Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Jamie M]

Exported file was a gigabyte so I thought I'd just post the YouTube video here instead

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

Aye us Kent lot all sound the same 

Strike was only a few streets away so I can see why it was so bloody loud 

 

91000 Amps! Nobody is surviving that one. As for power, billions of watts there on offer! 

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

91000 Amps! Nobody is surviving that one. As for power, billions of watts there on offer! 

Someone had a hole in their roof and a blown-up fuse box from it about half a mile away so I was a bit lucky 

[Jamie M]

The only half decent shot from last night showing the structure

[Sprites]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

91000 Amps! Nobody is surviving that one. As for power, billions of watts there on offer! 

Do you have to register to use the info on that site? 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Sprites

[Jamie M]

2 hours ago, Sprites said:

Do you have to register to use the info on that site? 

https://meteologix.com/uk/lightning

Wasn't logged in to see the lightning analysis so no

[Atmogenic]

hey guys, I got the storm last night (the kent clipper) and i think I got a bit carried away with how much I recorded 

But here is my recording of the storm from midnight  (for those inpatient it gets more active around 6:30)

 

[Harry's House]

10 hours ago, Shaunado said:

Woke up to thunder and torrential rain, not sure what time for my notes recording thunder days due to ill health: was it before or after midnight here in mid Kent... or both?

At Egerton, I would have thought that the bulk of the thundery activity if not its entirety occurred between midnight and 1am BST though other observers nearby may know better. 

[Shaunado]

22 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

At Egerton, I would have thought that the bulk of the thundery activity if not its entirety occurred between midnight and 1am BST though other observers nearby may know better. 

Thanks man, my parents nearby guesstimated midnight too.

[Jamie M]

Video of the storms 

[alexisj9]

On 19/08/2023 at 12:10, Jamie M said:

Exported file was a gigabyte so I thought I'd just post the YouTube video here instead

Nice, apart from for the ears of course. Wasn't to bad the electric stayed on lol. Had a black out for about a minute after one of those a few years back. Loud was an understatement too.

On 19/08/2023 at 13:24, Jamie M said:

Someone had a hole in their roof and a blown-up fuse box from it about half a mile away so I was a bit lucky 

Ouch.

[CoventryWeather]

In Lancashire for the next couple of days, bit dark to the SW.

[Eagle Eye]

15 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Nice, apart from for the ears of course. Wasn't to bad the electric stayed on lol. Had a black out for about a minute after one of those a few years back. Loud was an understatement too.

I had one with the storm earlier this week for a minute or two from a close positive CG. 0.5 seconds after I saw the strike, I heard the loud crack rather than rumble sound that went on for a few seconds and knocked out power. However, had a louder one that didn't turn out the power last year. Shook the house and forced me to cover my ears which I don't normally do anymore. 

[Jamie M]

15 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Nice, apart from for the ears of course. Wasn't to bad the electric stayed on lol. Had a black out for about a minute after one of those a few years back. Loud was an understatement too.

Ouch.

Was very surprised that the electrics didn't trip, grandparents on the other side of town had their electrics go even though they were further away

Edited August 21, 2023 by Jamie M

[Rufus Butterfield]

Interesting feature being suggested on Thursday. Not much cape present so I don’t know if it’s suggesting elevated convection or a convergence zone. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

46 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

Interesting feature being suggested on Thursday. Not much cape present so I don’t know if it’s suggesting elevated convection or a convergence zone. 

Seems to be on the boundary between the warm airmass to the south and the cold airmass coming down from the north. Where that boundary lies there could be some pretty torrential thunderstorms. A lot of the models have these over the Channel/N France, but UKV has consistently shown these developing over the UK. Some very strong deep layer shear being modelled by UKV, with some large CAPE to the S/SE, so some organised storms are possible but need greater confidence before we can firm up on the details.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Ben Sainsbury]

The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[carinthian]

27 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper.

Locally 34c in these parts and currently 26c in the village at 1340m absl. Its hot with no wind to speak of. . The local forecast now indicates a delay in the passage of the cold front and its associated storm risk over the coming weekend so prolongs the so called heat dome phenomena.  Not sure what effect that will have for the UK but as you have mentioned a possible surprise development in the making.

C

[Windblade]

Haven't been around for a while as absolutely nothing to report. Been a dismal summer storm wise here with the only consistent theme being sunny and warm (but not convective) .  Even when things looked promising on storm forecasts nothings materialised or missed us completely. Only a few weeks to go until the end of storm season.  I feel this summer has been a huge missed opportunity for us.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Windblade

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The 06z runs this morning bring S/SE England agonisingly close to some pretty spectacular thunderstorms (a positive trend vs the last 24/48 hours), given the CAPE and DLS overlap. We're definitely within the realms of this possibility, should the boundary of the warm airmass advect 50-100 miles or so further northwards. Just a few more positive adjustments needed and I wouldn't rule it out given the underestimation of the strength of the heat dome over Central Europe. However, as it stands this is screaming the dreaded, Kent Clipper.

Literally every word of this does not surprise me lol and has been said before, almost fortnightly. And yet, look where we are: stormless

[Jamie M]

Am sure we'll be happy to know that AROME brings nothing to the UK 

[Jamie M]

Missing out on that shear is just painful 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Missing out on that shear is just painful 

I have one word for it. 

Typical. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK!

If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess!

Edited August 22, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Jamie M]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

How nice of the ARPEGE to follow the N France coastline... Really is painful living in the UK!

If it's any consolation the NetWx MR has an MCS tearing across SE England in a 35m/s sheared environment. Don't give up till it's over I guess!

Want my heavily sheared rain and I want it now