Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Beanz]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Oh look, our first "winters over" comment at the start of September

LOL

It’s a classic gag isn’t it…? 

“Taxi!” 

[cheese]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Oh look, our first "winters over" comment at the start of September

LOL

Given the way winters have gone in recent years it’s not an unreasonable assumption that winter is over before it even began

[Dorsetbred]

20 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Question no one has answered is why? Why would that be the case?

What is September?  Its just a man made creation that covers a specific period of time of Earth's orbit around the Sun.

So why would a specific 30 days period in the Earth's orbit have an affect on the weather of a specific 90 day period in the Earth's orbit of which there are 61 days between the two periods?

I like your thinking, as highlighted it is but 8.3% of the Gregorian calendar, which has minimal atmospheric alignment, so I'm not sure how people can align this to an event some 3 months away.

In reading these threads (and many others) people always focus on the effect, i.e. a warm September means....

But, rather than that, go back and ask yourself what has caused the "effect" and determine the cause, and then try to correlate, the old versus the current and how that might align.

I've seen so many posts that say "Warm September means..." and then so many posts that say "Warm September doesn't mean". Looking at the bigger picture can help a lot more than the data that says, September was...., and the winter was... , purely because as we have seen you can correlate it either way. Possibly look more towards the modern datasets rather than the old, because GW is certainly breaking data links to data from many years in the past.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Love some of the crazy charts that the CFS is pumping out for February, not bone chillingly cold but very very wintry in their own right with such low thicknesses

[Frostillicus]

There'll be a female pope before the UK sees a cold winter again

[SqueakheartLW]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Love some of the crazy charts that the CFS is pumping out for February, not bone chillingly cold but very very wintry in their own right with such low thicknesses

Think we already know that nothing on the CFS ever verifies

LOL

[pinball wizard]

Some interesting analysis and charts here, albeit not particularly inspiring for us here in the UK with the possible exception of Southern UK during December 

Winter 2023/2024 Snowfall Predictions: The Jet Stream shift from the El Nino anomaly is Forecast to have an impact on snowfall patterns next season » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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Winter 2023/2024 snowfall predictions for United States, Canada and Europe, from the global long-range weather forecasting systems

 

[Rain All Night]

On 02/09/2023 at 00:21, damianslaw said:

Lots of reference to long range models... Would be interested to see the surface pressure anomaly for summer 2023 and how it compares to what the seasonals were suggesting. From recollection most suggested low heights way out to the SW and strong heights over and to our east. Whilst right with June, for July and August a big bust, the trough deeper and more over the UK..

 

Z500 rather than MSLP, but here you go:

............

What's fascinating and frustrating is that you can see how close the models got at times to predicting the correct blocking pattern... but just small differences between the predictions and reality meant a completely different kind of outcome for us.

Edited September 3, 2023 by RainAllNight

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Z500 rather than MSLP, but here you go:

............

What's fascinating and frustrating is that you can see how close the models got at times to predicting the correct blocking pattern... but just small differences between the predictions and reality meant a completely different kind of outcome for us.

What would be of interest is how this anomaly chart compares with summer 2009

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

What would be of interest is how this anomaly chart compares with summer 2009

It looks like 2009 didn't have the heights we've seen this summer in the Labrador Sea:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=5&mon2=7&iy=2009&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos[1]=&ipos[2]=&ineg[1]=&ineg[2]=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelcolor=Color&labelshaded=Shaded+w%2Foverlying+contours&type=2&scale=100&contourlabel=0&switch=0&cint=10&lowr=-160&highr=160&proj=Custom&xlat1=30&xlat2=80&xlon1=-60&xlon2=40&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

Possibly related is the big difference in SST anomalies between the two years (or at least I think that's what these are, not sure why it says 'skin'...):

Edited September 3, 2023 by RainAllNight

[SqueakheartLW]

You know when the real countdown to winter begins when you see the winter updates from Gav starting up

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hey CFS paint us the worst possible picture for December

CFS: 'Right on it boss'

Yeah, errr, please don't actually do that...

Hopefully we see these charts flip 180 over the next few weeks...

Edited September 4, 2023 by CreweCold

[jules216]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hey CFS paint us the worst possible picture for December

CFS: 'Right on it boss'

Yeah, errr, please don't actually do that...

Hopefully we see these charts flip 180 over the next few weeks...

Uncanny as I was doing my analogs other day it looks almost identical.

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Uncanny as I was doing my analogs other day it looks almost identical.

Grim

[John S2]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

Uncanny as I was doing my analogs other day it looks almost identical.

Jules216 - what made you reject 2009 from your analogues? Just curious, not saying you're right or wrong to do so.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Hey CFS paint us the worst possible picture for December

CFS: 'Right on it boss'

Yeah, errr, please don't actually do that...

Hopefully we see these charts flip 180 over the next few weeks...

BIN IT

LOL

Its the CFS after all

5 hours ago, jules216 said:

Uncanny as I was doing my analogs other day it looks almost identical.

Not looking as good as it did but we still have time for things to change yet

[Dorsetbred]

The pendulum she swings this way and that....

[jules216]

3 hours ago, John S2 said:

Jules216 - what made you reject 2009 from your analogues? Just curious, not saying you're right or wrong to do so.

I had many more years in the list but narrowed it down a bit as I liked these more. I just dont trust such a -NAO outlier although one can argue fór it to be a good analog. We will see. I dont think big blocking will occur until February.

 

[northwestsnow]

Doom mongers are early this year

[Chesil View]

Drawing any conclusions either whether mild or cold  about the cominging winter in the first week of September is a mugs game.

Far too much water to go under the bridge yet.

[joggs]

Models and us lot have no clue tbh.

Weather has made mugs of us in the past.

Edited September 4, 2023 by joggs

[blizzard81]

One of the very few things (and it is very few) I have learnt over the years with the models is that the CFS is garbage at long range. Doesn't matter if it's showing the coldest winter in a 100 years or the mildest or anything inbetween, it just can't be taken seriously imo. 

[Don]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Doom mongers are early this year

This September's certainly tying my stomach in knots regarding the coming winter, that's for sure! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

This September's certainly tying my stomach in knots regarding the coming winter, that's for sure! 

TBH Don I'm  not worried about Sept ,I'm more concerned with the strength of El Nino for Dec to Feb.

 

 

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

TBH Don I'm  not worried about Sept ,I'm more concerned with the strength of El Nino for Dec to Feb.

 

 

The El Nino concerns me too, however, it seems like we are falling at the first hurdle this year!