Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[TallPaul]

28 minutes ago, SouthwestChaser said:

New here. Showers crossing the channel and new ones forming over it. Still hope yet for those elevated post-midnight storms perhaps? No lighting in these as of yet but convective activity is accelerating.

Welcome aboard fellow storm-starved SWChaser. Keeping everything crossed for the next 48 hours... although I'm away this weekend, 45 miles north on the border of Cornwall/Devon in Bude. If I miss anything noteworthy then I'll be returning home on Sunday with the biggest sulk anyone has ever witnessed...

[TallPaul]

Hmmm, anyone having a late-night chill in the Balearics right now might just be pondering... 'do I look north, or south?'... 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Hmmm, anyone having a late-night chill in the Balearics right now might just be pondering... 'do I look north, or south?'... 

Think something might be building with you areas name on it, just don't know if it'll have anything but rain. 

[TallPaul]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Think something might be building with you areas name on it, just don't know if it'll have anything but rain. 

Yeah keeping everything crossed (but not holding my breath!). Here's hoping... and also hoping you see some action this weekend

[Harry]

The variation in between the latest UKV and AROME in itself is quite stark. What I’m going to take from it is the models are struggling to get a handle on it and it’s all up for grabs. AROME still showing a huge swathe of decent instability sweeping up from the south through tomorrow evening and overnight. Let’s see how it plays out 

[Alderc 2.0]

Assume last night was a complete bust then? Looking at radar a messy day to come

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Pretty certain that with tomorrow’s western (early morning) and eastern (late evening) opportunities on offer that between them the central south should see something decent. I’m tempted to head down to Butser Hill but more than likely will stay local for this one.

Radars at the ready!

Edited September 16, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Assume last night was a complete bust then? Looking at radar a messy day to come

Yep, nearest lightning strike to the UK mainland was a good 60 miles offshore. 

Tomorrow's 'thundery rain' band has now been delayed even further, with models seemingly having picked up a slowing of the low pressure system coming north. While this keeps more of us in the unstable air for longer into the evening (see scattered storms on UKV), I find myself unable to trust these models as far as I could throw them right now!

[Alderc 2.0]

28 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Yep, nearest lightning strike to the UK mainland was a good 60 miles offshore. 

Tomorrow's 'thundery rain' band has now been delayed even further, with models seemingly having picked up a slowing of the low pressure system coming north. While this keeps more of us in the unstable air for longer into the evening (see scattered storms on UKV), I find myself unable to trust these models as far as I could throw them right now!

Yes the models handling of convective activity in the past few months has been poor, but especially so with elevated convection from the south. It’s been overplayed every single change. Can’t think of a single situation where anywhere has received a surprise storm, or something slightly more potent than expected. 

[tomp456]

What exactly was everyone expecting last night? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by tomp456

[CoventryWeather]

The inconsistency

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

The inconsistency

Yes...good for some night spherics moving north  though if this was how it played out...would love to see a bit of night time lightning...

[Mapantz]

A yellow pacman has been issued.

[Marcus_surfer]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

A yellow pacman has been issued.

Haha thats hilarious !!!!

[Southern Storm]

I'm surprised to see a few on here have given up already, but I understand why.

We have the  next 24 to 36 hours to salvage a tiny amount of satisfaction from this pitiful 2023 storm season

If nothing meaningful happens by Monday morning, I will officially throw in the towel for 2023 

Slightly more activity showing for tomorrow evening from around 8pm on the UKv 6z but we know it will have changed on the next run, one can hope though 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

I'm surprised to see a few on here have given up already, but I understand why.

We have the  next 24 to 36 hours to salvage a tiny amount of satisfaction from this pitiful 2023 storm season

If nothing meaningful happens by Monday morning, I will officially throw in the towel for 2023 

Slightly more activity showing for tomorrow evening from around 8pm on the UKv 6z but we know it will have changed on the next run, one can hope though 

Reading the forecast over on UKWW you are in an enhanced convective zone, and it’s usually pretty accurate.

Let yourself get excited about this - the form is good, we do have a decent chance

[Jamie M]

Tony Gilbert's risk for tomorrow from UKWW

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Tony Gilbert's risk for tomorrow from UKWW

have you got the text from it as well please or link?

[Jamie M]

3 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

have you got the text from it as well please or link?

Sorry, you do not have permission for that!

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

"Slight Risk of Elevated Thunderstorms England & Wales 05z-00z

An early heads up to get the ball rolling on this one;

Models and forecast soundings are suggesting that most, if not all convection will remain elevated throughout Sunday. Though it is noted that the enhanced convective zone along the South Coast 14z-00z, will develop within a strong Deep Layer Shear. This means that some storms, whilst elevated could still become severe for a time. Forecast Soundings show a saturated vertical profile which could indicate some local flooding could occur. Wind gusts to 38 kts possible."

[wimblettben]

13 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Tony Gilbert's risk for tomorrow from UKWW

Just a slight risk?

Not great chances for most places going by that forecast apart from the southeast.

[viking_smb]

its a lot colder here in cardiff and raining 

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, tomp456 said:

What exactly was everyone expecting last night? 

 

 

A barbeque, and we had one, lovely evening. 

Even had a firework display locally to remember a young Suzuki rider who lost his life last Sunday on the A5.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Just a slight risk?

Not great chances for most places going by that forecast apart from the southeast.

There should be two rounds of activity - the first is more westerly early on and will bring a lot more of the midlands into play

[ChannelThunder]

I find old Tony G's outlooks a bit hit and miss. For example, he didn't even have Peterborough & The Wash in his risk area last weekend...and look what happened there.

Not a dig or anything, as his efforts are appreciated of course and spot on sometimes! Let's hope he's right with his orange box for tomorrow

[Azazel]

7 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I find old Tony G's outlooks a bit hit and miss. For example, he didn't even have Peterborough & The Wash in his risk area last weekend...and look what happened there.

Not a dig or anything, as his efforts are appreciated of course and spot on sometimes! Let's hope he's right with his orange box for tomorrow

It looks more west-based to my admittedly untrained eye - I also didn’t see the stuff over Peterborough happening like it did - though I did pick out Newcastle