef ____________________________ 22.89 ____ 18.33

03 __ Roger J Smith ___________________22.04 _____ 6.63 _________ Consensus 22.12 (avg err 19.20)

04 __ Don _____________________________21.79 ____ 19.27

05 __ Mr Maunder ____________________21.51 ____ 18.27

06 __ virtualsphere ___________________21.38 ____ 12.27

07 __ Midlands Ice Age _______________21.12 ____ 22.93

08 __ J 10 _____________________________20.83 ____ 21.60

09 __ JeffC ____________________________19.72 ____ 22.27 

10 __ Polar Gael ______________________19.67 ____ 21.53

11__ NeilN ___________________________ 19.57 ____ 22.27

12 __ Weather Observer _____________ 19.42 ____ 22.27

13 __ Weather26 _____________________ 19.14 ____ 13.60

14 __ summer 18 ____________________ 19.03 ____ 18.60

15 __ seaside60 ______________________18.94 ____ 23.60

16 __ Metwatch ______________________18.70 ____ 25.93

17 __ noname_weather ______________18.35 ____ 18.27

18 __ February1978 __________________18.23 ____ 23.60 

19 __ I Remember Atlantic252 _______ 18.03 ____ 23.60

20 __ Wold Topper ___________________17.84 ____ 24.93

21 __ Jonboy _________________________ 17.76 ____ 22.93

22 __ Leo97t _________________________17.70 ____ 25.93

23 __ The PIT _________________________17.55 ____ 24.93

24 __ Summer Shower _______________17.51 ____ 18.27

25 __ Mulzy __________________________ 17.01 ____ 27.60

26 __ shillitocettwo ___________________16.95 ____ 25.93

27 __ daniel* _________________________16.69 ____ 27.60

28 __ Frigid ___________________________16.55 ____ 24.93 

29 __ dancerwithwings ______________ 16.40 ____ 27.93

30 __ DR(S)NO _______________________ 16.68 ____ 26.60

31 __ bobd29 _________________________16.03 ____ 24.57__________1991-2020 15.95 (avg err 24.83)

32 __ ProlongedSnowLover __________ 15.38 ____ 25.40

33 __ Stationary Front ________________15.01 ____ 26.93 _________ 1993-2022 15.07 (avg err 25.80)

34 __ Godber1 ________________________14.92 ____ 26.80

35 __ Emmett Garland _______________ 12.90 ____ 29.93 __________1981-2010 13.27 (avg err 27.23)

36 __ Feb1991Blizzard _______________ 12.84 ____ 31.60

37 __ davehsug _______________________12.81 ____ 31.60

38 __ rwtwm __________________________11.63 ____ 32.27

39 __ B87 _____________________________10.71 ____ 36.60

40 __ syed2878 _______________________10.18 ____ 33.27

41 __ SteveB __________________________10.14 ____ 33.60

42 __ stewfox _________________________ 9.74 _____ 20.25 (June, Aug)

43 __ sunny vale _______________________9.57 ____ 36.27

44 __Somerset Girl ____________________ 9.40 _____ 0.00 (Aug only)

45__ summer8906 ____________________ 9.24 ____ 21.30 (July only)

46 __ chilly milly _______________________ 8.20 ____ 40.27

47 __ kold weather ____________________ 7.75 ____ 41.30 (July only)

48 __ Moorlander _____________________ 6.68 ____ 39.60

49 __ AddicksFan1981 _________________ 6.42 ____10.10 (Aug only)

50__ Mapantz __________________________6.20 ____ 42.90 (June, July)

51__ catbrainz _________________________ 5.70 ____ 46.15 (July, Aug only)

52 __ Weather Enthusiast91 ___________ 5.60 ____15.00 (Aug only)

53 __ Summer Blizzard ________________ 5.39 ____ 43.27

54 __ Methuselah ______________________ 4.86 ____ 41.93

55t__ Earthshine _______________________ 4.08 ____ 46.60

55t__ SLEETY ___________________________ 4.08 ____ 13.50 (June only)

57 __ Kirkcaldy Weather _______________ 2.97 ____ 17.70 (June only)

58 __ Norrance ________________________ 2.13 ____ 46.90 (June, July only)

59 __ mattstoke ________________________ 1.49 ____ 69.30 (July only)

60 __ Met. ______________________________ 0.00 ____ 61.00 (Aug only)

______________________________

These scores and ranks subject to adjustments when August values are confirmed. 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Roger J Smith
Aug 27 _ table had some Aug forecast values wrong due to failure to edit previous values, although scoring and ranks were correct as shown. (table to be edited again 2nd Sep)

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 20th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.9C +0.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged at 51.7mm 75.1% of the monthly average.

