Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[sundog]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Almost the classic retrograde pattern setting up on GFS, pinch of salt for now

Looks like a Murr sausage attempt lol.

[TSNWK]

UKM144 - YES PLEASE! 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gem all on board operation 

Nice chart and like GFS but unlike UKMO pushes the troublesome shortwave low through to phase with the Euro trough.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

Just now, TSNWK said:

UKM144 - YES PLEASE! 

168 could be epic 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The setups we are seeing are perfectly aligned with expectant outcome of the MJO and the modelling overall has performed at a good level considering how many scenarios are at play here. You get a great mix within many of the MJO phases however some have more variety than the rest and a few subtle changes on amplitude etc

Little mention on the CMCC which was the only one to suggest THIS EXACT SETUP into December @Uncertainty @Mike Poole , DWD has been decent too which had Greenland heights

As the end of December week 1 - Around the 6th currently seems a good guesstimate we watch as a perfectly normal transition will occur factoring in various contributing teleconnections 

Phase 5

With the move between phase 6 and 7 we get the northeast America snowstorm opportunity transition to a high with part retrogression of the Atlantic block

Also linkage between Greenland into our troughing to the east and a strengthening Siberia High which comes to the fore via phase 8

This corresponding in line with 0-14 days following strong Stratospheric Vortex events 

You might not see a plausible path for a colder evolution from that but the phase 8 and 1 for December holds great value and indeed NAEFS trending into such setups

This pattern being the main influence of this winter is the NAEFS slightly early perhaps however there is a genuine chance even at this stage 

  

You’re posting a lot of charts here and not explaining the thinking - at least I’m struggling to follow it. If you are suggesting MJO phase 6 in early December I think that is a stretch. I’d say mid December for that and this assumes a smooth and hopefully strong progression. Next phase 7/8/1 impacts then follow as late December.

In terms of December as a whole the monthly mslp ECCC chart you have here for December is interesting though runs a bit counter to IO phases of the next wave. Never say never - perhaps the wave break that is approaching following the most recent pacific passage can punch up high and then sustain for a bit despite the resetting of the wave. Models playing around with Scandy High evolution now for early December would really represent an excellent outcome for the wave break, perhaps sustained by a jet angle that has been quite NW/SE through the autumn so far. 

Anyway - slightly fewer charts and a bit more explanation?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

UKM144 - YES PLEASE! 

Very similar to the GEM so let’s see where that goes 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

UKM144 - YES PLEASE! 

Hmmmm.... It's good but I hate it when things get too 'humpy' to our east. This never used to happen but does regularly these last 15 years or so. 

[Bats32]

Some great runs this early evening. Lovely stuff.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Better late than never and the 1st of the early season to get the party started.

The idea guys is the pattern becomes more and more interesting...and this run could be gr8 with a few adjustments...but being as your all perfectionists know doubt you will be saying the uppers could be better and there's a lack of snow within the flow

Hey folks things have been that bad lately i would put out a boom for a slight ground frost

Edited November 21, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Dennis]

love it 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Better late than never and the 1st of the early season to get the party started.

Needs to shift South to be any good 

[Ali1977]

Just now, Dennis said:

love it 

Just a shake the U.K. doesn’t tap into anything cold on this run, the high needs a slightly better SW/NE orientation 

[TSNWK]

upp

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

love it 

uppers are pants! - UK low needs to get shift on and scoot across to the right and down...

[MJB]

Just now, MJB said:

Needs to shift South to be any good 

[TSNWK]

think so far I prefer UK met up 144 anyway - the low on GFS over  UK is a pain and just sits across and is starting to fill.....

I hope this post ages well when UKM168 arrives

Edited November 21, 2023 by TSNWK

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Hmmmm.... It's good but I hate it when things get too 'humpy' to our east. This never used to happen but does regularly these last 15 years or so. 

Thanks... what do you mean by " humpy " to our east please?

[MattH]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

You’re posting a lot of charts here and not explaining the thinking - at least I’m struggling to follow it. If you are suggesting MJO phase 6 in early December I think that is a stretch. I’d say mid December for that and this assumes a smooth and hopefully strong progression. Next phase 7/8/1 impacts then follow as late December.

In terms of December as a whole the monthly mslp ECCC chart you have here for December is interesting though runs a bit counter to IO phases of the next wave. Never say never - perhaps the wave break that is approaching following the most recent pacific passage can punch up high and then sustain for a bit despite the resetting of the wave. Models playing around with Scandy High evolution now for early December would really represent an excellent outcome for the wave break, perhaps sustained by a jet angle that has been quite NW/SE through the autumn so far. 

Anyway - slightly fewer charts and a bit more explanation?

This exactly...

There is so much conjecture to that post, unfortunately, it makes little sense at all. While the overall post explains what would happen if the MJO did evolve like that, the timing and correlation to the current and upcoming evolution couldn't be any further from the truth. There is simply too much of a jump in evolution here. A correct discussion and piece of information on showing what could happen under those circumstances, but once again this is another A+B=C outcome using the MJO, it doesn't work like that and with little relevance dropping it onto current and upcoming time frames, unfortunately.

Matt.

[Dennis]

the days are ahead winter fans 

see you later ..... be back soon 

[Mucka]

Lot's of ifs buts and maybes

But maybe if we can get somewhere around here day 6/7 we will be well in the game.

 

So let's see where and how ECM models that shortwave low 96h+

 

Overall I think we will need to get the luck for all the pieces to fall into place but we need the pieces first.

[northwestsnow]

Huge swings in the output this evening...

Recycled amplification in the Atlantic is a winner..

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks... what do you mean by " humpy " to our east please?

The low over north eastern Europe going all rotund. Stops the transition to a smooth uninterupted easterly. 

[sheikhy]

Calling this now we about to get a cracker of an ecm this evening!!!

[Guest]

I don't think the 168hr UKMO is what many would be expecting:

Volatile output for sure.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Guest

[CoventryWeather]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

I don't think the 168hr UKMO is what many would be expecting:

Volatile output for sure.

Still likely to retrogress briefly to Greenland but it's the tropical feature that's impacting it I'm afraid. It's this I think that models are perhaps struggling with. 

[MJB]

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

I don't think the 168hr UKMO is what many were expecting:

Volatile output for sure.

The NW looked favourite when flicked between the 120 -144

168 well into FI currently I'd say