Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, MattH said:

The October GloSea update is certainly very interesting, in terms of anomalies not being what should usually be expected. A full review of all the models will be required to determine where the Oct update of the EC sits, in terms of it shifting away from the consistent blocked pattern it had shown in recent months.

The December GloSea, in particular, is fascinating as clearly, Scandinavian high anomalies are rare and this pattern would also bring the risk of impacts on the strat as well, while January sees a pattern that is far more -ve NAO than what would otherwise be expected.

One key feature I keep looking for in all the seasonal models this year is for the European high to be, essentially, nonexistent. As we all know if we get an inflated and dominant European high that stretches from Iberia into central and eastern Europe through the winter months it often means that upstream the pattern is troughed over the N Atlantic and you've got little or no chance of colder synoptics. Winds are often from the W or SW. As the GloSea update shows, there is clearly not much evidence for a winter that is dominated by a large European high and, to me, that is potentially more of a key feature than actual blocking to the N or NW of the British Isles. Get a trough into Europe and the jet stream will naturally follow, etc.

In terms of winter synoptics and shutting off the Atlantic, then the October GloSea update for Dec, Jan and Feb is fascinating...

Regards, Matt.

 

These C3S charts are great - but I cannot seem to get the Copernicus site to produce them for me nor can I see a link to them direct. Can someone put me out of my misery?!

[CoxR]

19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

These C3S charts are great - but I cannot seem to get the Copernicus site to produce them for me nor can I see a link to them direct. Can someone put me out of my misery?!

Charts | Copernicus

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

 

[Don]

57 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

You'd take that though, right?

Only over mild and wet.  Certainly wouldn’t get excited!

[Jacob]

Looking at the cfs 850hpa charts, not a single very cold weather event is predicted. Its disappointing but its still too long range to make precise predictions

[Dorsetbred]

One high street store has nailed its colours to the mast for Christmas Day weather outlook.

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

One high street store has nailed its colours to the mast for Christmas Day weather outlook.

That seals it then White Christmas assured.  

[Don]

2 hours ago, Jacob said:

Looking at the cfs 850hpa charts, not a single very cold weather event is predicted. Its disappointing but its still too long range to make precise predictions

You do know that CFS stands for 'Can't Forecast Snow' don't you?! 

[SqueakheartLW]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

You do know that CFS stands for 'Can't Forecast Snow' don't you?! 

C omplete

F abricated

S ***

 

C omputer

F antasy

S cenarios

 

C learly

F antasized

S now

[SqueakheartLW]

Some interest here for later in the month with below average zonal winds showing throughout all levels. Maybe El Nino and EQBO finally kicking in.

[Premiere Neige]

8 hours ago, Jacob said:

Looking at the cfs 850hpa charts, not a single very cold weather event is predicted. Its disappointing but its still too long range to make precise predictions

CFS is always disappointing when looking for cold long range!

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Some interest here for later in the month with below average zonal winds showing throughout all levels. Maybe El Nino and EQBO finally kicking in.

‘Finally kicking in’ ?  Before the end of October !

fwiw, ec46 still doesn’t see below av zonal flow out to six weeks. It is beginning to throw up some more slow members though. 

[Dancerwithwings]

18 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

CFS is always disappointing when looking for cold long range!

CFS is “disappointing” , it’s not worthwhile looking at

Really….it’s just for fun that’s how most on here see it

[Don]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

CFS is “disappointing” , it’s not worthwhile looking at

Really….it’s just for fun that’s how most on here see it

CFS can't be ignored though and it does sometimes sniff out the correct pattern.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, Don said:

CFS can't be ignored though and it does sometimes sniff out the correct pattern.

Yeah but not when talks or posts are submitted, that are not a week or two away Don , but several months that are been spoken about…..

I don’t mind, but surely it’s all fun then….that is how I see the CFS

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yeah but not when talks or posts are submitted, that are not a week or two away Don , but several months that are been spoken about…..

I don’t mind, but surely it’s all fun then….that is how I see the CFS

The CFS correctly picked out the cold patterns for winter 2009/10, December 2010 and March 2013 to name a few.

[raz.org.rain]

9 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

One high street store has nailed its colours to the mast for Christmas Day weather outlook.

I've never figured out if it's a false memory or not but I'm sure my grandad had a Christmas BBQ outside when it was barely above freezing!

[Dancerwithwings]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

The CFS correctly picked out the cold patterns for winter 2009/10, December 2010 and March 2013 to name a few.

If the CFS wants to pick out rare cold cases like them….

Lol …let it be right all the time …yes yes yes  

[Don]

9 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Lol …let it be right all the time …yes yes yes  

And when did I imply it was right all the time?! 

[SqueakheartLW]

Just for a bit of fun I've tried to think up of winter theme names for what the weather models could stand for. I've taken these from meteociel and added any others I know of too.

For anyone else who wishes to try this the rules are that you can only use 1 word per letter and the words have to be in the same order as the letters of the model and cannot be rearranged. Also the result has to be a phrase or sentence that makes sense.

ARPEGE, PEARP, GFS, ICON, ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, DWD, GEM, CMC, NAVGEM,

NASA, CFS, NOAA, CEP and CANSIPS are used here.

 

ARPEGE   Always    Rainy   Precipitation   Expected   Going   Everywhere

PEARP     Predicted   Everywhere   All   Rainy  Precipitation

GFS          Generally   Fabricated   Snow

ICON       Icy   Cold   . . . . . . . . . .   Or   Not

ECMWF   Expected   Continuous   Mild   Weather   Forecasts

UKMO     United   Kingdom   Mild   Outcomes

JMA          Just   Marginal  Action   (On wrong side of marginal of course)

DWD        Dreary   Wintertime   Drizzle

GEM         General   Expected   Mildness

CMC         Classic    Marginal  Cold  (We wish)  

NAVGEM  Not   Anticipated   Very   Good   Expected   Mild

NASA.      Never   Anticipate   Snow   Again

CFS.          Can't   Forecast   Snow

NOAA      Never   Overestimate  Anticipated   Action   (Will be cold rain)

CEP           Close   Expected   Parameters  (Not quite cold enough for snow) 

CANSIPS  Can   Anticipate   No  Snow    In   Precipitation   Scenarios

Edited October 13, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Chesil View]

Well done Squeakheart. Brilliant and pretty accurate too.

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, Don said:

The CFS correctly picked out the cold patterns for winter 2009/10, December 2010 and March 2013 to name a few.

And what about all the years it's picked out cold patterns that never happened? 

[Chesil View]

13 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And what about all the years it's picked out cold patterns that never happened? 

All the models have done that from time to time. Even the sainted ECM, has blown it and that was  at just 48 hours with 50 of its 51 ensembles members saying cold easterly.

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And what about all the years it's picked out cold patterns that never happened? 

Quite simply, all I said was it shouldn’t be ignored.  I did not say it should be taken as gospel, like some seem to be implying!

[RJBingham]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

Quite simply, all I said was it shouldn’t be ignored.  I did not say it should be taken as gospel, like some seem to be implying!

Come on Don, it's only gospel, when it's showing cold, you know that 

[Jacob]

Here are all the cold snaps that CFS is predicting. Jan and Feb appear to have a very strong PV