Warm night should push it up a little the weekend probably cancelling it out.

At the moment it's looking like summer will be joint 6th warmest on record for us.

Skewed significantly by June. July and August combined are looking very average. An odd summer.

[Sun Chaser]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Summers 2004 and 2020 had CETs of 16.2/16.3C and were wetter than average

Summer 2019 wasn't too far behind in wetness with a similar CET

 

Makes you think, having warm and wet summers is probably just the new normal now. 2019, 2020 and 2023 (2021 as well perhaps?) all fit this

[Dancerwithwings]

On 20/08/2023 at 23:06, Roger J Smith said:

We actually have six forecasts of 16.7, you would be second in points as we go by order of entry (the number in brackets) ... not to say 16.7 is favored over any other group in the high 16 range, but these are the six who said 16.7 ...

16.7 _ 61.0 __ SummerShower (15) ________

16.7 _ 75.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18) _______

16.7 _102.0__ summer blizzard (20) ________

16.7 _ 66.0 __ dancerwithwings (35) _______

16.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (52) ____________

16.7 _ 85.0 __ Somerset girl (L1-4) _________

Looks like you have a shot at best combined forecast too. 

Somerset girl also has a good first effort it would appear. 

Without pushing the dice, if that favoured CET came apparent Roger

How would the Summer League rankings look regarding the competition

No worries if you can’t make it so…..I’ll wait lol

[Addicks Fan 1981]

8 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

Makes you think, having warm and wet summers is probably just the new normal now. 2019, 2020 and 2023 (2021 as well perhaps?) all fit this

A climate change feature which is inevitable, when it comes down to overall CET for this summer I can foresee it being the same as 1997.    

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.9C +0.3C. Rainfall 75.6mm 76.6% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 21st

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

I think my CET guess of 17.1C is looking a tad on the high side now, an end figure of 16.7 to 16.9C looks most plausible given current output, so June likely the warmest month of the summer / year!

EWP however is looking decent. it's at 62mm up to the 20th, 10mm under my 72mm guess. Hopefully the last few days aren't too wet. A bit of uncertainty re how wet August ends, but this week looks fairly dry.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 17C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 52mm 75.6% of the monthly average.

A drop for today most likely probably finishing around 16.4C to 16.7C for us.

At the moment the joint 11th August on record.

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 22nd

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP still appears on track to end up 75-80 mm (est 63.5 mm recently with only small amounts added) ... preliminary scoring can stand for now.

CET only slight downward pressure around day six, could edge up to 17.1 then fall to 16.9 before levelling off. 16.7 to 17.1 is fairly certain for outcome, I believe.  

 

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET over the coming days, quite an average outlook. Will June be our warmest month though? When did this last happen? Quite rare. 

[Metwatch]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 Will June be our warmest month though? When did this last happen? Quite rare. 

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Metwatch

[damianslaw]

40 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

 

Ah thanks for that. Forgot it had been posted. All the 0's! 53 years ago last time, long time ago.

[Roger J Smith]

This info belongs in the September CET contest thread and I will move it over there when forecast submission period ends. It is cross-posted at present to the  CET  historical weather forum thread. 

September has only been warmest month of any year once, in 1890. Sep at 14.6 edged out July 14.5. 1865 came quite close with September (16.3) 0.3 behind July. 1729 (16.6) was only 0.2 lower than July. 

The highest daily CET mean has occurred in September 13 times, twice tying another earlier value (in the 251 years with daily data).

The change from CET legacy to v2.0 has not removed nor added to any of these, although some are revised up or down as shown. In fact only three annual CET max  daily means changed  month: 1878 moved from 20 July to 27 June, 1890 went from 5 Aug to 31 July, and 1903 from 9 July to 28 June and three years added a new tie in a different month while keeping the former sole record as part of the new tie (1915, 1919, 1941); also a small number of other years added or dropped ties on consecutive days in the years affected (1853 to 2021, data before 1853 was not altered other than the addition of daily data for Dec 1786, and there was no legacy data in summer 2022).

These are the years that saw a September annual maximum. 1985 is included in the list but had an October 1st maximum.

