Storm Antoni - Saturday 5th

[Summer Sun]

The met office have named Storm Antoni for tomorrow, the first named storm of the year

 

A yellow warning is in place for most of the south west from 8am to 8pm

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=2f3d2239-3bfa-4aee-a1cf-a9e050e00b4d

 

[Nick L]

Wait, I thought the threshold for naming a storm was an amber warning? They're just making it up as they go along.

Edit: No idea why it's only a yellow warning. SW England could easily see gusts in excess of 70mph, which at this time of year could be seriously damaging.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Nick L

[A Face like Thunder]

Correct me I'm wrong, but was it not the French authorities who labelled it Storm Antoni whilst the yellow weather warning would have come from our authorities? 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Correct me I'm wrong, but was it not the French authorities who labelled it Storm Antoni whilst the yellow weather warning would have come from our authorities? 

France don't use the same names we do. Antoni is from the UK/Ireland/Netherlands list. So one of those 3 agencies named it, and I'm pretty sure it was the Met Office.

The whole thing is just a confusing, frustrating mess and I wish it would be binned. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Nick L

[Nick L]

"A storm will be named when it has the potential to cause an amber or red warning"

So based on that, either they're going against their own criteria or they'll upgrade it to amber as the event is happening by which point it's too late to take notice of it anyway 

[Nick L]

11 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Correct me I'm wrong, but was it not the French authorities who labelled it Storm Antoni whilst the yellow weather warning would have come from our authorities? 

Definitely the Met Office...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/storm-antoni-to-bring-wind-and-rain#:~:text=Storm Antoni has been named,the issuing of weather warnings.

[Liam Burge]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

"A storm will be named when it has the potential to cause an amber or red warning"

So based on that, either they're going against their own criteria or they'll upgrade it to amber as the event is happening by which point it's too late to take notice of it anyway 

Yes, I believe that they will issue an Amber warning sometime later, as they have just increased the Impact Matrix to one below the Amber warning threshold, so once models get a better idea of where this will hit I believe that they'll do an amber warning.

 

Looking at the latest UKV, looks like Exeter could see some quite damaging gusts.

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Wait, I thought the threshold for naming a storm was an amber warning? They're just making it up as they go along.

Edit: No idea why it's only a yellow warning. SW England could easily see gusts in excess of 70mph, which at this time of year could be seriously damaging.

Think they'll upgrade that, if they didn't already do so this morning update.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

Yes, I believe that they will issue an Amber warning sometime later, as they have just increased the Impact Matrix to one below the Amber warning threshold, so once models get a better idea of where this will hit I believe that they'll do an amber warning.

 

Looking at the latest UKV, looks like Exeter could see some quite damaging gusts.

It'll be tomorrow morning when it's too late. Just like they did with Eunice.

There is good enough model agreement for gusts of 60+ in SW England and Wales. That alone warrants an amber IMO, especially with all the holidaymakers and trees in full leaf. One day I'll give up trying to understand their thought processes.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Nick L

[wimblettben]

59 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It'll be tomorrow morning when it's too late. Just like they did with Eunice.

There is good enough model agreement for gusts of 60+ in SW England and Wales. That alone warrants an amber IMO, especially with all the holidaymakers and trees in full leaf. One day I'll give up trying to understand their thought processes.

Hang on, is that for inland areas?

Quite worrying if thats the case, I can say right now with trees in leaf, winds of that level are going to bring a lot of trees down.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Hang on, is that for inland areas?

Quite worrying if thats the case, I can say right now with trees in leaf, winds of that level are going to bring a lot of trees down.

EC, UKV and UKMO all have gusts of 60+mph well inland for Devon in particular. There is strong model consensus for damaging winds here, and I don't understand why it's only a yellow.

[snefnug]

According to METO storm forecast on YouTube, the warning is primarily because of the impact, Aiden kept emphasising school holidays, camping, out door events etc, as opposed to damaging gusts ripping up trees, so have they changed the criteria for this storm, at this time of year? 

