Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs becoming really cold at 204h..some of that stuff from the North East about to turn up!a great run throughout I really hope it's right!..looking similar to this morning's ECM

Edited November 19, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[TSNWK]

Was there not something similar on this morning ecm day 10

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given that it verifies better than gfs I’m not sure why you think that 

both solutions are firmly on the table - gfs with the amplification for next weekend and gem for a later one with an interesting polar profile 

Yes it's not a one off burst of amplification it's a continuous phase of attempts. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well if it's cold you're after then the Gfs 12z is for you.....

[Battleground Snow]

That's the 120 ukmo that didn't load earlier,

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well if it's cold you're after then the Gfs 12z is for you.....

absolutely agree..it gets particularly cold after 204h temps not much above freezing at that stage

[Ali1977]

GFS Control and mean at T120, solid support for the op up until this point. 

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO 168h

Still lots of cold sent deep South on that trough into Europe. Not something we've seen a lot in the past few years.

By the way, along the axis N-America-Siberia, it's not massively different from GEM at 168h, which does end up with a High between Scandinavia and Iceland.

[phil nw.]

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

[Tim Bland]

42 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Was there not something similar on this morning ecm day 10

Shame that low isn’t a bit further north as it dumps a load of snow into central France 

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

Yes exactly my thoughts! Colder and some frosty nights. As you say nothing unusual for late November.

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

It's all very tentative at the moment, there is a strong signal for cold, but still could go horribly wrong as it's done over the years. If the gfs is correct any part of the country could see snow ,but for now it's a case of seeing how things unfold this week, impossible at this stage to put any finer details on it...

[CoventryWeather]

Interesting towards day 10 that both the GFS and GEM are pretty similar. Charts below. 

Perhaps a sign of agreement in the mid range, it's just how we get to that stage (two completely different scenarios). Or perhaps it's just coincidence, still a lot of work in the short term to deal with. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

Indeed, much more seasonal if the GFS verifies, and thats a big if. I guess it shows how mild and wet the autumn has been that some folk are getting excited over some frost and Scottish mountain snow. UKMO seems a feasible solution but with output like the ICON and GEM about its not a done deal.

[TSNWK]

London short ensemble.. nice tight clustering around -6

[Mucka]

FI trend still helpful for early Dec

Latest GFS mean continues to amplify the Atlantic sector for around the 28th so that signal has gained strength over the last couple of days, at least within GFS ensemble suite.

If we do get a GFS like blocking scenario over the mid term then further blocking could well be supported into early Dec. 

[minus10]

29 minutes ago, Mucka said:

FI trend still helpful for early Dec

Latest GFS mean continues to amplify the Atlantic sector for around the 28th so that signal has gained strength over the last couple of days, at least within GFS ensemble suite.

If we do get a GFS like blocking scenario over the mid term then further blocking could well be supported into early Dec. 

Yes the Gfes z500 mean anoms show the blocking in the Atlantic upto Greenland and north east for the 30th...

 

[Purga]

Ths Pert from the 12z GEFS would be fun for the south & a few others I'd hazard.

[mathematician]

51 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Something more seasonal coming up later this week but as yet nothing out of the ordinary.

Fine details still to be agreed  but the trend seems to place the Atlantic high a little too close to maintain a northerly for long.

It does look like a glancing blow at the end of the week,more for the north and east.

It will get colder for sure but apart from a few wintry showers up north it's likely to be mainly dry with some frosts.

Spot on. It's going to be colder and a tad under the average in terms of temperatures. But it's not Narnia what's being forecasted at the moment unfortunately 

[Metwatch]

50 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shame that low isn’t a bit further north as it dumps a load of snow into central France 

500 miles more north and that would be the endgame for us @Battleground Snow. We can only dream for now

[steveinsussex]

Is it a coincidence that The day after Tomorrow is on channel 4? I think not

[sheikhy]

Ecm 96 hours and another jump to the gfs it seems?!!!!

[CoventryWeather]

Don't get too excited

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Don't get too excited

Why? You think the low will go over the top at 120?

[Lincs Observation]

Well the countryfile weather is punting for cold weather towards the end of the week, however the thoughts are they have no idea at this time how far south or how cold it will be, they hinted at a small chance of a low tracking across Scotland with potential for widespread snow across Scotland only.

 

to be honest I’d only expect Scotland to have snow this early in the winter. For the rest of us frost at best for the time been.