August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

The averages are shown for the past forty-two years 1981-2022, and the warmest third are bold type, middle third italic and coolest third underlined. All temperature data in this post have been converted to v2.0.1.0 which may explain any slightly unfamiliar looking numbers you see. Note also monthly rankings are separated by second decimal which is not listed here.

 

25.2 ... warmest August day (12th, 2020)

24.8 ... previous warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.1 ... warmest August, 1995

19.0 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 2022

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fifth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... sixth and seventh warmest Augusts (2003, 1747)

18.2 ... eighth warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... ninth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... tenth warmest August, 1990

17.8 ... 11th, 12th warmest 1736, 1899

17.7 ... 13th and 14th warmest August 2020, 1984

17.6 ... 15th warmest (tied one decimal with 1976 and four earlier years)  2004 

17.4 ... 1983

17.2 ... 2019 

17.1 ... 1991, 2016

17.0 ... 2002, 2013 

16.9 ... 

16.8 ... 2001, 2018 

16.7 ... 2000, 2009, 2012

16.6 ... average of 1991-2020, average of 1993-2022, and 2001-2022 and 1989, 1996

16.5 ... 

16.45 ... average of 1981-2010 (16.450) _ round as you wish

16.3 ... 1981, 2008

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1999, 2005, 2006

16.1 ... 

16.0 ... 1994, 1998, 2015, 2021 

15.9 ... 

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.7 ... average of 1659-2022 (15.68) and 1982, 2017

15.6 ... 1987

15.5 ... 2007, 2011

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, 2010

15.3 ... 1992

15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700, 2014

14.7 ... 1985 

14.6 ... 1993

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- t16th coldest with 1830

13.6 ... 10th to 15th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied (one dec) 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)

13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)

12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.9 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1810) ... earliest sub-10 mean value in August (legacy was 9.5 1888 same date)

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816 (unchanged from CET legacy)

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Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Monday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Thursday, 3rd of August.

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EWP forecasts

 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2022 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2022 (2004) 

125.2 mm __ August 2020

  82.9 mm ___ average for all years 1766 to 2022

  82.3 mm ___ average for 1991-2020

  79.9 mm ___ average for 1993-2022

  75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

  14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

 __ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2022 (1995) 

_____________________________________________________________________

Recent years:

... ... ... 2022 _ 37.8 mm ... ... 2021 _ 54.3 mm ... ... 2020 _125.2 mm ... ... 2019 _ 86.8 mm ... ... 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm

... ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ... ... 2013 _ 66.1 mm ... ... 2012 _ 94.2 mm ... ... 2011 _ 91.4 mm ... ... 2010 _ 107.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.5 mm

... ... ... 2008 _ 116.5 mm ... ... 2007 _ 60.7 mm ... ... 2006 _ 89.2 mm ... ... 2005 _ 62.5 mm ... ... 2004 _ 156.5 mm ... ... 2003 _ 21.3 mm ... ... 2002 _ 75.8 mm

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Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

Good luck !! 

[Dancerwithwings]

Roger, I may give my guess a big delayed response, the way July is panning out….August is anybody's guess right now

[JeffC]

17.2 degrees C and 85 mm please

[Weather26]

Well now the floodgates have opened i can see some of August being the same as July.

16.9C and 88mm please.

[B87]

17.5c, 50mm

[Summer18]

16.6 & 82mm

[Bobd29]

16.9C and 81.6 mm for-me please.

[Typhoon John]

17.6c please

[Polar Gael]

17.0°C and 80.2mm for me please.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for an August with temps around average this year but much more settled than this month.

16.4°C and 70mm for me please.

Edited July 22, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Addicks Fan 1981]

As things stand 16.2.   

[Earthshine]

18.4°C and 55 mm please

[Don]

10 hours ago, Earthshine said:

18.4°C and 55 mm please

Steroid plume gate to return?! 

[Frigid]

I'll go for 16.6C and 85mm.

June will probably be our warmest month, like how December last winter was our coldest month. 

[Catbrainz]

Going for 17.0C and 54mm. Im feeling a benign westerly/southwesterly August but not overly cyclonic and with less troughing than July. 

[Methuselah]

19.0C and 49mm please, Roger? 

[sunny_vale]

17.3C and 44mm please  perhaps we will see things settling down and warming up compared to now, with a mini notable heatwave at some point around the middle of the month (total guess of course). Nothing out of this world, but a decent summer month. 

[chilly milly]

16.3c and 90mm please

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

I'll go for 16.6C and 85mm.

June will probably be our warmest month, like how December last winter was our coldest month. 

I may consider upping my guess in a weeks time but it all depends on the feedback I suppose.    

[Leo97t]

17.0c and 65mm

[Shillitocettwo]

  I think August will be horrific. CET 15.0.C even cooler than 2014. It will start unsettled and cool and apart from one half decent weekend with a ridge of high pressure the run of Lows will be relentless with some cool days and a few quite shockingly cold nights, even a widespread ground frost around Bank Holiday.

   The heat will remain in the Med

[Frigid]

5 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  I think August will be horrific. CET 15.0.C even cooler than 2014. It will start unsettled and cool and apart from one half decent weekend with a ridge of high pressure the run of Lows will be relentless with some cool days and a few quite shockingly cold nights, even a widespread ground frost around Bank Holiday.

   The heat will remain in the Med

Reminds me a bit of August 2020 where we had nights at low single digits, never knew it could get that cold in late summer. 

[SummerShower]

It's a tough one to predict tbh.  It won't be as bad as say 1986,  but equally it won't be as good as last year.

I'll go fairly average at 16.7C and 61mm

[Don]

9 hours ago, Frigid said:

Reminds me a bit of August 2020 where we had nights at low single digits, never knew it could get that cold in late summer. 

August 2020 was a strange month as the second week was exceptionally hot, but after mid month, it turned much cooler and stormy and at times autumnal.  However, overall it was still a very warm month with a CET of 17.7C.

[SteveB]

17.1c and 79mm please.