Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The WWB & likely subsequent AAM response detailed in this thread is currently on-going however the MJO aspect of the above post has failed to materialise with emergence yet again pushed back. 

This suggests to me a broad continuation of the pattern we’re currently seeing with further spells of wet & likely windy weather being thrown our way by a stubborn Atlantic trough. 

Increasing signs of strat/trop coupling as we go through the next couple of weeks too. The idea of a stormier/mild start to winter appears to be gaining traction 

Strat and trop coupling! Can you tell where it will couple? If over Siberia then knock yourself out coupling Mr & Mrs Strattrop!

[Met4Cast]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Strat and trop coupling! Can you tell where it will couple? If over Siberia then knock yourself out coupling Mr & Mrs Strattrop!

Broadly over the Arctic I’m afraid. 

Whether or not this ends up being a persistent coupling or not remains to be seen however. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Broadly over the Arctic I’m afraid. 

Whether or not this ends up being a persistent coupling or not remains to be seen however. 

Thank you..  for responding.  

[summer blizzard]

Personally i don't concern myself with coupling, its standard fare and abnormal when it does not. So long as the stratosphere does not remain hostile to our interests, it's not a concern outside December and actually a good thing if a SSW actually occurs as it can downwell more effectively than occasions where it tilts due to poor coupling. 

Also, something that has not been spoken of much but there is now some evidence that one of the two solar hemispheres may have peaked in June (month on month drops since). It's not referred to much but quite a few solar cycles actually have a double peak because the solar hemispheres can be as much as two years apart (would suggest full solar maximum by Spring 2025). 

[northwestsnow]

27 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The WWB & likely subsequent AAM response detailed in this thread is currently on-going however the MJO aspect of the above post has failed to materialise with emergence yet again pushed back. 

This suggests to me a broad continuation of the pattern we’re currently seeing with further spells of wet & likely windy weather being thrown our way by a stubborn Atlantic trough. 

Increasing signs of strat/trop coupling as we go through the next couple of weeks too. The idea of a stormier/mild start to winter appears to be gaining traction now. 

EC and now GFS ops actually showing a massive flip to something less + NAO this morning ..

Interesting..

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC and now GFS ops actually showing a massive flip to something less + NAO this morning ..

Interesting..

I do wonder whether NWP modelling is over-reacting to the recent uptick in AAM tendency & the current on-going WWB in the Pacific, struggling to see where any sustained pattern change is going to come from at the moment. 

It seems to me any spells of higher pressure are more likely to be transient/watered down closer to the timeframe, I believe we saw something similar following the previous uptick too. 

I’m a mere novice at this stuff though, I’m sure @Tamara could give a more definitive answer!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I do wonder whether NWP modelling is over-reacting to the recent uptick in AAM tendency & the current on-going WWB in the Pacific, struggling to see where any sustained pattern change is going to come from at the moment. 

It seems to me any spells of higher pressure are more likely to be transient/watered down closer to the timeframe, I believe we saw something similar following the previous uptick too. 

I’m a mere novice at this stuff though, I’m sure @Tamara could give a more definitive answer!

Oh I'm sceptical myself

It would be nice for a sustained dry period,the last two days have been great locally, dry and cool.

At least something to keep an eye on ...

[SqueakheartLW]

Here's the coldest charts from each of today's 12z runs from GFS, GEM and ECM to get us warmed up nicely or should I really say cooled down ready for winter 2023/24 with some late November cold shots.

GFS 12z P15

GEM 12z P05

ECM 12z P19

Take your pick, a nice Scandi high and an easterly, A Greeny/Iceland high with a northerly or a close to UK high with a cold NE wind.

[Catacol]

JMA update is pretty good. 

Dec signal for trough over the UK has strengthened compared to October, but note the maintenance of Siberian/Aleutian combo that is likely to weaken the vortex

January then sees heights to the north strengthening a with a strong signal for a southerly storm track emerging from a deep trough over the eastern US

and then February blocked winter jackpot

 

No significant deviation here from the general pattern of a backloaded winter, the first perhaps for a while. Any SSW may enhance the contrast between early and late winter.

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Catacol

[MattH]

Just finished the winter outlook and analysis for work and absolutely no reason to deviate from many long-standing predictions and signals that have been in place for a good few months. Granted, as is seemingly more frequently the case due to global warming and the extremes taking place, there is always an unknown and uncertainty in play. However, I've not been at this point in November, for a good few years with a clear picture and prediction in my mind of how the winter is likely/expected/predicted to pan out. The summary is below, again no surprises here and could be a very interesting one indeed for those who like and love winter for what it can bring...

Cheers, Matt.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, MattH said:

Just finished the winter outlook and analysis for work and absolutely no reason to deviate from many long-standing predictions and signals that have been in place for a good few months. Granted, as is seemingly more frequently the case due to global warming and the extremes taking place, there is always an unknown and uncertainty in play. However, I've not been at this point in November, for a good few years with a clear picture and prediction in my mind of how the winter is likely/expected/predicted to pan out. The summary is below, again no surprises here and could be a very interesting one indeed for those who like and love winter for what it can bring...

