Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hey folks sometimes things can just happen at the drop of an hat. 1987 we had most of Europe mild but intense cold lurked over scandy and Russia..High pressure backed West out of the Azores and pushed further North...Low pressure sank over the North Sea and the floodgates were to open..strange thing is that the met forecast this to be a brief episode with the Arctic quickly becoming cut off...The weather gods had other ideas and we embarked on one of the worst freezes in living memory over a 2 week period.

The point of this story is number one that year was a very average Winter and no 2 sometimes you have to expect the unexpected with the weather as it has means to creep up and suprise even the best of em.

Edited November 22, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

You can understand why the Met aren’t gunning for cold with this many different solutions on the table. 

That may well be true but here are the means for that day.Enough for them to sit up and take a lot of notice

[Ali1977]

Day 10 GEFS Mean anomaly - I’ll take that  

[Premiere Neige]

The met office are non-committal about anything past day 5 if you look at any of their forecasts. Hopefully that clears that up!

[Lukesluckybunch]

The last 2 runs of the gfs have been quite reluctant to clear that shortwave through..it's not been a smooth process..so the easterly can come in.as one other person said it showed the easterly arriving tuesday..the 12Z delayed it till weds/thurs..the best runs so far this evening for me are the GEM and ICON..UKMO wasn't bad either!

[Cloud 10]

Quite an incredible UKMO day 7 chart with its multi-chain of HP from Siberia to Greenland,and very cold at the surface for the UK.

 

 

 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

The upcoming colder period should kill off the weeds that continue to thrive, Ive seen dandelion flowers reappear recently and flies swarming about.. many late flowering summer plants still in full bloom, and spring bulbs appearing. Very much the same thing happened last year and was kicked into touch during early-mid Dec. 

Yep might be time to retrim my lavinder for autumn again, this time ready for spring rather than false spring, it's flowered again.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Quite an incredible UKMO day 7 chart with its multi-chain of HP from Siberia to Greenland,and very cold at the surface for the UK.

 

 

 

Slack air , could be -10c somewhere under that at night 

[Chesil View]

37 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS Det is a less severe 2010 redux

Less severe ,for now.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Quite an incredible UKMO day 7 chart with its multi-chain of HP from Siberia to Greenland,and very cold at the surface for the UK.

 

 

 

Is that showing highs of 2-4c?

[ScottSnow]

41 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Just being realistic. There’s little point hyping up every deterministic run.. at this stage. 

I get that you want to keep your feet on the ground.

At the moment all I am looking for is signs/patterns. I am positive the way things are heading.

I did mention the other day that Dec 2012 was very similar to this and that did end up a damp squib so we do need to tread with caution as you have mentioned.

[Seasonal Trim]

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Is that showing highs of 2-4c?

0 -1 IMBY

[Cloud 10]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Is that showing highs of 2-4c?

Looks to be below freezing over parts of Scotland and Wales,and as you say 2-4c for many other parts.

[terrier]

Well big ECM coming up here. Think we need it to move towards the GFS if the met office are going to sit up and take notice. 

[sheikhy]

Ecm running.....

[Bats32]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ecm running.....

I can't look!

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm running.....

Someone bring it back!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow for the south in FI on GFs…

It'll be rain here, same as last year sea to warm, might get some landing small hail stones that look like snow again though lol 

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T72, and follows the GFS re the placement of the pesky low, and, indeed, consistent with ECM 6z:

In fact a bit further SE than the 6z

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 v GFS:

Big change since the 0z T108, here for reference:

[Mucka]

Big difference with how ECM is handling the shortwave, now like GFS, as opposed to its output yesterday and much better Atlantic ridge as a consequence.

[bluearmy]

Surprised how many didn’t trust the ec op to follow it’s 06z run when all the other models are now on the same page 

have some faith !

[booferking]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Surprised how many didn’t trust the ec op to follow it’s 06z run when all the other models are now on the same page 

have some faith !

Gfs leading the way for days now crazy times  

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

No  

 

Man the joys of being a cold snowy lover!!!!gfs has lead the way on a different level this week!im seriously impressed with it at this moment in time!!

Edited November 22, 2023 by Captain Shortwave
Let’s keep it clean both of you :)