 

YEARS with MAX DAILY CET MEAN in SEP, OCT

YEAR _____ date ____  CET leg ___ CET v2.0 ____ (notes, values surpassed in September/October)

1780 _____ 1 Sep ____ 21.8 ______ 21.8 ________ 21.2 in May and two dates in July

1810 _____ 2 Sep ____ 20.5 ______ 20.5 ________ also 19.3 on 1st, 18.1 in Aug had been max

1823 ____ 14 Sep ____ 19.2 ______ 19.2 ______ tied 20 July 1823 19.2

1824 _____ 2 Sep _____21.1 ______ 21.1 _________20.5 in July

1880 _____ 4 Sep _____21.7 ______ 21.1 ________ 19.3 in Aug, 2nd to 5th Sep all beat or tied that (v2.0)

1889 ____ 12 Sep _____19.2 _____ 18.7 _________ 18.5 in July

1898 _____ 8 Sep _____ 21.3 _____ 21.6 _________ 21.3 22 August (v2.0)

1906 _____ 2 Sep _____ 22.6 _____ 22.3 _________ 19.9 22 Aug, 20.8 31 Aug, and 22.0 1 Sep (v2.0)

1908 _____30 Sep ____ 19.6 _____ 19.5 __________19.1 July, also 19.0 on 29 Sep (v2.0)

1913 ____ 27 Sep ____ 18.9 _____ 19.3 __________ 18.5 June, August

1949 _____ 5 Sep ____ 22.4 _____ 22.4 ___________ 21.4 June and 21.5 July

1954 _____ 1 Sep ____ 18.2 _____ 18.2 ___________ 17.7 27th May was not beaten until 17.9 31 Aug and 18.2 1st Sep (very cool summer)

1956 ____ 22 Sep ____ 18.7 _____ 18.7 ___ tied 8 July 1956 also 18.7

1985 _____ 1 Oct ____ 20.2 _____ 20.1 ____________ 19.8 on 25th July

__________________________

1895 came very close with 19.7 (27 Sep) not quite catching up to 19.9 (26 June) (v2.0 data).

Notable annual maxima in late August include 23.0 28 Aug 1942 and 21.6 30 Aug 1961. 

All the annual maxima can be seen in my CET thread in the historical weather forum (it is now at top of menu there as I cross-posted this, and these annual stats are on page one after daily records). I have not worked up tables of highest max for each year yet, a project for down time in the winter perhaps. 

As with the Junes that were warmest months, these September appearances have become dormant so perhaps this stat will wake up too, although it would need to overcome 21.7 on 12 June for this year, a value rarely seen in September. 

The highest value for September that was a daily record but not the annual maximum appears to be 21.4 (21st 2006 and 8th 2021), 21.3 (14th 2016) was close in that regard. 

_____________________________

Making an appearance at high daily mean does not guarantee a high daily maximum for the year. Of the 13 September cases above and near-miss 1895, we cannot compare the first four (no daily max, min until 1878) but of the rest of the ten cases, only four appear to have set a daily maximum for the year. Those were 1880 (27.4 4th Sep easily saw off 24.3 from 11 Aug, 2nd and 3rd were also warmer), 1898 (27.1 8th and 17th Sep edged out 26.7 from 12 Aug); 1906 easily (31.2 1st, 31.1 2nd surpassed 29.9 on 31 Aug and that had blown away various other days earlier in the mid 20s), and 1954 with 26.6 on 1 Sep well ahead of second place 23.8 on 12 May. 

1889 (23.9 vs 24.4 in Aug), 1895 (25.7 vs 26.8 in late May), 1908 (24.4 vs 27.4 in July), 1913 (24.0 vs 25.8 in June), 1949 (26.4 vs 30.2 in July) and 1956 (22.9 vs 24.0 in July) all failed to beat a previous high maximum so I think it's fair to say that warmer nights must do a lot of the work to get September days over the line as daily mean victors.

1st Oct 1985 (25.5) also failed to take high max away from 25 July at 26.0. ... 30 Sep (27.1) and 1 Oct 2011 (27.0) also could not quite match 27 June 27.8.

(edit) _ Earlier I said ... It's possible there are some reverse cases, high max in Sep not associated with high daily mean for the year, but I doubt it. ... this inspired me to check the annual values which I have recently posted in the historical weather thread. Two other years managed a September high maximum, 1891 had 25.8 (10th) and 1919 had 27.1 (11th). These two missed being annual high daily means by 0.8 in 1891 (17.8 vs 18.6 on 25 June) and by 0.2 in 1919 (19.3 vs 19.5 11 June and 16 Aug). 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 17C +0.4C  above average. Rainfall 52.6mm 76.5% of the monthly average

With more sun around yesterday then expected temperatures were high enough to stop a drop. There could well be rise for today though.

Edited August 24, 2023 by The PIT