August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Also 1.0 below the 1991-2020 average. Looking at my data posted on 2nd, 6th of Aug (17.7) is nowadays one of the warmest days, equal to a few others in July IIRC. Running mean to the 6th would be 17.4 1991-2020. This despite losing very warm Aug 1990 from the averages. 

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.3c to the 4th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Expecting a notable drop tomorrow's value, given how low maxes have been today, with quite cool minima expected tonight as well. A notably cold CET day for 5 August I imagine. 

Also need to note August does tend to be a cooling month, first week in August I think is on average warmest of the year, thanks namely to high minima, I think third or last week July tends to bring highest maxima. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Expecting a notable drop tomorrow's value, given how low maxes have been today, with quite cool minima expected tonight as well. A notably cold CET day for 5 August I imagine. 

Also need to note August does tend to be a cooling month, first week in August I think is on average warmest of the year, thanks namely to high minima, I think third or last week July tends to bring highest maxima. 

Think @Roger J Smithis right as the CET will probably have a spike and then a stabilisation.    

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Expecting a notable drop tomorrow's value, given how low maxes have been today, with quite cool minima expected tonight as well. A notably cold CET day for 5 August I imagine. 

Also need to note August does tend to be a cooling month, first week in August I think is on average warmest of the year, thanks namely to high minima, I think third or last week July tends to bring highest maxima. 

I’m sure after today, this weeks heat as in Thursdays mid 20’s will be cancelled out regarding any upbringing with CET….but plenty of days forthcoming as yet 

[damianslaw]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m sure after today, this weeks heat as in Thursdays mid 20’s will be cancelled out regarding any upbringing with CET….but plenty of days forthcoming as yet 

Yes probably see a balance, and by mid month something close to average disguising the notable coolness at times, thanks to milder minima and what looks a brief warmer airstream or perhaps two.

The CET tells you little about what actually happened in a month, need to see the day to day mean max and mins. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.4C. -1.3C below normal. Rainfall 38.2mm 55.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.8c to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

As expected, a big drop after yesterday's unseasonal chill!

[Scorcher]

Absolutely terrible start to the month. I can't recall feeling this depressed about a summer for a long time.

Only 8.3 hours of sunshine here up to yesterday and 29.4mm of rain. Probably at least 35mm after today.

Absolutely sick to the teeth of constant darkness and chilly westerlies.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday not quite a record low max (16.4), record was 15.0 in 1941. But it was the coldest 5th of Aug CET max since then. 

[Roger J Smith]

Pattern change ahead, warm and dry (in England, wet in parts of Ireland and Scotland). EWP is around 35 mm after yesterday's locally heavy rainfalls, but GFS says to add only 10 mm or less to that over coming sixteen days. If true, that would bring rainfall to 45 mm by 22nd, barely reaching our lowest forecast amount (sunny_vale has 44 mm). 

Would say that CET is likely to soar during this period too, today and Monday won't produce much change then a steady rise sets in. My estimate is that we would reach almost 18 C by 20th. It's going to go down as a strange summer indeed if June and August are both top ten and July near the middle of long-term rankings and bottom third of recent ones. I am going to dig up that post I made in early July about summers like this (warm_cool_warm) to add to this post by later edit. 

[Roger J Smith]

It's back ... and now it seems to be happening ... 

Most notable cool July between warm June and August summers

(posted in early July) _ Just for some early entertainment before the GFS inevitably loses the plot and there is no cool July after all, here's a look at the few cases where July was below 16.5 and both June and August were warm (June above 14.8 and August above 16.8) ... they are unusual summers, only ten qualified and an eleventh was promoted as close enough, and then about a dozen more were considered near misses. Some of these qualifiers are rather subdued cases of what I was trying to find so not all of these summers probably seemed unusual. 1743 and 1842 are perhaps the most striking examples of a "cool middle" July with two warm months on either side.

 

YEAR _____ JUNE __ JULY __ AUG (CET) ___ Total qualifying margin (above 14.8, below 16.5, above 16.8)

1679 _____ 15.5 __ 16.0 __ 17.0 __________ 1.4 

1736 _____ 15.7 __ 16.4 __ 17.8 __________ 2.0

1743 _____ 15.6 __ 14.9 __ 16.9 __________ 2.5

1801 _____ 14.8 __ 16.1 __ 17.1 __________ 0.7

1835 _____ 15.0 __ 16.4 __ 16.9 __________ 0.4

1842 _____ 15.6 __ 14.5 __ 17.1 __________ 3.1

1857 _____ 15.8 __ 16.4 __ 17.4 __________ 1.7

1893 _____ 15.6 __ 16.4 __ 17.4 __________ 1.5

2000 _____ 14.9 __ 15.3 __ 16.7 __________ 1.3 (Aug given a pass although 0.1 below criterion, margin of error and rare recent example)

2004 _____ 15.3 __ 15.7 __ 17.6 __________ 2.1 

2020 _____ 15.3 __ 15.7 __ 17.7 __________ 2.2

 

_________________

near misses for criteria used ...

