August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The CET for the whole of the summer you could say will be the feature that redeems our summer this year @damianslaw, however we have had much worse summers than this year and those worse summers feel like a memory fog to a good many of us.   

Yes there have been worse summers. I'll still regard summer 2023 as below par despite the CET. Apart from the 8-17 June, we have tapped into no warmth other than a brief 24-25 degree 24 hr wonder. 

[Metwatch]

13 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

If August does end on 16.5 then it would be an exactly average month for temperatures according to the 1991-2020 average, and about 0.7C above the 1961-1990 average. 

The equivalent of the same anomalies 30 years ago would have been:

June: 16.4

July: 15.3

August: 15.8

Summer: 15.8

I like to put current day anomalies on the old averages to imagine what the same synoptics may have brought before the warming era. The year to date with those anomalies would be:

4.2 5.3 6.0 7.6 11.8 16.4 15.3 15.8

I guess after today's rainfall it will also be bang on average. This August is about as average it gets for August itself. Central England region the driest in the UK this month, at 55mm and 50mm for Coventry.

[Midlands Ice Age]

40 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I guess after today's rainfall it will also be bang on average. This August is about as average it gets for August itself. Central England region the driest in the UK this month, at 55mm and 50mm for Coventry.

Metwatch..

 I recorded 3.2mms of rain in this afternoons (evening?) sudden downpour, lasting about 20 mins..

That should according to your EWP average put us over 80mms, if falling more generally.

Closer and closer to my target of 87.2mms..

Thanks for the figures  and graphs by the way,  

[Metwatch]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Metwatch..

 I recorded 3.2mms of rain in this afternoons (evening?) sudden downpour, lasting about 20 mins..

That should according to your EWP average put us over 80mms, if falling more generally.

Closer and closer to my target of 87.2mms..

Thanks for the figures  and graphs by the way,  

I got 6mm, the squall line / line of heavy rain sort of expanded as it moved over here.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Yes there have been worse summers. I'll still regard summer 2023 as below par despite the CET. Apart from the 8-17 June, we have tapped into no warmth other than a brief 24-25 degree 24 hr wonder. 

September looks like it might salvage some lost summer!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.7C +0.2C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

Looks like 16.7C will be our final figure which means out summer finishes on 16.7C as well.  Overall that would gives us a summer average of 16.7 +0.7C above average.

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 29th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

CET is 16.58 so will not take much downward pressure to bring it to 16.5 now. 

EWP is around 80 mm now and may add 2-3 with rain spreading into the south overnight. I will wait until 2nd to see final tracker value before adjusting the scoring estimates already posted and of course that will be further adjusted on the 5th of September.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall up to 65.5mm 95.2% of the monthly average.

We should drop down to 16.5C today. If it does  that makes summer come in at 16.6C joint 8th warmest on record. Basically an average summer in regards to the 1991- 2020 records. Going for the 1961 - 1990 it's a huge 1.5C above average.

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 30th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Think now it'll finish either on 16.4 or 16.5 making the CET for the whole of the summer at 16.5, warmer than a decade ago, but this summer is basically classed as average.  El niño and the warm Atlantic have definitely disrupted our summer this year.   

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall up to 65.5mm 95.2% of the monthly average.

We should drop down to 16.5C today. If it does  that makes summer come in at 16.6C joint 8th warmest on record. Basically an average summer in regards to the 1991- 2020 records. Going for the 1961 - 1990 it's a huge 1.5C above average.

8th warmest perhaps but skewed massively by June and aided by SSTs. July and August very average. Wont be remembered at all as a particularly warm summer, and max only 32 degrees. One thing that has helped are the warm SSTs, on paper July should have been much cooler and August probably even a bit below average. 

I'd rank it on a par with 2015, 2020 in many respects. Lower league of summers since 2012. 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

16.5c to the 30th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

I find that incredible given how poor the Summer has been. 

[The PIT]

Actually stayed on 16.6C today a 3C warmer than the local forecast plus the sun stayed out longer.

I think July is effecting most peoples views and they were plenty off pleasant days in August. If June had happened in August views could well be very different

 

[reef]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

8th warmest perhaps but skewed massively by June and aided by SSTs. July and August very average. Wont be remembered at all as a particularly warm summer, and max only 32 degrees. One thing that has helped are the warm SSTs, on paper July should have been much cooler and August probably even a bit below average. 

I'd rank it on a par with 2015, 2020 in many respects. Lower league of summers since 2012. 