Cheers, Matt.

Hi Matt - I reckon you've nailed that summary. My only challenge would be over February which I'm going to plump for as being below average overall. About time too. Winter has abandoned February all too readily....

[*Stormforce~beka*]

How can people know what February and March are bringing this early?!

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How can people know what February and March are bringing this early?!

They cant, its just a forecast love. Could be correct tho?? 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

They cant, its just a forecast love. Could be correct tho?? 

That's like me guessing by looking into a crystal ball though. What's the point this early?

[swfc]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

That's like me guessing by looking into a crystal ball though. What's the point this early?

Just for fun.

[Weatherman_93]

36 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How can people know what February and March are bringing this early?!

You should know by now this thread will continue to guess what’s going to happen in 3-4 months time! Basically it might be cold it might not be 

[Premiere Neige]

54 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How can people know what February and March are bringing this early?!

Nobody "knows" but you can make an educated guess based on the current drivers in play and by looking back at previous winters with similar conditions to get an idea of the likely outcome. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

19 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Nobody "knows" but you can make an educated guess based on the current drivers in play and by looking back at previous winters with similar conditions to get an idea of the likely outcome. 

This is the type of answer I was looking for. I was not causing a fight I literally didn't understand how one could. But knew there must be a way otherwise why does this thread exist.

[TSNWK]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How can people know what February and March are bringing this early?!

They don’t.. there is simply too much choas in our atmosphere that anything beyond 3 weeks is well articulated (on occasion) therory… usually with a heap of ifs / buts and maybe….. I guess as with most things it’s all a learning journey and maybe one day in the distant future we might crack long term forecasting but for now it’s educated trail and error to help us towards understanding long term forecasting.

Edited November 13, 2023 by TSNWK

[Chasbrown]

19 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

They don’t.. there is simply too much choas in our atmosphere that anything beyond 3 weeks is well articulated (on occasion) therory… usually with a heap of ifs / buts and maybe….. I guess as with most things it’s all a learning journey and maybe one day in the distant future we might crack long term forecasting but for now it’s educated trail and error to help us towards understanding long term forecasting.

What are the chances of snow on 3rd December to get me out of driving to my aunt's in Hampshire for lunch? She's not the best chef unfortunately. 

[Dorsetbred]

20 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

What are the chances of snow on 3rd December to get me out of driving to my aunt's in Hampshire for lunch? She's not the best chef unfortunately. 

Buy a takeaway, it'll be less stressful, than hoping for snow on a day 18days ahead of the present.

[SqueakheartLW]

24 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

What are the chances of snow on 3rd December to get me out of driving to my aunt's in Hampshire for lunch? She's not the best chef unfortunately. 

CFS which stands for Can't Forecast Snow is showing on it's 4 most recent 1 monthly runs that there's quite a good chance of cold on this day with a snow chance quite possible

00z

00z shows a nice easterly flow but the uppers aren't anything special so a bit of a question mark here but maybe things could firm up a bit more or the cold could upgrade before then.

06z

06z here shows another easterly so we are at 50% chance of an easterly on this day already but snow chances here probably almost zero as it looks like a dry easterly. Maybe some frost and ice for you here to cancel the day.

12z

12z is the zonal option here of the 4 we have so if you need an excuse to get out of it then you could day it's raining too much or you could claim that you have been flooded and can't come.

18z

18z is probably the option you would want to bank on to cancel this trip. It looks the snowiest of the 4 options available.

Edited November 13, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Chasbrown]

24 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CFS which stands for Can't Forecast Snow is showing on it's 4 most recent 1 monthly runs that there's quite a good chance of cold on this day with a snow chance quite possible

00z

00z shows a nice easterly flow but the uppers aren't anything special so a bit of a question mark here but maybe things could firm up a bit more or the cold could upgrade before then.

06z

06z here shows another easterly so we are at 50% chance of an easterly on this day already but snow chances here probably almost zero as it looks like a dry easterly. Maybe some frost and ice for you here to cancel the day.

12z

12z is the zonal option here of the 4 we have so if you need an excuse to get out of it then you could day it's raining too much or you could claim that you have been flooded and can't come.

18z

18z is probably the option you would want to bank on to cancel this trip. It looks the snowiest of the 4 options available.

Thanks for all the replies. 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, MattH said:

Just finished the winter outlook and analysis for work and absolutely no reason to deviate from many long-standing predictions and signals that have been in place for a good few months. Granted, as is seemingly more frequently the case due to global warming and the extremes taking place, there is always an unknown and uncertainty in play. However, I've not been at this point in November, for a good few years with a clear picture and prediction in my mind of how the winter is likely/expected/predicted to pan out. The summary is below, again no surprises here and could be a very interesting one indeed for those who like and love winter for what it can bring...

Cheers, Matt.

Good to read your thoughts. Those wanting some early snow and cold may not enjoy reading it. 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Good to read your thoughts. Those wanting some early snow and cold may not enjoy reading it. 

I would be more than happy if that forecast came off as January and early February are better (on average) for decent cold outbreaks/snowfalls IMO than December.