(1676 ____ 18.0 __ 16.0 __ 16.5) _ close to meeting the criteria and notably warm for June, as a Maunder year it may be within margin of error

(1706 ____ 15.6 __ 16.1 __ 16.7) _ for that early in the CET record, I would give this one a pass but it is a near miss

(1731 ____ 15.6 __ 16.3 __ 16.7) _ more or less same as 1706, borderline case. 

(1741 ____ 15.2 __ 15.6 __ 16.7) _ very close to qualifying, the August mean was 0.1 lower than criteria but July very cool. 

(1831 ____ 15.4 __ 16.7 __ 16.9) _ this one is borderline because July isn't quite cool enough, the other numbers are in range but August is weak too

(1846 ____ 18.2 __ 16.5 __ 16.6) _ July was not all that cool and August didn't warm up from it, but this summer of June's extreme warmth does almost qualify. 

(1936 ____ 14.7 __ 15.3 __ 16.1) _ Trying but not quite warm enough at either end to qualify.

(1942 ____ 14.4 __ 15.5 __ 16.6) _ very close to qualifying 

(1947 ____ very hot late May early June and most of August, but July also warm enough at 17.0 that it does not qualify and isn't really a "near miss")

(1953 ____ 14.4 __ 15.5 __ 16.2) _ similar to 1936

(1965 ____ 14.7 __ 14.0 __ 14.9) _ misses mainly due to August staying rather cold, but certainly the right signal from July

(1970 ____ 16.4 __ 15.2 __ 16.0) _ August does not qualify but this was quite a strong signal anyway. 

(1973 ____ 14.8 __ 15.6 __ 16.5) _ borderline just misses qualifying

(2009 ____ 14.7 __ 16.3 __ 16.7) _ all three months just miss criteria

===================

There are of course plenty of cases of August being a lot warmer than July but they are excluded here if June is much below mid-14s. 

(1822 17.1 _ 15.6 _ 15.2, quite warm for a few days around 20 Aug, but by the numbers not a qualifier here)

 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yesterday not quite a record low max (16.4), record was 15.0 in 1941. But it was the coldest 5th of Aug CET max since then. 

That is a notable statistic, coldest CET max 5 Aug for 82 years.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Pattern change ahead, warm and dry (in England, wet in parts of Ireland and Scotland). EWP is around 35 mm after yesterday's locally heavy rainfalls, but GFS says to add only 10 mm or less to that over coming sixteen days. If true, that would bring rainfall to 45 mm by 22nd, barely reaching our lowest forecast amount (sunny_vale has 44 mm). 

Would say that CET is likely to soar during this period too, today and Monday won't produce much change then a steady rise sets in. My estimate is that we would reach almost 18 C by 20th. It's going to go down as a strange summer indeed if June and August are both top ten and July near the middle of long-term rankings and bottom third of recent ones. I am going to dig up that post I made in early July about summers like this (warm_cool_warm) to add to this post by later edit. 

I'll be surprised if we are close to 18 degrees by 20th, outlook is a warm up but I'm not seeing anything significant. Let's see.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Pattern change ahead, warm and dry (in England, wet in parts of Ireland and Scotland). EWP is around 35 mm after yesterday's locally heavy rainfalls, but GFS says to add only 10 mm or less to that over coming sixteen days. If true, that would bring rainfall to 45 mm by 22nd, barely reaching our lowest forecast amount (sunny_vale has 44 mm). 

Would say that CET is likely to soar during this period too, today and Monday won't produce much change then a steady rise sets in. My estimate is that we would reach almost 18 C by 20th. It's going to go down as a strange summer indeed if June and August are both top ten and July near the middle of long-term rankings and bottom third of recent ones. I am going to dig up that post I made in early July about summers like this (warm_cool_warm) to add to this post by later edit. 

Where do see nearly 18C coming from Roger, as the model output does not look particularly warm, albeit warmer than July?

Edited August 6, 2023 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

Going by GFS numerical output, basically, of course that could be wrong or maybe I am overestimating what I see on it. Quite a few days with means in the range of 19 to 21. Would say low to mid 17 range quite high probability, maybe 18 is a bit high. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS op is certainly hinting at some warm spells this month!

[Don]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS op is certainly hinting at some warm spells this month!

The op is going off on one in FI!  However, as I've said before, that's exactly what it did in the run up to the record breaking heat spikes in 2019 and in July last year!

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 6th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

21 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Absolutely terrible start to the month. I can't recall feeling this depressed about a summer for a long time.

Only 8.3 hours of sunshine here up to yesterday and 29.4mm of rain. Probably at least 35mm after today.

Absolutely sick to the teeth of constant darkness and chilly westerlies.

Yep, just 5.2hrs and 47.4mm in the first 6 days here too. Very poor.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Yep, just 5.2hrs and 47.4mm in the first 6 days here too. Very poor.

Seems like it's been even worse in the east. Not what you expect in August.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.3C -1.3C below average. Rainfall unchanged at 38.2mm 55.5% of the monthly average

[damianslaw]

Another chilly day today, another drop tomorrow.

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 7th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.4c to the 7th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Will probably bottom out after today and then start it's rise?