August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

Not much above average in the end then and below recent means. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

38 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Can imagine what this summers CET would have been if we'd not had as lovely of a June as we had this year.  Last summer was much warmer...

Nevertheless it's still our 8th consecutive summer of where the CET was above 16, the last time our summer CET was below 16 was 2015.    

Edited September 1, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[TwisterGirl81]

3 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Nevertheless it's still our 8th consecutive summer of where the CET was above 16, the last time our CET in summer was below 16 was 2015.    

It certainly would have been less than 16c this year had we not had the warm June weather, beggars belief what it would have been, probably the lowest in a long while

Edited September 1, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

It certainly would have been less than 16c this year had we not had the warm June weather, beggers belief what it would have been, probably the lowest in a long while

The warm Atlantic I think ensured the summer wasn't a total flop.   

[TwisterGirl81]

4 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The warm Atlantic I think ensured the summer wasn't a total flop.   

Wasn't it the warm Atlantic that played a part in our poor July and parts of August?

[Addicks Fan 1981]

4 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Wasn't it the warm Atlantic that played a part in our poor July and parts of August?

Think that was more ramifications of our el niño rather than the warm Atlantic.  

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

August 2023 CET confirmed as 16.4 meaning the overall CET for summer 2023 came in at 16.5, cooler than last year but warmer than a decade ago.    

As warm as 2021 interestingly.

Edit: just noticed the spring CET also 33rd warmest like the summer that is a funny one.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Metwatch

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, Metwatch said:

As warm as 2021 interestingly.

I don't actually think the met office Hadley centre are correct on summer 2021 and it's correct figure is 16.43 rounded off to 16.4.    

[Metwatch]

3 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I don't actually think the met office Hadley centre are correct on summer 2021 and it's correct figure is 16.43 rounded off to 16.4.    

The old legacy dataset version has 2021 as 16.33C, but I think newest is the best to use not older ones.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Metwatch

[TwisterGirl81]

8 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

As warm as 2021 interestingly.

Edit just noticed the spring CET also 33rd warmest like the summer that is a funny one.

Maybe the weather was lots better in the south than the north so it balanced the CET out to that 

[Sunny76]

25 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The warm Atlantic I think ensured the summer wasn't a total flop.   

You say that, but the summer was pretty bad. June was good, but July and August were mostly poor. Mid to late August saw a slight improvement, I’ll give you that. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

You say that, but the summer was pretty bad. June was good, but July and August were mostly poor. Mid to late August saw a slight improvement, I’ll give you that. 

Reckon el niño was responsible for our changeable pattern this summer just gone.   

[LetItSnow!]

16.4 is actually slightly below the 1991-2020 average if only by a slight bit, so *technically* that's two below average months in a row... but not what I would call true below average months. It's the equivalent of a C.E.T. of 15.6 in olden times which sometimes people refer to as cool, but is average. A C.E.T. in the 15s is considered cool now. August 2021 used to be in the 15s before the dataset update. Last one was August 2017 now. The same anomalies this summer against the long term average would be: 16.6, 15.2, 15.6. I do think even without the help of global temperatures increasing that June 2023 would still have been an notably hot June.

Our "string" of below average months (against 1991-2020) may be quickly put to an end this September!

[Roger J Smith]

This is an unofficial look at CET and EWP rankings for August based on 16.4 C and 77.0 mm. 

As always, CET scoring to be confirmed by J10 and the EWP ranks will be confirmed in the next few days as final EWP data get posted. Also as usual I jog the late entries in CET ranks to get a closer approximation to actual scoring. The EWP ranks have late penalties built in. The best combined forecasts are determined by adding ranks together. Weather Observer had the best combined although our consensus and the most recent normal values did better than any forecasters in August. Ride that consensus. This table will be adjusted as needed for EWP ranks. Total ranks combined only shown for top 21.

