August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[February1978]

17.1c and 91mm please

Hopefully a bit warmer & drier later

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries edited to include all forecasts posted to current time. Will leave edited version back a few posts and add any late entries appearing after current post. Absolute deadline is end of day 3rd of August. Consensus values are 16.8 C and 81.8 mm rain. 

(11 Aug edit ... to avoid confusion I moved table of entries)

Table of forecasts for August 2023

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry)

18.4 _ 55.0 __ Earthshine ( 9 ) _________________16.7 _ 61.0 __ SummerShower (15) ________

17.8 _ 72.0 __ snowray (41) ____________________16.7 _ 75.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18) _______

17.6 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 6 ) _____________16.7 _102.0__ summer blizzard (20) ________

17.6 _ 67.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (39) ______16.7 _ 66.0 __ dancerwithwings (35) _______

17.5 _ 50.0  __ B87 ( 3 ) ________________________ 16.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (52) ____________

17.5 _ 62.0 __ Stationary Front (33) ____________16.7 _ 85.0 __ Somerset girl (L1-4) ________

17.5 _ 93.0 __ Emmett Garland (45) ___________ 16.6 _ 82.0 __ Summer18 ( 4 ) _____________

17.4 _ 82.7 __ Roger J Smith (28) _______________16.6 _ 85.0 __ Frigid (10) ___________________

17.3 _ 44.0 __ sunny vale (12) __________________16.6 _ 87.2 __ Midlands Ice Age (38) _______

17.3 _ 65.0 __ Wold Topper (23) ________________16.6 _ 82.3 __ 1991-2020 average

17.2 _ 85.0 __ Jeff C ( 1 ) ________________________16.6 _ 79.9 __ 1993-2022 average

17.2 _ 84.0 __ seaside60 ( L1-1 ) ________________16.5 _ 75.6 __ 1981-2010 average

17.2 _ --- ---__ Kentish Man ( L1-5 ) _____________16.5 _ 95.0 __ DR(S)NO (26) ___________________

17.1 _ 79.0 __ SteveB (16) ______________________ 16.4 _ 70.0 __ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 8 ) ____

17.1 _ 91.0 __ February1978 (54) _______________16.4 _ 85.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ________

17.1 _ 72.0 __ Metwatch ( L1-2 ) ________________16.3 _130.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) __ 

17.0 _ 80.2 __ Polar Gael ( 7 )  __________________16.3 _ 80.0 __ The PIT (27) ___________________

17.0 _ 54.0 __ catbrainz (11) ____________________16.2 _ 67.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (48) ___________

17.0 _ 65.0 __ leo97t (13) _______________________16.1 _ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow (37) _______

17.0 _100.0__ J 10 (47) __________________________16.0 _ 49.0 __ Methuselah (24) _______________ 

17.0 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (36) ________________ 16.0 _ 80.0 __ daniel* (43) _____________________

17.0 _ 55.0 __ rwtwm (44) ______________________ 15.9 _ 93.0 __ virtualsphere (29) ______________

16.9 _ 88.0 __ Weather26 ( 2 ) _________________ 15.9 _112.0__ noname_weather (L1-3) ________

16.9 _ 81.6 __ bobd29 ( 5 ) _____________________ 15.8 _100.0__ Godber 1 (49) ___________________

16.9 _ 45.0 __ syed2878 (21) ____________________15.8 _105.0__ davehsug (51) __________________

16.9 _ 92.2 __ Reef (34) _________________________ 15.7 _ 82.9 _ average of all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022)

16.9 _ 84.0 __ Mr Maunder (46) ________________ 15.0 _117.0__ shillitocettwo (14) _____________

16.9 _ 70.0 __ Mulzy (53) _______________________ 15.0 _ 88.0 __ Neil N (19) _____________________

16.8 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (22) _______________ 15.0 _120.0_ Moorlander (42) _______________