I'm not really sure its SSTs as for the summer as a whole, the average mean minimum anomaly is actually less than the maximum.

This actually shows in my figures too:

Mean Max: 20.8C (+0.6C)
Mean Min: 11.9C (+0.2C)

The summer mean maximum here is actually the 7th warmest in 43 years (beaten only by 1989, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2019 and 2022). There were no extreme temperatures but it was consistently warm.

[summer blizzard]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

8th warmest perhaps but skewed massively by June and aided by SSTs. July and August very average. Wont be remembered at all as a particularly warm summer, and max only 32 degrees. One thing that has helped are the warm SSTs, on paper July should have been much cooler and August probably even a bit below average. 

I'd rank it on a par with 2015, 2020 in many respects. Lower league of summers since 2012. 

I don't think it's comparable to 2015 due to June. It does rank somewhere between the average to poor group for 2013>, better than 2017 but worse than 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, reef said:

I'm not really sure its SSTs as for the summer as a whole, the average mean minimum anomaly is actually less than the maximum.

This actually shows in my figures too:

Mean Max: 20.8C (+0.6C)
Mean Min: 11.9C (+0.2C)

The summer mean maximum here is actually the 7th warmest in 43 years (beaten only by 1989, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2019 and 2022). There were no extreme temperatures but it was consistently warm.

All perspective, yes not much cool weather, but most days here in July and August failed to make 21 degrees. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by damianslaw

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I find that incredible given how poor the Summer has been. 

Another month probably but only just below 81-10 average. 2 colder than average months then going by more recent means. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 16.6C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 67.5mm 98.1% of the monthly average.

Summer as a whole average temp 16.6C +0.6C  above average making it the 8th warmest on record.

Summer rainfall 273.5mm 130.5% of the average for summer making it the 12th wettest on record.

If it wasn't the mess of July most people would have thought it was a good summer.

[Wilxy]

Finished on 15.9C from a Stevenson Screen east of Bristol.

[Roger J Smith]

Latest on EWP is 81.2 mm to 30th plus about 2-3 mm grid average indicated for 31st, total likely to be fairly close to 84 mm. Will wait for the tracker's actual result to amend scoring already posted. 

CET will be a toss-up between 16.4 and 16.5, I think yesterday's daily mean was around 14 C. It favours 16.4 and hopefully we will know soon. 

Now, before somebody asks, has any year ever seen a summer where June and September finished 1-2 in either order?

No, it has never happened in 354 tries.

September was warmest month of only one year, 1890 (14.6), but July was that summer's second warmest (14.5).

So otherwise it came down to checking all summers when June was warmest (about thirty) and none of them had September in second place.

September has finished second alone in eleven years, more often to July (six cases) than August (five). This is the complete list of such summers: The bold type indicates which of July or August was warmer (it cannot be June alone). ... 

YEARS when JULY or AUGUST and SEPTEMBER finished 1-2 in mean CET (includes 1890)

YEAR ___ JUNE _ JULY _ AUG _ SEP _ notes

1729 ____ 15.1 _ 16.8 _ 15.7 _ 16.6 __ (2nd warmest Sep)

1750 ____ 14.2 _ 17.2 _ 15.0 _ 15.2

1784 ____ 13.7 _ 15.2 _ 14.0 _ 14.8 __ May also 13.5

1795 ____ 13.2 _ 15.2 _ 16.6 _ 16.0

1802 ____ 13.7 _ 13.5 _ 17.2 _ 13.8 

1821 ____ 12.3 _ 14.8 _ 16.4 _ 14.9

1865 ____ 15.6 _ 16.6 _ 15.1 _ 16.3

1875 ____ 14.2 _ 14.8 _ 16.1 _ 14.9

1890 ____ 13.5 _ 14.5 _ 14.1 _ 14.6

1895 ____ 14.8 _ 15.2 _ 15.8 _ 15.4

1956 ____ 13.1 _ 15.8 _ 13.5 _ 14.3

2006 ____ 15.8 _ 19.8 _ 16.2 _ 16.9

2014 ____ 15.1 _ 17.8 _ 15.1 _ 15.1 __ only case where Sep is tied second with two other months

(besides 2014, there are seven other years where September is tied second but with just one month, not two).

That brings to 19 the total number of years where September is at least tied for second warmest, plus the one year that it was warmest outright. 

In addition, September managed to beat just one of the three summer months in 68 years, to finish third or in a few cases, tied for second.