(5 Sep _ EWP scoring ranks adjusted for table value 77.0 mm)

 

CET and EWP scoring ranks _ August 2023

CET Rank __CET _EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______ EWP rank __ Best combined ranks (CET+EWP)

 

__ 01 ___ 16.4 _ 70.0 __ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 8 ) ____12 ____ 13 ... 3rd best combined 

__ 02 ___ 16.4 _ 85.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ________18 ____ 30 ... t8th best combined 

__(03) __ 16.5 _ 75.6 __ 1981-2010 average ____________ (1) ____ 4 ___ better than all forecasts 1st

__ 03 __ 16.3 _130.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 (17) __ 52 

__ 04 ___ 16.5 _ 95.0 __ DR(S)NO (26) __________________35 ____ 39  ...t-15th best combined 

__ 05 ___ 16.3 _ 80.0 __ The PIT (27) ___________________ 3 _____ 8 ...best combined forecast 

__(06) __ 16.6 _ 82.3 __ 1991-2020 average ____________(9.6) __15.6 __ approx 5th

__(06) __ 16.6 _ 79.9 __ 1993-2022 average _____________ (5) __ (11) ___ approx 2nd 

__ 06 ___ 16.6 _ 82.0 __ Summer18 ( 4 ) _________________8 ___ 14 ... 4th best combined

__ 07 ___ 16.6 _ 85.0 __ Frigid (10) ______________________17 ___ 24 ... t5th best combined 

__ 08 ___ 16.6 _ 87.2 __ Midlands Ice Age (38) __________22 ___ 30  ...t8th best combined 

__ 09 ___ 16.2 _ 67.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (48) ___________21 ___ 30 ... t8th best combined 