16.8 _ 81.0 __ jonboy (40) ______________________ 14.9 _146.0__ Met. (25) ______________________

16.8 _ 88.0 __ Don (50) _________________________ 14.7 _112.0__ chilly milly (32) ________________

16.8 _ 82.7 __ consensus ______________________ 14.0 _123.0__ stewfox (30) ___________________

 

___ 54 on time forecasts, and five so far one day late, 59 total, consensus 16.8 ___

 ============================================

 

EWP forecasts in order 

146_Met. .. 130_IRem .. 123_stew .. 120_Moor .. 117_shil ... 112_cm,non^ .. 105_dave .. 102_sb ..

100_ J10, godb .. 95_DR(S) .. 93_ virt, EG .. 92.2_Reef .. 91_Feb78 .. 88_wx26, NN, Don ..

 87.2_MIA .. 85_Jeff, Frig, WxObs, som g^ .. 84_MrM, sea^ ..  82.7_RJS ..

 82.3_91-20  .. 82_sum18 .. 81.6_bobd .. 81_jon .. 80.2_PG .. 80_PIT, dan ..

 79.9_93-22 .. 79_Ste .. 75.6_81-10 .. 75_Add .. 72_snow, met^ .. 70_WxEn, Mul ..

 67_pSL, Feb91 .. 66_dww .. 65_leo, WT ..  62_SF .. 61_SumSh ..

 55_Earth, rwtwm .. 54_cat .. 50_B87 .. 49_Meth 45_syed .. 44_sv 

 

___ 53 total forecasts, consensus 82.7 mm ___ ^ one day late (four so far)

===============================

 

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[seaside 60]

Had it ready to go but forgot to enter it. 

17.2c

84mm

[Metwatch]

Oops - Forget to send it last night.

I'll go for 17.1C and 72mm, thanks.

Won't even try to guess what it will be like after the July we just had, but there has got to be some warmth mixed in this month.

 

[Shillitocettwo]

On 31/07/2023 at 13:33, Roger J Smith said:

You don't give a number for EWP but I'm sensing about 120? Anyway perhaps add one? 

117mm and I accept the late penalty for this bit lol

[noname_weather]

15.9C and 112mm. Sorry.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Table of entries edited to include all forecasts posted to current time. Will leave edited version back a few posts and add any late entries appearing after current post. Absolute deadline is end of day 3rd of August. Consensus values are 16.8 C and 81.8 mm rain. 

 

How do you see the CET to the 14th as well as the EWP?     

[Somerset girl]

16.7 degrees centigrade and 85mm . 

[Roger J Smith]

Average and Extreme values of the CET 1772-2022 with 1981-2010 averages

_ temps from v2.0 _

Date ____ Avg CET __ cum CET ____MAX 1772-2022 _MIN 1772-2022 __Running CET extremes 1772-2022

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.8 1995 _____ 11.9 1888,1907 __ 24.8 _ 1995 ____ 11.9 _ 1888,1907

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 10.9 1912 ________ 24.7 _ 1995 ____ 12.1 _1912 (12.15 1822)

_03 ______17.0 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.8 1912 ________ 24.3 _ 1995 ____ 11.7 _ 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 23.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.0 _ 1865

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 22.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1865

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.1 1860 ________ 21.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1812

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 ________ 21.5 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.8 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 ________ 21.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_09 ______16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 10.9 1931 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_10______ 16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 11.0 1892 ________ 21.3 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

 

_11 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 24.2 2020 _____ 10.6 1902 ________ 21.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 25.2 2020 _____ 10.3 1912 ________ 21.0*_ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 1911 _____ 10.6 1881 ________ 21.0*_ 1975 ____ 12.7 _1812, 1912

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 2022 _____ 11.0 1912 ________ 20.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.5  _1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 21.7 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 ________ 20.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.9 1810 ________ 20.4 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_17 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 ________ 20.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 1912

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1947 _____ 10.3 1830 ________ 19.9 _ 1975,95 __ 12.8 1912