These are the years when September beat one of three summer months, it is fairly frequent for June and rare for the other two months to be looking up at September: 

warmer than only June _ 1678* 1689 1698 1701 1702 1708^ 1713^ 1720 1730^ 1735 1740 1745 1749a 1754 1759 1760 1767 1770 1777 1779 1780 1796 1805 1812 1814 1824 1825 1841 1843 1854 1862 1869 1880 1884 1898 1903 1907 1909 1916 1926 1929 1946 1948 1949 1951 1955 1958 1961^ 1964 1971 1977 1978 1980^ 1981 1985b 1987 1989 1991 1997 1998 1999 2002 2011 2013 2016 2019 2021*

 ... ... ^Sep also tied July ... ... *Sep also tied August 

warmer than only July _ (closest case with June, Aug warmer was in 1858, 14.8 July, 14.7 Sep) _ 

warmer than only August _ just one case, 1891 (Aug 14.1, Sep 14.2), also close in 1941 (Aug 14.7 Sep 14.5)

 

note a: 1749 May (12.3) also warmer than June (11.9) but not warmer than Sep (13.8), so June was 5th warmest.

note b: 1985 Sep (14.6) almost beat August (14.7) as well as June (12.6).

 

In addition September tied June without beating July or August, in all these 16 years: 1659, 1668, 1670, 1671, 1677, 1681, 1715, 1718, 1721, 1800, 1819, 1886, 1901, 1923, 1939, 1969.

Since the Maunder and its more approximate values, September has occasionally been beaten in the same calendar year by either May or October although some Mays and Octobers are warmer than some Septembers in other years Even some Aprils are warmer than the coldest Septembers.

In 1672 September was beaten by both May and October (May 12.0, Sep 11.0, Oct 11.5). This feat was repeated in 1807 (May 11.8, Sep 10.5, Oct 11.4).

In 1674 and 1684 and 1703, it was cooler than just May (see next paragraph for further examples), and in 1675 and 1771 it tied May, while in 1685 it tied October and in 1687 it tied both (at 11.0).

In 1758 May (13.8) was warmer than September (12.0) and also in 1788 (13.8 to 13.4). 1808 and 1809 added to this list (13.7 and 13.1 beating 12.7 in both years). In 1822 May 12.7 was ahead of Sep 12.2, and again in 1829 (12.5, 11.3) and 1830 where May edged out Sep 12.0 to 11.9. No surprise that 1833 got into this list (15.1 vs 12.1) and May was second warmest month to July at 15.8. In 1840 (11.4 vs 11.1) we see the least warm May to beat September since the Maunder. Further cases were noted in 1847 (12.3 vs 11.5), 1848 (13.9 vs 12.5), 1860 (11.5 vs 11.2), 1893 (13.1 vs 12.9), 1912 (12.1 vs 11.1), 1918 (13.0 vs 11.9), 1919 (13.5 vs 12.7), 1922 (12.7 vs 12.2), 1952 (13.4 vs 10.7), and 1992 (13.6 vs 13.3).

That brings to 24 the total number of years with a warmer May than September. There are only two cases of a warmer October  than September in the same year (1672 and 1807), plus a few ties. 

In 2001 Sep (13.4) managed to stay ahead of record warm October (13.2) and in 2008 Sep (13.5) held off May (13.4), similar close calls in 2017 and 2018, so it has been 31 years now since a May was warmer than a September in the same year, and it will be 216 years since an October was warmer if it doesn't occur this year. 

By my count there are 103 years where September does better than just finishing fourth warmest, although about 30 where it does not do even that well, falling behind May or occasionally October. That means that about 2/3 of all years have a September alone in fourth place as expected from monthly averages.

The closest that September came to being beaten by April was 1952 (9.6 vs 10.7). Second would be 1840 (9.7 vs 11.1). 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

August 2023 CET confirmed as 16.4 meaning the overall CET for summer 2023 came in at 16.5, cooler than last year but warmer than a decade ago.    

[TwisterGirl81]

3 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

August 2023 CET confirmed as 16.4 meaning the overall CET for summer 2023 came in at 16.5, cooler than last year but warmer than a decade ago.    

Can I ask what the CET was for last summer?  Must have been so much higher than this summer surely?

Edited September 1, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

Can I ask what the CET was for last summer?  Must have been so much higher surely?

17.3 rounded off as it was 17.27.   

[TwisterGirl81]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

17.3 rounded off as it was 17.27.   

Can imagine what this summers CET would have been if we'd not had as lovely of a June as we had this year.  Last summer was much warmer...