Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks

[Don]

13 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looks like a bonus is coming

 

BFTP

Possibly a taster of what's to come later on?!

[Dennis]

Hello dec23

what a start into vortex stuff

[Andy8472]

Big Scatter but running below average  

[andy989]

Am I right in thinking that the Canadian warming in November 1962 was NOT responsible for the legendary winter jan/feb/march 1963. But rather a full SSW in January 1963 was responsible? 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, andy989 said:

Am I right in thinking that the Canadian warming in November 1962 was NOT responsible for the legendary winter jan/feb/march 1963. But rather a full SSW in January 1963 was responsible? 

We’ve been discussing that in the MOD.  The SSW can’t have been responsible for the start of it since it happened around 28th January.  It may well have been responsible for prolonging it right through into March.

It is likely that the Canadian warming had a fair bit to do with the way the first part of the winter played out, ensuring a weak strat vortex, in my view.

It will be interesting to see what happens with this, there hasn’t been a Canadian warming since 1993, and before that 1981 as far as I know.

[andy989]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We’ve been discussing that in the MOD.  The SSW can’t have been responsible for the start of it since it happened around 28th January.  It may well have been responsible for prolonging it right through into March.

It is likely that the Canadian warming had a fair bit to do with the way the first part of the winter played out, ensuring a weak strat vortex, in my view.

It will be interesting to see what happens with this, there hasn’t been a Canadian warming since 1993, and before that 1981 as far as I know.

Thankyou. I was thinking November to January is a very long lag time for any effects. 
 

I was born in 89 so i didn’t really experience 93, but I’ve read about it and 81. I’ll be following the warming closely, I suspect models won’t take it into account until it’s happened?

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Thankyou. I was thinking November to January is a very long lag time for any effects. 
 

I was born in 89 so i didn’t really experience 93, but I’ve read about it and 81. I’ll be following the warming closely, I suspect models won’t take it into account until it’s happened?

Well, they’ll take it into account, but as with most goings-on in the strat, the models will probably deal with it better once it is in the starting data.

[sebastiaan1973]

Will this impact our weather?

[joggs]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Will this impact our weather?

You watch,the lows will start sliding underneath the block then switch as soon as this hits

[Don]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

You watch,the lows will start sliding underneath the block then switch as soon as this hits

Our own star is clearly not a coldie lol!! 

[Dennis]

hi goodmorning on the 1th of dec23

I will post here daily from now some stuff of the Vortex and the winterideas to it

Ill start with this one: on this you can see that 4-6 dec the upper vortex from 1Hpa goes into reversal mode 

That means that the normal westerlies of the Vortex goes to easterlies 

[Dennis]

This mornings EC forecast 

[joggs]

5 hours ago, Dennis said:

This mornings EC forecast 

Is that good?

[Dennis]

12 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is that good?

hi an weak zonal works most times good for wintercold 

[Dennis]

Big knocking at the Vortex and reversal signs in the strato

Edited December 1, 2023 by Dennis

[fromey]

26 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Big knocking at the Vortex and reversal signs in the strato

Hopefully there will be a QTR! 

[Dennis]

EC forecast on zonal winds 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Dennis said:

EC forecast on zonal winds 

Dennis - do you know why Berlin zonal flow is a completely different scale to the rest of the modelling?  Eg 10hpa 60N is 10m/s on that chart whereas we are currently running approx 35 m/s 

[Dennis]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Dennis - do you know why Berlin zonal flow is a completely different scale to the rest of the modelling?  Eg 10hpa 60N is 10m/s on that chart whereas we are currently running approx 35 m/s 

hi good question, i dont know for now sorry

on the zonal chart EC is also around 35

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Dennis said:

hi good question, i dont know for now sorry

on the zonal chart EC is also around 35

it seems it’s purely down to the Berlin website 

the individual NH charts also have the same issue with zonal flow (unsurprising really as they must be used to generate the zonal cross section chart you posted) 

[Dennis]

Easterlies ahead into the stratosphere 

 

[Cloud 10]

Split vortex from the outer limits of the GFS 06z.

 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Split vortex from the outer limits of the GFS 06z.

 

Yep I just commented on this in the md thread 

defintiely a something to be looking at as we see an Aleutian ridge in the upper strat putting pressure on a vortex that looks like it wants to stretch Siberia to Canada. Chuck in a trop ridge that upwells and …….dada ! 

[Windysun1]

An SSW directly over the noth pole is now plausible. Would certainly throw the cat amonst the pigeons!

 

[Dennis]

still the Canadian warming