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.2 1920 ________ 20.1 _ 1995*____ 12.9 1912

 

_21 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 ________ 20.18_ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 ________ 20.23_ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1877 ________ 20.16_ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________21.5 1955,1990 __9.1 1864 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 13.0 1912

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.8 2019 ____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864_ 20.0 _1995 ____13.0_1912

_26 ______15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.6 1869 ______ 8.8 1864 ________ 19.9 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 23.1 1930 _____ 11.1 1785,1896 __ 19.7 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.6 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.1 1912 ________ 19.5 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 22.2 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 ________ 19.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 ________ 19.9 2008 ______ 9.6 1890 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

  

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.5 ________ 21.3 2005 ______ 9.2 1833 ________ 19.14 _ 1995 ____ 12.90 1912

__________________________________________________________________

* The running CET on 12-13 in 2020 was 19.8 (12th, 13th), below the 1975 records. ... also close:

_ 2003 was 20.8 on 12th .. 2022 was 19.6,19.7,19.6,19.5,19.5 14th-18th, and 1997 was 20.0 on 20th

Note also 31st 2005 was boosted past a previous record from 1906 but that year held on to 1-2 Sep.

Another record lost in the v2.0 rampage was 18th 1893 (formerly 22.6) reduced to 22.0; 1947 took it away at 22.1.

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

 

1991-2020 daily averages and running means (v2.0)

_01 __ 17.4 __ 17.4 _____ 11 __ 17.0 __ 17.3 ___ 21 __ 16.6 __ 17.0 ___ 31 ___ 14.9 __ 16.6

_02 __ 17.3 __ 17.4 _____ 12 __ 17.2 __ 17.3 ___ 22 __ 16.7 __ 17.0 

_03 __ 17.4 __ 17.4 _____ 13 __ 16.4 __ 17.2 ___ 23 __ 16.5 __ 17.0 

_04 __ 17.2 __ 17.3 _____ 14 __ 16.6 __ 17.2 ___ 24 __ 15.9 __ 16.9 

_05 __ 17.6 __ 17.4 _____ 15 __ 16.8 __ 17.1 ___ 25 __ 16.0 __ 16.9  

_06 __ 17.7 __ 17.4 _____ 16 __ 16.5 __ 17.1 ___ 26 __ 16.0 __ 16.9

_07 __ 17.4 __ 17.4 _____ 17 __ 16.7 __ 17.1 ___ 27 __ 15.5 __ 16.9

_08 __ 16.9 __ 17.4 _____ 18 __ 16.7 __ 17.0 ___ 28 __ 15.4 __ 16.8

_09 __ 17.0 __ 17.3 _____ 19 __ 16.7 __ 17.0 ___ 29 __ 15.1 __ 16.8

_10 __ 17.0 __ 17.3 _____ 20 __ 16.6 __ 17.0 ___ 30 __ 15.2 __ 16.7  

====================================

Edited August 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Kentish Man]

17.2C thanks

[Roger J Smith]

11 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

How do you see the CET to the 14th as well as the EWP?     

en route to 17.4 and 82.7 mm. (about 16.2 and 45 mm maybe)

[Summer Sun]

16.7c to the 1st

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Could be on course for coldest first week to August since... quite some time I think. Any stats.. 2017 was quite a cool start.

Edited August 2, 2023 by damianslaw

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could be on course for coldest first week to August since... quite some time I think. Any stats.. 2017 was quite a cool start.

2017 August had too an EQBO, what we are having now is all part of our wave 4 pattern that the UKMO suggested.   

[Roger J Smith]

The lowest running means for 1-7 August since 12.6, the record low value (1812) include (up to 1912) 13.7 (1860), 13.6 (1833, 1854, 1888), 13.5 (1822 and 1823, 1891), to second coldest 13.0 (1912). The coldest since 1912 was third coldest 13.3 in 1956 (1920 was 13.6 and 1922 13.7), and coldest since 1956 was 13.5 in 1966. (1962 was 14.0 and 1965 was 14.5). The coldest since 1966 was 13.8 in 1987 (14.2 in 1985 and 14.3 in 1986). Coldest since 1987 is 15.1 in 1993. 2017 was 15.9 and 2010 was 15.7. 2021 was 15.6 (coldest recent).

