Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[pinball wizard]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Look on sat and you’ll see where the biggest showers / storms are is generally where airmasses are meeting and the direction change is forcing the warm air coming from the south upwards. We’ve got no convergence in the south, so it generally fizzles out, meaning the air remains primed for the point at which it converges further north.

Isn't that what I said?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Isn't that what I said?

Yeah - I was meaning to reply to the original question

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Look on sat and you’ll see where the biggest showers / storms are is generally where airmasses are meeting and the direction change is forcing the warm air coming from the south upwards. We’ve got no convergence in the south, so it generally fizzles out, meaning the air remains primed for the point at which it converges further north.

Yeah but even when the cooler air moves south over the next couple of days and the air masses meet right over my house, nothing will happen - for some reason. Instead of forcing the air upwards, The cooler air will just politely move the warmer air away in a violent period of moderate drizzle. 
 

 

[Snowonder]

Going dark just north of Bedford, up the A6 

[pinball wizard]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah - I was meaning to reply to the original question

No worries

[DIS1970]

Met Office have no warnings south of Wolves, started to light up 50/60 miles SSE of here.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Currently just E of Harrogate, off the A1(M), with a spectacular view. Warm and humid with good clearance to my south. Seems all the ingredients are coming together.

[It's a Philcast]

When the met office remove storm warnings and then the storms come along!!

[chapmanslade]

4 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:

Just told me he studied weather

I study my naval from time to time

[Allseasons-Si]

That Cumbrian storm is doing a right mover,...NE england could kop for it.

i know we have Netweather radar but i just want to post this cos it has quicker animation...

Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[minus10]

14 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Yeah but even when the cooler air moves south over the next couple of days and the air masses meet right over my house, nothing will happen - for some reason. Instead of forcing the air upwards, The cooler air will just politely move the warmer air away in a violent period of moderate drizzle. 
 

 

Love that...should be used in weather forecasts for our areas..

"a cold front will politely move in respectively replacing the warm air and as long as everyone is happy a period of moderate...(maybe intense if you are lucky)..drizzle will ensue"

Edited September 10, 2023 by minus10

[P-M]

Lots of clag developed here now and temps have dropped although still humid. 

Storm to me west but think it'll hit Northumberland on current track rather than Tyne and Wear. 

[Frosty hollows]

Cell came out of nowhere in West Oxfordshire 

[DevinW]

Very humid in Thirsk and the temperature slowly creeping up even with full cloud coverage

[Frosty hollows]

2 loud rumbles of thunder in South Oxfordshire.  Don't know where it came from- we've had nothing but clag this morning 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

2 loud rumbles of thunder in South Oxfordshire.  Don't know where it came from- we've had nothing but clag this morning 

Hope for me then! Glad you're getting something. 

[DIS1970]

Looks like they're fizzling out minutes after forming, still not too hopeful here.

Edited September 10, 2023 by DIS1970

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

21 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Yeah but even when the cooler air moves south over the next couple of days and the air masses meet right over my house, nothing will happen - for some reason. Instead of forcing the air upwards, The cooler air will just politely move the warmer air away in a violent period of moderate drizzle. 
 

 

Ah well yeah, that will be for another reason

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Love that...should be used in weather forecasts for our areas..

"a cold front will politely move in reapectively replacing the warm air and as long as everyone is happy a period of moderate...(maybe intense if you are lucky)..drizzle will ensue"

Starting to think the central south should just be left off forecasts in future until science figures out why thunderstorms simply cannot form in this area of the planet. must be our unique geography or something. 

[Supacell]

Currently just off the M1 near to Sheffield with the plan to head north in the direction of Wetherby/York. 

[minus10]

You can see the ring of convection forming i think as it moves north on sat 24 and will probably intensify..

 

[CoventryWeather]

Seriously hoping that something else develops behind the main area of rain. Seems on satellite there's plenty of sunshine around Weymouth north.

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Starting to think the central south should just be left off forecasts in future until science figures out why thunderstorms simply cannot form in this area of the planet. must be our unique geography or something. 

The chilterns are usually good for a storm. I can hear thunder from that Chilterns cell here

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

You can see the ring of convection forming i think as it moves north on sat 24 and will probably intensify..

 

Yes. Our rain has come out of nothing, so must be fairly rapid

[Metwatch]

From Leighton buzzard looking to Aylebury now.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Not being funny but I was pretty spot-on with the Wokingham Supercell prediction.

Okay 25 -50 miles off, and it’s yet to fully develop - but other than that please pass me the “forecaster of the year’ award