Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Bats32]

All the means are absolutely solid! Crazy charts today.

[Met4Cast]

EC det was on the milder side of the coldest cluster.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

EC det was on the milder side of the coldest cluster.

Awesome charts - and it’s great to see the det as one of the less cold ones of that grouping!!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome charts - and it’s great to see the det as one of the less cold ones of that grouping!!

Room for more upgrade potential 

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM EPS mean, T240:

BANK!

It's not often you see a mean ECM EPS showing upper heights almost to the North of Greenland. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168:

Full house of -NAO charts, I’m not sure there’s that much difference between the 6 clusters to be honest, first 3 look similar to the op, clusters 4 and 5 have the low further south, cluster 6 winds more northerly.

T192-T240:

The question here maybe the extent to which the block homes in on Greenland (cluster 2), or continues to hedge its bets to our north (cluster 1), as the op is in 2 and the control is in 1, they are both equally likely on the flip of a coin at the moment.  And both super for future prospects.

[Cloud 10]

ECM mean for 1st day of winter.

 

[James Maidstone]

In terms of extending the cold snap, there seems general consensus of the models for letting the Atlantic in 7/8th December, although a minority of cross model ensemble members support retaining the cold.   Historically, how often does the block delay the warm up or more than hold its ground and extend the cold?

[Kentspur]

45 minutes ago, topo said:

I don't think it is that rare for Stockholm and very late November, but what is rare is the continuous cold and the subzero temperatures for as long as the models predict. That is rare.

By the way, it looks like just north of Stockholm all the Snökanon(lake effect from the Baltic Sea) will take place. A probably remarkable event, GFS predicts more than 50mm for the next week and probably it will be more (usually local models predict better these situations than global ones). So maybe record snow for those areas for that time of the year? It will be interesting to follow up.

I'm staying NW of Stockholm.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Kentspur said:

I'm staying NW of Stockholm.  

You should.of said mate..we had no idea

[mfhblue]

I'm starting to see a pleasing shape in these charts....

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

I'm staying NW of Stockholm.  

Oh.. I must have missed this…..

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, James Maidstone said:

In terms of extending the cold snap, there seems general consensus of the models for letting the Atlantic in 7/8th December, although a minority of cross model ensemble members support retaining the cold.   Historically, how often does the block delay the warm up or more than hold its ground and extend the cold?

Once the block is in place with entrenched cold (especially with snow cover) it becomes extremely stubborn to more - and when it does finally get moved there can be some good snow chances when the milder air hits it. 

[Bats32]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Once the block is in place with entrenched cold (especially with snow cover) it becomes extremely stubborn to more - and when it does finally get moved there can be some good snow chances when the milder air hits it. 

MJO and Canadian warming should help mid month too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thank you for the warm welcome back folks, very much appreciated. I haven’t lurked until recently, glad to see the forum as lively and ‘shoot from the hip’ as ever.

 

For me this huge ‘rounding out’ of an LP to our SW doesn’t seem reasonable in the hemispheric set up we have.  Not to say it won’t but ECM 12z  to me is case in point.  Also I think there is some very extensive cold pooling this year….might be imaginary but it does seem so.

 

BFTP

[James Maidstone]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Once the block is in place with entrenched cold (especially with snow cover) it becomes extremely stubborn to more - and when it does finally get moved there can be some good snow chances when the milder air hits it. 

Thanks, - I get that, but at range the models indicate that frontal snow would sweep it aside and milder air follows quickly, but if I remember correctly in 2010-2011 the block kept pushing back, but the block was colder and stronger then?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ec zonal winds! Is something a brewing!

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[smith25]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Thank you for the warm welcome back folks, very much appreciated. I haven’t lurked until recently, glad to see the forum as lively and ‘shoot from the hip’ as ever.

 

For me this huge ‘rounding out’ of an LP to our SW doesn’t seem reasonable in the hemispheric set up we have.  Not to say it won’t but ECM 12z  to me is case in point.  Also I think there is some very extensive cold pooling this year….might be imaginary but it does seem so.

 

BFTP

Welcome back BFTP.  I'm a long time lurker here and you are definitely one of the posters I always pay attention too.

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Thank you for the warm welcome back folks, very much appreciated. I haven’t lurked until recently, glad to see the forum as lively and ‘shoot from the hip’ as ever.

 

For me this huge ‘rounding out’ of an LP to our SW doesn’t seem reasonable in the hemispheric set up we have.  Not to say it won’t but ECM 12z  to me is case in point.  Also I think there is some very extensive cold pooling this year….might be imaginary but it does seem so.

 

BFTP

Welcome back Bftp.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, smith25 said:

Welcome back BFTP.  I'm a long time lurker here and you are definitely one of the posters I always pay attention too.

Thanks pal, appreciated.  There are plenty of great posters on here.  I hope to add again this winter….and a ‘winter’ maybe?  Interesting re the behaviour of this El Nino….will post some bits soon
 

BFTP

[Premiere Neige]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Ec zonal winds! Is something a brewing!

I make that 10 members going for a reversal at the end of the run. A few days ago it was 4 (I think)...

Edit: might be 11 actually 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Premiere Neige

[Kentspur]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

You should.of said mate..we had no idea

Jel are we lol na in all honesty I'd love to bring it back for us all on here! The irony is at one point it looked like the same NEly winds were showing from there to where I live  

Edited November 24, 2023 by Kentspur

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Kentspur said:

Jel are we lol na in all honesty I'd love to bring it back for us all on heretic! the irony is at one point it looked like the same NEly winds were showing from there to where I live  

You might be laughing now mate..but you won't be when the hotel give ya the electric bill.

Seriously enjoy yourself mate..Locked in cold around those parts for quite sometime now,and now we see signs of it making inroads towards the UK.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes a great mean for day ten on the ECM

500mb/geo pot heights and 850,s

and a ruddy good CPC to go with that

De-built temps and dew points

Ec control not bad either,...it's just trickling out now.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

wheres’s the PV?  This is good stuff going forward for cold possibilities  
 

BFTP