Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks

[bluearmy]

Todays ec46 swings away from notable spv weakness and high heights through first half December.  I guess until we get a handle on Aleutian low and ural or scrussian ridges then these swings will continue 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Todays ec46 swings away from notable spv weakness and high heights through first half December.  I guess until we get a handle on Aleutian low and ural or scrussian ridges then these swings will continue 

It does seem to be moving inline with thoughts about an early mild winter period, so perhaps this is the most likely outcome among the swings?

Edited November 8, 2023 by Don

[Duane S.]

On 07/11/2023 at 20:30, bluearmy said:

Institute of Meteorology - Working Group Atmospheric Dynamics - Stratosphere Diagnostics

USERS.MET.FU-BERLIN.DE

We have Berlin data back !

I have a query about the 10hpa charts though - the mean zonal wind at 10hpa seems way too low (on both the heights chart and also the zonal flow cross section ) 

gfs has it pretty much double the Berlin figure as does the ec46 zonal flow chart 

am I missing something?

The Berlin site certainly seems to be missing somethings.

i think they have revamped it, it looks different. Like the U wind charts that includes the Southern Hemisphere now, I’m sure it didn’t before?  But most areas are not available at all and a few others that are have aspects missing.

Hopefully a Work In Progress that will be complete soon, in time for winter  

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The Berlin site certainly seems to be missing somethings.

i think they have revamped it, it looks different. Like the U wind charts that includes the Southern Hemisphere now, I’m sure it didn’t before?  But most areas are not available at all and a few others that are have aspects missing.

Hopefully a Work In Progress that will be complete soon, in time for winter  

Indeed but the U wind at 60N is surely a miscalculation 

Zonal cross section now full globe as you say 

Edited November 8, 2023 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Todays ec46 swings away from notable spv weakness and high heights through first half December.  I guess until we get a handle on Aleutian low and ural or scrussian ridges then these swings will continue 

 Colour me shocked ...

Oh well hope springs eternal

[Duane S.]

11 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed but the U wind at 60N is surely a miscalculation 

Zonal cross section now full globe as you say 

It does looks very wrong. The JMA has this at 10mb.

 

Data input error… 

11 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed but the U wind at 60N is surely a miscalculation 

Zonal cross section now full globe as you say 

It does looks very wrong. The JMA has this at 10mb.

 

Data input error… 

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

It does looks very wrong. The JMA has this at 10mb.

 

Data input error… 

It does looks very wrong. The JMA has this at 10mb.

 

Data input error… 

Berlin chart looks ok up to around 45N so it’s v odd indeed 

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

Upper strat slowdown becoming ever less notable - the drop below the expected mean is beyond mid dec now and really not particularly likely to be much below average according to last few ec46 runs 

[Rain All Night]

I thought the end had been looking a little better again on the last few runs (top left), but there's no denying that as has been the case for a while, if you crop the more dubious period beyond one month out of the charts, you're left with a probable very strong vortex for most of the next month:

Edited November 12, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Cheshire Freeze]

A strong early vortex is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, we shouldn’t lose sight of that.

I’d sooner this, with a coupling of strat and trop now (with a decent SSW chance in January), than a slightly below average strat that does nothing for us at trop level other than half heartedly throw an Atlantic trough at us with a bulging Euro HP.

[bluearmy]

17 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

A strong early vortex is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, we shouldn’t lose sight of that.

I’d sooner this, with a coupling of strat and trop now (with a decent SSW chance in January), than a slightly below average strat that does nothing for us at trop level other than half heartedly throw an Atlantic trough at us with a bulging Euro HP.

Thats  handy Aaron 

today is a date record 

[bluearmy]

2 gfs ops responding to the highly amplified trop patterns and driving a very displaced weak spv end week 2 

even if the modelled Atlantic amplification turns out to be a bit of a dud, perhaps we can still get this solution high up due to Alaskan ridge downstream of w Aleutian trough coupled with central n Asian ridge (broadly ural) 

[Jacob]

I have no idea what this means because im practically a rookie at this kind of meterology 

First improvement in the chance of an SSW in a long time

[Scott Ingham]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

2 gfs ops responding to the highly amplified trop patterns and driving a very displaced weak spv end week 2 

even if the modelled Atlantic amplification turns out to be a bit of a dud, perhaps we can still get this solution high up due to Alaskan ridge downstream of w Aleutian trough coupled with central n Asian ridge (broadly ural) 

Would fit a tropical wave hitting 8/1 locations (the signal of which has been waxing and waning in regards to its amplitude) The higher the better obviously. But a North Atlantic/pacific combo followed by Alaskan/Ural combination is classic SSW precursors. I personally don’t think this round of tropical convection has the strength this time and that we’d be looking at December into January for the next wave before we hit any ssw jackpot however. That’s my novice take on things be interesting to hear Ed’s thoughts not seen him posting yet this year?

[bluearmy]

20 hours ago, bluearmy said:

2 gfs ops responding to the highly amplified trop patterns and driving a very displaced weak spv end week 2 

even if the modelled Atlantic amplification turns out to be a bit of a dud, perhaps we can still get this solution high up due to Alaskan ridge downstream of w Aleutian trough coupled with central n Asian ridge (broadly ural) 

Well the consistency of two gfs runs have now evaporated as far as any ideas of an early strong warming into beg dec are concerned. 

[Don]

59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well the consistency of two gfs runs have now evaporated as far as any ideas of an early strong warming into beg dec are concerned. 

Typical!  

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Typical!  

It should be noted that I don’t currently see much evidence of likely coupling from the strong spv down to the tpv out to end nov on the zonal flow x sections .  (Although there are sniffs that the long held prediction by the ec 46 of the spv being slightly displaced on the Asian side broadly around svaalbard is beginning to drift towards n Greenland in tandem with a strengthening E Canadian tpv as we enter December ) 

Edited November 15, 2023 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Thanks for the heads up Blue.

Even if it isn't nice reading for coldies..

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks for the heads up Blue.

Even if it isn't nice reading for coldies..

Not expecting December to be up to much and that's supported by the seasonal models really.  Anything more would be a bonus and December more likely to be a continuation of November, with any real interest reserved until the New Year at least?

Edited November 15, 2023 by Don

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Not expecting December to be up to much and that's supported by the seasonal models really.  Anything more would be a bonus and December is more likely to be a continuation of November, with any real interest reserved until the New Year at least?

I'm not typing what I think , it's dangerous in here

[Don]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not typing what I think , it's dangerous in here

True lol .  Reading between the lines, you're not expecting a great winter for some?!  

[northwestsnow]

49 minutes ago, Don said:

True lol .  Reading between the lines, you're not expecting a great winter for some?!  

I've no idea what to expect for winter although Nov is a horror show and I really don't like the idea of Dec following November.

[Mike Poole]

Today’s ECM 46 showing a stronger signal for pressure on the vortex both on the zonal winds plot, and the 10hPa temperature.

[CoventryWeather]

Placed this into the model thread too, as it relates there as well, but the zonal winds chart from ECM suggesting a weaker than average early December.

[DavidS]

Latest ECMWF anomaly charts at 10hPa, show a strong warm anomaly for Weeks 2 & 3. Week 1 (first image) is for week commencing 27th Nov.