Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

UK 168

Like the icon, very good for the cold extension 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

UK 168

Lovely looking synoptic wise.. slack and cold at surface I think.. uppers unsure ?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Lovely looking synoptic wise.. slack and cold at surface I think.. uppers unsure ?

Low temps in the slack winds id say 

[Mike Poole]

GEM similar to UKMO at T168, very good:

[Harveyslugger]

3 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

Isn't that what the GFS specialises in? (Blowing up lows out of all proportion)

Yess it does it all the time.so I wouldn't worry about it right now as long as the other models don't follow it.which I think is unlikely 

[Neilsouth]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Discount it at your peril - It's "won" every model battle thus far.

Not when it blows up lows! 

[Met4Cast]

Looking through the GEFS postage stamps for the key timeframe a few blow up the blow similar to the det but there's a lot of support for the UKMO evolution, the blowing up of the low continues to be a minority solution. UKMO more broadly supported by the earlier MOGREPS-G, too.

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Not when it blows up lows! 

Doesn't mean it's wrong, of course.

[MJB]

Now an Easterly 

[Ali1977]

We are on the cusp of a 2 week or more cold spell - coldies should be very happy ️

[Tim Bland]

Oosh… much better from GFS long term! 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Now an Easterly 

Another perfectly timed wave-break to throw up another block.. surely we're not going to get quite that lucky!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Another perfectly timed wave-break to throw up another block.. surely we're not going to get quite that lucky!

Looks like we could be in this for the long haul mate!!!!

[Hathers]

GFS long term going into winter is superb 

[Chesil View]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Another perfectly timed wave-break to throw up another block.. surely we're not going to get quite that lucky!

Why not? Our new CC weather regimes seem to be all or nothing.

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Looks like we could be in this for the long haul mate!!!!

Oh yes Really want that snow on Thurs first but a prolonged cold spell will be great either way - looks like quite an unstable one too

[TSNWK]

Any news on the means please?I find them very difficult to draw conclusions from and in particular any trends from previous runs.

[MJB]

PV all over the shop, just get the HP to Greenland and it's a lengthy lengthy cold spell

[ICE COLD]

UKMO the best with the uppers this evening

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

PV all over the shop, just get the HP to Greenland and it's a lengthy lengthy cold spell

Indeed- there’s scope brewing for a full on lengthy spell now- if it runs - the uk and parts of Europe are locked in- and any cold will continue in intensity…. Good this evening .. so far.

Edited November 25, 2023 by tight isobar

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not sure what charts the Met Office is using as it’s showing a Westerly for Friday!

 

Also they’ve dropped the snowfall moving in from the South from their update today

Edited November 25, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO the best with the uppers this evening

I use -8 as rule of thumb for 0 at surface.. so not far of ice days there.. 

[Sweatyman]

14 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not sure what charts the Met Office is using as it’s showing a Westerly for Friday!

 

Also they’ve dropped the snowfall moving in from the South from their update today

These are hopeless. Always have been

[Bricriu]

37 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Another perfectly timed wave-break to throw up another block.. surely we're not going to get quite that lucky!

The GFS were right when they led the way with this cold spell. So therefore they must be right about the Easterly;)  When they are showing a breakdown or relaxation of cold we can discount it as the usual GFS rubbish. This is why I was dismissing it as crud until I saw the Easterly:)

 

But seriously after six weeks of rain,  cold and dry will do nicely , if we can't have snow. A  heavy rime frost like last year  would be  a bonus as it took on the appearance of snow after a few days.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Bricriu

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Discount it at your peril - It's "won" every model battle thus far.

Errr …..

anyway, gefs not as amplified to our west days 10/11 

[IanT]

1 hour ago, Garyboy said:

 

Am I missing something, or are others seeing something I don't see

Well.....that's one run from one model for one time on one day.

Interest here is being sustained by the wider wintery picture that is now visible with some consistency across models for an extended period, through the reliable forecast horizon and beyond.

I don't think anyone is anticipating widespread low-lying snow across the SE - that's a tough assignment in November - but this is a cracking start to the winter period in modelling terms.