The lowest values then for 1-7 Aug CET are 

01 __ 12.6 __ 1812

02 __ 13.0 __ 1912

03 __ 13.3 __ 1956

t04 _ 13.5 __ 1822, 1823, 1891, 1966

t08 _ 13.6 __ 1833, 1854, 1888, 1920

t12 _ 13.7 __ 1860, 1922

t14 _ 13.8 __ 1848, 1987

t16 _ 13.9 __ 1843, 1844, 1865, 1902

20 __ 14.0 __ 1962

t21 _ 14.1 __ 1809, 1816, 1885

t24 _ 14.2 __ 1786, 1985

t26 _ 14.3 __ 1831, 1879, 1896, 1929, 1986

t31 _ 14.4 __ 1810, 1845, 1867, 1895, 1900, 1907

 

 

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 2nd

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP off to a fast start again with 8.8 mm on 1st, and probably at least 10 mm more yesterday (2nd), so it's close to 20 mm already. The GFS suggests a grid average of about 35-40 mm for next sixteen days, a relatively normal amount, so the pace will slow down to reach about 55-60 mm by 19th. 

CET will drop off steadily to about Monday, may bottom out near 15.0, then a very warm spell develops, lasting to about the 17th. Daily means near 20 C are possible and the CET could rise to 18 C before levelling off and possibly dropping back a bit by 19th, so in the 17s seems possible. It's a very similar pattern to August 1893 (6th had CET of 12.6, then a long warm spell 8th-22nd with means 18-22 C, much cooler last week) and also 1822 (June very warm, July cool, early August cold, warmed up considerably after mid-month, warmest 21st-22nd, then turned cool again). 

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The lowest running means for 1-7 August since 12.6, the record low value (1812) include (up to 1912) 13.7 (1860), 13.6 (1833, 1854, 1888), 13.5 (1822 and 1823, 1891), to second coldest 13.0 (1912). The coldest since 1912 was third coldest 13.3 in 1956 (1920 was 13.6 and 1922 13.7), and coldest since 1956 was 13.5 in 1966. (1962 was 14.0 and 1965 was 14.5). The coldest since 1966 was 13.8 in 1987 (14.2 in 1985 and 14.3 in 1986). Coldest since 1987 is 15.1 in 1993. 2017 was 15.9 and 2010 was 15.7. 2021 was 15.6 (coldest recent).

The lowest values then for 1-7 Aug CET are 

01 __ 12.6 __ 1812

02 __ 13.0 __ 1912

03 __ 13.3 __ 1956

t04 _ 13.5 __ 1822, 1823, 1891, 1966

t08 _ 13.6 __ 1833, 1854, 1888, 1920

t12 _ 13.7 __ 1860, 1922

t14 _ 13.8 __ 1848, 1987

t16 _ 13.9 __ 1843, 1844, 1865, 1902

20 __ 14.0 __ 1962

t21 _ 14.1 __ 1809, 1816, 1885

t24 _ 14.2 __ 1786, 1985

t26 _ 14.3 __ 1831, 1879, 1896, 1929, 1986

t31 _ 14.4 __ 1810, 1845, 1867, 1895, 1900, 1907

 

 

Great thanks for these, 2021 was a cold start, 2010 and 2017. Let's see if we are in the 15s by the 7th. I suspect is is mins keeping values higher, maxes notably low. 

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP off to a fast start again with 8.8 mm on 1st, and probably at least 10 mm more yesterday (2nd), so it's close to 20 mm already. The GFS suggests a grid average of about 35-40 mm for next sixteen days, a relatively normal amount, so the pace will slow down to reach about 55-60 mm by 19th. 

