Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[stewfox]

So in summary today for anyone that's new here. 10 years ago I use to do a high level summary to help folks putting it in laymen terms.

Morning

GFS is pants it's the worse performing model. ECM on the button. GFS never handles these situations will follow ECM shortly. 

Evening

GFS on the button has been for a week first to spot the trend. ECM now  following with a tail between its legs. ECM useless in these situations. 

 

 

 

[sheikhy]

Good gosh according to the ecm mean we are gona be in this cold wintry air for sometime!!!!!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

The ECM mean is brilliant..surely the models have got this now,and we are in for a special spell of weather!

[Mark wheeler]

18 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Not even 1 mild run in the pack there, what a shift wow

And every single individual run on mogreps end up sub zero in all locations I posted . Brilliant !!!!

[Cold Winter Night]

The EPS clusters strongly support High Latitude Blocking + Euro Low days 5-7.
The Operational is definitely not on its own.

Thereafter, all clusters now assigned to the Negative NAO category at Day 10. I'd say a much better ensemble than before.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Cold Winter Night

[Firefly2005]

Can someone tell me in simple terms what is going on and why we’re so excited and how certain it is?

 

On a side note it has felt like snow is on the way here in next few days in the Pennines for about 48 hrs. I know that sounds ridiculous but it has

Edited November 22, 2023 by Firefly2005

[feb1991blizzard]

eps!!!!!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

The EPS clusters strongly support High Latitude Blocking + Euro Low days 5-7.
The Operational is definitely not on its own.

Thereafter, all clusters now assigned to the Negative NAO category. I'd say a much better ensemble than before.

Yes, I was just looking at those.  There may be 6 clusters in the T120-T168 timeframe, but they all follow the same basic evolution.  Where they differ is how quickly they transition from Atlantic ridge (purple border) to -NAO (green border) which unequivocally now looks to be the direction of travel from the EPS.

[MAF]

And can. members stop posting one word posts which have zero meaning to the subject of Model Output Discussion

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Okay.. 

So that explains where I’ve been going wrong with my assessment of the broader situation then. 

I’ll go fetch the sledge..

No mate your putting all your eggs in one basket and coming to the assumption that no block is possible due too the lack of forcing to warrant it!

And the bigger picture suggests we are a small area in a large Northern Hemisphere where small little variables can play havoc on the conditions we end up with at the surface. For me the fact the jet dived South and allowed for such cold air to encroach the NE is a big part of why we find ourselves in this position right now. That an the fact the PV seems to be having a real difficult time in organising regarding its positioning. And for me the PV will be the big decision maker in whether we go cold or not.

Hey folks sometimes i think all the biggest off background drivers could be overridden by some warm waters around the Irish sea...that was a joke but you get my meaning.

[Uncertainty]

I wonder what it said a few days ago??? Hmmm???

Oh wait… that’s YESTERDAY!!

[phil nw.]

The pattern is evolving more in favour of further cold next week, which is a real bonus so early in the season.

Signs of an Atlantic slow down has been there for a few runs but a step up in the blocking showing today has created plenty of positives for coldies.

Understandable that some concerns have been expressed about the small lows clearing sufficiently south east to draw the cold westwards early next week.

Many of us have been here before when it comes to small features but given the current model agreement of next week's overall pattern there's good reason to be optimistic this evening.

[cheeky_monkey]

im 100% sure we are locked into a warm dry winter here in Western Canada ..which can only be good news for the UK and Europe as that's where the cold will go this season...happy sledging 

[Metwatch]

A throwback to some of the output last year about a week later than today. Incredible to be doing it all again for the second year in a row!

Edited November 22, 2023 by Metwatch

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I was just looking at those.  There may be 6 clusters in the T120-T168 timeframe, but they all follow the same basic evolution.  Where they differ is how quickly they transition from Atlantic ridge (purple border) to -NAO (green border) which unequivocally now looks to be the direction of travel from the EPS.

I'm quite surprised how rapidly the ensemble switched from little interest in Neg. NAO in previous runs to all Neg. NAO clusters tonight.

Normally such a switch would be reason for a lot of caution, but given the developments we see on all the models, we can have a bit more confidence in this potential outcome, I think.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

True, need that ridge to build in stronger to the N and NW following the trigger low sinking SE, to prevent more lows dropping SE to maintain the cold NE flow.

Unless the trough dropping se backs a bit further west to keep the U.K. on the cold side with no warm sector and se flow ahead of it 

[jon_d1983]

for those who might be wondering about the CW mentioned way earlier in the thread. Judah Cohen has said the models now showing a warming. More details on impact in Europe can be found here: 

AO/PV Blog Update | Verisk's Atmospheric and Environmental Research

WWW.AER.COM

but in short it it “could” lead to prolonged cold in Europe 

[swfc]

Hope it all looks good in the morning otherwise it will be a atleast its dry. Relax and enjoy the output even if its done a 180 in the morning

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

I'm quite surprised how rapidly the ensemble switched from little interest in Neg. NAO in previous runs to all Neg. NAO clusters tonight.

Normally such a switch would be reason for a lot of caution, but given the developments we see on all the models, we can have a bit more confidence in this potential outcome, I think.

I think the answer lies in how the ECM (and therefore presumably the EPS) struggled until the eleventh hour with that shortwave in the Atlantic, and only resolved it this morning on the 6z in favour of the GFS solution.

[Chasbrown]

Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Chasbrown said:

Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?

@That ECM Wed 5th Dec 2012

[pad199207]

Just now, Chasbrown said:

Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?

December 2012 That ECM

[Relativistic]

Just now, Chasbrown said:

Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?

December 2012

[Bats32]

Has there ever been such x model support that has failed?

[Howie]

Just now, Bats32 said:

Has there ever been such x model support that has failed?

Christmas 2021 lol