Edited August 4, 2023 by snefnug

[Nick L]

Just now, snefnug said:

According to METO storm forecast on YouTube, the warning is primarily because of the impact, Aiden kept emphasising school holidays, camping, out door events etc, as opposed to damaging gusts ripping up trees, so have they changed the criteria for this storm, at this time of year?

I would argue this is even more reason to have an amber warning.

[Metwatch]

Did think we would go through a whole season without seeing a Met Office named storm, (from the UK / Ireland / Netherlands list) we were getting close before the next season. Would have been nice to get a new stat quirk after the 13th June enigma was broken earlier in the summer.

Doesn't look to be that impactful up here in the Midlands, just expecting another wet day.

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Did think we would go through a whole season without seeing a Met Office named storm, (from the UK / Ireland / Netherlands list) we were getting close before the next season. Would have been nice to get a new stat quirk after the 13th June enigma was broken earlier in the summer.

Doesn't look to be that impactful up here in the Midlands, just expecting another wet day.

I'll be visiting home in Cannock tomorrow, will be weird it being so calm as the centre of the low moves across while Wales and SW England get battered! Will be a thoroughly miserable today and pretty exceptionally cold too.

[mountain shadow]

Parts of Northern Ireland may receive about 80% of their average August rainfall in about 12 hours, so another dreadful Summer's day beckons.

[Mcconnor8]

Latest UKV looks pretty brutal for the South West early afternoon tomorrow, with winds transferring East albeit at less severity throughout the evening. Brighton Pride will also be impacted too I would assume.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[The PIT]

LOL I guess the post grad they've got for naming storms has finally been given a new laptop. So no named storms earlier this season despite them being more widespread and stronger.

The criteria which seems to be based on which way the wind is blowing forgive the pun. I hate the impact idea just because you live in area of low population doesn't mean a tree on your car does any less damage. Rain could bring some flooding to the west due to already saturated ground.

[weatherobsuk]

The younger bro is packing up his family tent near to Ilfracombe and heading into a cheap hotel for 2 nights due to Storm Antoni. Having experienced Lake District gales & flooding near to Pooley Bridge a few years back and seen the NetWx-SR predicted Wind gusts for tomorrow, I don't blame him one bit for seeking shelter away from the worst of what Storm Antoni might have to offer.

[Metwatch]

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, toggerobz said:

The younger bro is packing up his family tent near to Ilfracombe and heading into a cheap hotel for 2 nights due to Storm Antoni. Having experienced Lake District gales & flooding near to Pooley Bridge a few years back and seen the NetWx-SR predicted Wind gusts for tomorrow, I don't blame him one bit for seeking shelter away from the worst of what Storm Antoni might have to offer.

Yes very sensible and sare I say it, probably the desired outcome, from naming this storm. I hope other camping in it path do similar.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Nick L said:

I'll be visiting home in Cannock tomorrow, will be weird it being so calm as the centre of the low moves across while Wales and SW England get battered! Will be a thoroughly miserable today and pretty exceptionally cold too.

not like Wed though, virtually got away with a dry day, under centre of the low, sunny at times too while S and N of me were wet, lucky day that

[Scuba steve]

1 hour ago, toggerobz said:

The younger bro is packing up his family tent near to Ilfracombe and heading into a cheap hotel for 2 nights due to Storm Antoni. Having experienced Lake District gales & flooding near to Pooley Bridge a few years back and seen the NetWx-SR predicted Wind gusts for tomorrow, I don't blame him one bit for seeking shelter away from the worst of what Storm Antoni might have to offer.

Got a mate in Devon in his camper , messaged him earlier to rig for storms and ditch the awning 

[ANYWEATHER]

A few things to note about tomorrow before I toddle off to bed,  some exceptionally low temperatures , fierce winds , and flooding rainfall.... I think where I live in Worcestershire, the center of the low crosses this area ,and exceptional rainfall will be a problem. ...

[Nick L]

There we go, amber warning the night before. No reason that couldn't have been issued this morning.