CET will drop off steadily to about Monday, may bottom out near 15.0, then a very warm spell develops, lasting to about the 17th. Daily means near 20 C are possible and the CET could rise to 18 C before levelling off and possibly dropping back a bit by 19th, so in the 17s seems possible. It's a very similar pattern to August 1893 (6th had CET of 12.6, then a long warm spell 8th-22nd with means 18-22 C, much cooler last week) and also 1822 (June very warm, July cool, early August cold, warmed up considerably after mid-month, warmest 21st-22nd, then turned cool again). 

Mmm not sure we will see such a warm up.

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 3rd

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Weather26]

20 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Great thanks for these, 2021 was a cold start, 2010 and 2017. Let's see if we are in the 15s by the 7th. I suspect is is mins keeping values higher, maxes notably low. 

Mmm not sure we will see such a warm up.

Well we seem to be going for a short 1-2 day warm up around Thursday next week-of course we end up back to square one and unsettled again by next weekend.

[reef]

I don't think it'll be too low for the first week. Unlike July, the mins are indeed keeping the value up. Only three days in but the min anomaly is +1.9C and max -0.2C.

There's already signs we'll be above average again this month. It warms up next week and then even though it looks unsettled after, its still pretty warm. It could well be an August 2004 type month - warm and wet.

The irony is we only need a 17.2C this month for it to be a top 20 warmest summer in the CET series. It almost seems undeserved if it gets it.  

[Relativistic]

26 minutes ago, reef said:

I don't think it'll be too low for the first week. Unlike July, the mins are indeed keeping the value up. Only three days in but the min anomaly is +1.9C and max -0.2C.

There's already signs we'll be above average again this month. It warms up next week and then even though it looks unsettled after, its still pretty warm. It could well be an August 2004 type month - warm and wet.

The irony is we only need a 17.2C this month for it to be a top 20 warmest summer in the CET series. It almost seems undeserved if it gets it.  

I thought the same initially. It's easy to forget how hot June was given the unsettled weather since.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I don't think it'll be too low for the first week. Unlike July, the mins are indeed keeping the value up. Only three days in but the min anomaly is +1.9C and max -0.2C.

There's already signs we'll be above average again this month. It warms up next week and then even though it looks unsettled after, its still pretty warm. It could well be an August 2004 type month - warm and wet.

The irony is we only need a 17.2C this month for it to be a top 20 warmest summer in the CET series. It almost seems undeserved if it gets it.  

A summer skewed by an anomalous warm first 3 weeks. Average means tell you little about what actually happened. Need to see the weeky mean temp variance to understand fully the season as a whole. If we end up top 20, it certainly won't be remembered as a particularly warm one despite the very warm start which in itself won't be remembered as it delivered a high of only 32 degrees. We may see a notably warm last 2 weeks, but I'll be surprised if we do, given long range forecast is for brief warm spells a la what is about to happen 48 hrs next week by the looks of things.

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

In general a high correlation with 1822 and the winter of 1822-23 had some very cold spells. May be meaningless given the climate change aspects of a warmer Atlantic. But just for interest, here are monthly values for June 1822 to May 1823 ...

17.1 _ 15.6 _ 15.2 _ 12.4 _ 10.7 _ 8.2 _ 1.6 _ -0.1 _ 3.1 _ 5.0 _ 6.7 _ 12.2

The summer of 1823 was generally quite cool but if there's any merit to this comparison I would not expect it to go much past a cold spell in winter anyway. We are unlikely to see summers as cool as 1823 nowadays (all three months below 15.0, in fact the warmest month (Aug) only 14.4, a value only exceeded by summers of 1907 and 1922 (max of 14.3 Aug 1907, 13.8 June 1922) and equalled by 1920 (June 14.4). Since 1922 the lowest max CET value is 14.6 (Aug 1954).

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 4th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average