__ 10 ___ 16.7 _ 61.0 __ SummerShower (15) ___________32 ___ 42 ...t-18th best combined 

__ 11 ___ 16.7 _ 75.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (18) __________ 1 ___ 12  ... 2nd best combined 

__ 12 ___ 16.7 _102.0__ summer blizzard (20) ___________41 

__ 13 ___ 16.7 _ 66.0 __ dancerwithwings (35) __________ 23 ___ 36 ...t-13th best combined 

__ 14 ___ 16.1 _ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow (37) _________

__ 15 ___ 16.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (52) _________________

__ 17 ___ 16.7 _ 85.0 __ Somerset girl (L1-4) _____________19 ____ 36  ...t-13th best combined 

__(16) __ 16.8 _ 82.7 __ consensus ______________________(10) ___ 26 ... approx 7th best combined

__ 16 ___ 16.8 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (22) ______________

__ 18 ___ 16.0 _ 49.0 __ Methuselah (24) ________________43 

__ 19 ___ 16.8 _ 81.0 __ jonboy (40) _____________________ 6 ____ 25 ... 7th best combined 

__ 20 ___ 16.0 _ 80.0 __ daniel* (43) _____________________4 ____ 24 ... t5th best combined 

__ 21 ___ 16.8 _ 88.0 __ Don (50) ________________________26 ____ 47 ... 21st best combined 

__ 22 ___ 16.9 _ 88.0 __ Weather26 ( 2 ) _________________24 ____ 46 ... 20th best combined  

__ 23 ___ 16.9 _ 81.6 __ bobd29 ( 5 ) _____________________ 7 ____ 30  ...t8th best combined 

__ 24 ___ 16.9 _ 45.0 __ syed2878 (21) ___________________45  

__ 25 ___ 15.9 _ 93.0 __ virtualsphere (29) _______________33 

__ 26 ___ 16.9 _ 92.2 __ Reef (34) ________________________31 

__ 27 ___ 16.9 _ 84.0 __ Mr Maunder (46) ________________13 ____ 40  ... 17th best combined 

__ 28 ___ 16.9 _ 70.0 __ Mulzy (53) _______________________14 ____ 42 ... t-18th best combined

__ 30 ___ 15.9 _112.0__ noname_weather (L1-3) _________48 

__ 29 ___ 17.0 _ 80.2 __ Polar Gael ( 7 )  __________________ 5 ____ 34 ...12th best combined 

__ 31 ___ 17.0 _ 54.0 __ catbrainz (11) ___________________ 38 

__ 32 ___ 17.0 _ 65.0 __ leo97t (13) _______________________27

__ 33 ___ 17.0 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (36) _______________

__ 34 ___ 17.0 _ 55.0 __ rwtwm (44) _____________________ 37

__ 35 ___ 17.0 _100.0__ J 10 (47) _________________________39

__ 36 ___ 15.8 _100.0__ Godber 1 (49) ___________________40

__ 37 ___ 15.8 _105.0__ davehsug (51) __________________ 44 

__ 38 ___ 17.1 _ 79.0 __ SteveB (16) _____________________ t-1 ___ 39 ... t-15th best combined

__ 39 ___ 17.1 _ 91.0 __ February1978 (54) ______________ 29

__ 41 ___ 17.1 _ 72.0 __ Metwatch ( L1-2 ) _______________ 10 

__(41) __ 15.7 _ 82.9 _ average of all data ________________(11) 

__ 40 ___ 17.2 _ 85.0 __ Jeff C ( 1 ) _______________________16 

__ 42 ___ 17.2 _ 84.0 __ seaside60 ( L1-1 ) _______________15

__ 43 ___ 17.2 _ --- ---__ Kentish Man ( L1-5 ) _____________ 

__ 44 ___ 17.3 _ 44.0 __ sunny vale (12) _________________ 46

__ 45 ___ 17.3 _ 65.0 __ Wold Topper (23) _______________28 

__ 46 ___ 17.4 _ 82.7 __ Roger J Smith (28) ______________ 10 

__ 47 ___ 17.5 _ 50.0  __ B87 ( 3 ) ________________________42

__ 48 ___ 17.5 _ 62.0 __ Stationary Front (33) ____________30

__ 49 ___ 17.5 _ 93.0 __ Emmett Garland (45) ___________ 34

__ 50 ___ 17.6 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 6 ) _____________

__ 51 ___ 17.6 _ 67.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (39) ______20

__ 52 ___ 15.0 _117.0__ shillitocettwo (14) ______________49 

__ 53 ___ 15.0 _ 88.0 __ Neil N (19) _____________________ 25

__ 54 ___ 17.8 _ 72.0 __ snowray (41) ____________________ 8

__ 55 ___ 15.0 _120.0_ Moorlander (42) _________________50

__ 56 ___ 14.9 _146.0__ Met. (25) ________________________53

__ 57 ___ 14.7 _112.0__ chilly milly (32) _________________ 47

__ 58 ___ 18.4 _ 55.0 __ Earthshine ( 9 ) _________________ 37

__ 59 ___ 14.0 _123.0__ stewfox (30) ____________________ 51

 ============================================

 

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Dancerwithwings]

Weds I would of had definite bets on it finishing at 16.5c, but yesterday throughout  the Midlands it was rainy and very cool

I actually put the heating on for an hour when I got in from work, so I’m not surprised at all the final outcome was rounded down to 16.4c 

But still, I’m happy with being just 0.3 out, another good month/guess I suppose

[reef]

That 16.5C summer CET means that since 1976 the only warmer summers are:

1983, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022

It was 1.2C warmer than 2012 and 1.2C cooler than the warmest.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker has reached the end of the road at 85.0 mm. This will require some minor editing of posts, look for an EWP update later today or Sunday. Four forecasters chose 85.0 mm and will therefore be the top four in EWP scoring this month. 

 

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, reef said:

That 16.5C summer CET means that since 1976 the only warmer summers are:

1983, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022

It was 1.2C warmer than 2012 and 1.2C cooler than the warmest.

Absolutely staggering given an exceptionally poor July and a rather poor August. Hard to believe it's been warmer than 1984, 1989, 1990 and 1994, and even 2013, 2014 and 2016, but there we are - shows how much the June, and mild nights, distorted things. I suspect if mean max is used as the measure, it would drop far down the league. Put it this way, summer 2023 in the UK was not even remotely close to summer 1989 - the joint best summer of my lifetime that I can remember for weather, with 1995. (Was alive in 1976 but can't remember it).

Thankfully I spent most of July and all of August out of the UK, but for me I think the July and August would have been the poorest (in terms of warm, sunny weather) since at least 1988 and possibly longer. And the summer as a whole I'm sure I would have rated as "rather poor" had I been in the UK for all of it: certainly worse than 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, for instance, and some of those weren't great!

Edited September 2, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The warm Atlantic I think ensured the summer wasn't a total flop.   

I think only June ensured that the summer wasn't a total flop!

[Frigid]

26 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP tracker has reached the end of the road at 85.0 mm. This will require some minor editing of posts, look for an EWP update later today or Sunday. Four forecasters chose 85.0 mm and will therefore be the top four in EWP scoring this month. 

 

Ahh if only the CET was 0.2C higher, would've been absolutely perfect. Still it's probably my best combined forecast I've ever submitted. 

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

16.4 is actually slightly below the 1991-2020 average if only by a slight bit, so *technically* that's two below average months in a row... but not what I would call true below average months. It's the equivalent of a C.E.T. of 15.6 in olden times which sometimes people refer to as cool, but is average. A C.E.T. in the 15s is considered cool now. August 2021 used to be in the 15s before the dataset update. Last one was August 2017 now. The same anomalies this summer against the long term average would be: 16.6, 15.2, 15.6. I do think even without the help of global temperatures increasing that June 2023 would still have been an notably hot June.

Our "string" of below average months (against 1991-2020) may be quickly put to an end this September!

What's the betting that July and August will be the only two below-average months of 2023?

Our modern climate in a nutshell: perpetually mild, but when it does get cool, it always seems to be high summer.

[Roger J Smith]

So I corrected EWP ranks in the combined CET/EWP ranking table and Weather Observer actually hit both 16.4 and 85.0 mm, will reserve full appreciation until 5th when EWP is put to rest in the tables. It's not a double "first" because of order of entry making CET entry 2nd and EWP 3rd. Also Frigid did very well (as already posted above). 

There is a tendency for table values on 5th to be several mm different from this early stage tracker so there could be a different story on these EWP rankings after that. 

A full edit of EWP annual scoring can wait for the 5th since I don't want to edit it twice, let's see what value they propose then. I suspect it may come down a bit, they seem a bit generous with last few days but could go either way. 

 

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Absolutely staggering given an exceptionally poor July and a rather poor August. Hard to believe it's been warmer than 1984, 1989, 1990 and 1994, and even 2013, 2014 and 2016, but there we are - shows how much the June, and mild nights, distorted things. I suspect if mean max is used as the measure, it would drop far down the league. Put it this way, summer 2023 in the UK was not even remotely close to summer 1989 - the joint best summer of my lifetime that I can remember for weather, with 1995. (Was alive in 1976 but can't remember it).

Thankfully I spent most of July and all of August out of the UK, but for me I think the July and August would have been the poorest (in terms of warm, sunny weather) since at least 1988 and possibly longer. And the summer as a whole I'm sure I would have rated as "rather poor" had I been in the UK for all of it: certainly worse than 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, for instance, and some of those weren't great!

Sunshine levels and rainfall levels also key factors in assessing a season. On both scores it fell below par for many. 

[summer blizzard]

23 hours ago, reef said:

That 16.5C summer CET means that since 1976 the only warmer summers are:

1983, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022

It was 1.2C warmer than 2012 and 1.2C cooler than the warmest.

I think that some people struggle with this summer because June was well before the thermal maximum so they felt hot but not July 06/18 hot even though the anomoly is comparable to those months. 

It's probably easier for people to compare this summer to 1983 and 1997 and switch June with July. In that regard we get a 14.1C June, 19C July, 16.4C August. That would have felt more reflective.  

[Roger J Smith]

The mean for 10 July to 9 Aug 2023 was 15.8, compared to the mean for 17 July to 16 Aug 2022, 19.5 C.