Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[January Snowstorm]

Great ukmo, important because it leaves the gfs totally isolated tonight!!

Synoptically stunning, but then you go and check you know what and it's a little deflating  

[Allseasons-Si]

ICON snow chances....

ex'd UKMO is v good.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Added chart

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168 

RAMP ALERT

[WeatherArc]

Thursday-Friday really looking good for especially south-central areas on the GFS this evening

  

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Great ukmo, important because it leaves the gfs totally isolated tonight!!

Synoptically stunning, but then you go and check you know what and it's a little deflating  

Colder uppers feed in after the low moves East, it will get even better later down the line I think

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

UKMO 168

Good signs from UKMO and ICON that the block is robust, and lows will slide, GFS rather more tentative.  I think it is clear from the runs today and yesterday, that the models are still very much feeling their way towards how strong the block is, but also how immovable the cold air is likely to be once entrenched.  

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Good signs from UKMO and ICON that the block is robust, and lows will slide, GFS rather more tentative.  I think it is clear from the runs today and yesterday, that the models are still very much feeling their way towards how strong the block is, but also how immovable the cold air is likely to be once entrenched.  

I was thinking just this.. what could be driving these differences so far between euro models and US GFS could be model of the jet ? 

[January Snowstorm]

The GEM also brings Sunday's low in at a higher angle, siding with gfs. However its much better afterwards as it backs winds North again.

I dunno folks, I struggle to get too excited about this event. The honest cold light of day analysis really is that it's not going to be cold enough for most. Yes some favoured spots turn lucky and will see snow.

Long term is completely unknown. History has often put us zonal after a week or so of cold. A good ECM might lighten my humour

Gem,

Edited November 26, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[BartyHater]

I'm finding the 12 GFS underwhelming to say the least - that low has been blown up to an almost ridiculous level at 96hrs, I'm not convinced we get enough entrenched cold to ensure next weekends Low is guaranteed to slide and as a result the Atlantic finds it far to easy to return by midweek next week. Will again need to see where it sits in the pack, probably on the mild side I'd suggest, but the worrying trend first picked up on yesterday's 06GFS hasn't gone away...in fact barring todays 06, it's continued to manifest itself.    

Edited November 26, 2023 by BartyHater

[NewEra21]

I’d rather sacrifice the possible snow of Thursday and see these lows much further south, so we stay on the much colder side.

We saw last December that once the Atlantic gets in, it’s not always an easy route back to anything cold.

[MattStoke]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

I’d rather sacrifice the possible snow of Thursday and see these lows much further south, so we stay on the much colder side.

We saw last December that once the Atlantic gets in, it’s not always an easy route back to anything cold.

There is no model showing milder air coming in after the low on Thursday regardless of what happens with the low.

[throwoff]

Living in Kent can’t say I’m totally happy yet. Let’s move that snow a little further south and east and bingo

[Sweatyman]

Just now, throwoff said:

Living in Kent can’t say I’m totally happy yet. Let’s move that snow a little further south and east and bingo

Let's not!

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There is no model showing milder air coming in after the low on Thursday regardless of what happens with the low.

The further south the better it is for cold though, and it sets the scene for next weekend onwards 

[TSNWK]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The GEM also brings Sunday's low in at a higher angle, siding with gfs. However its much better afterwards as it backs winds North again.

I dunno folks, I struggle to get too excited about this event. The honest cold light of day analysis really is that it's not going to be cold enough for most. Yes some favoured spots turn lucky and will see snow.

Long term is completely unknown. History has often put us zonal after a week or so of cold. A good ECM might lighten my humour

So it’s the North American against the euros… interesting..

[tight isobar]

Get the full set of 12z in b4 misery- or indeed euphoria.

Edited November 26, 2023 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

Just taking the gfs in isolation as i know it blows up the lows a tad but boy,...there could be blizzard conditions from the N Midlands northwards then trending further south as the low clears to the E/SE.

this is facsinating model watching that's for sure

Edited November 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[BartyHater]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I was thinking just this.. what could be driving these differences so far between euro models and US GFS could be model of the jet ? 

I think we need to wait for the 12ECM before assuming there'll still be big differences between it and GFS....lets just hope it doesn't drift in that direction and develops some wedges to keep the Atlantic at bay or sliding. We really don't want it looking like the 12GFS at 168hrs.

[Dancerwithwings]

That’s nice  

[TSNWK]

Just now, BartyHater said:

I think we need to wait for the 12ECM before assuming there'll still be big differences between it and GFS....lets just hope it doesn't drift in that direction and develops some wedges to keep the Atlantic at bay or sliding. We really don't want it looking like the 12GFS at 168hrs.

Fair comment., on ecm… thanks 

[MattStoke]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

The further south the better it is for cold though, and it sets the scene for next weekend onwards 

Colder air looks to push southward as it moves away.

I can only think that people see the slightly colder air without the low and think any smaller features would then be less marginal, but that often isn’t the case. You generally don’t need deep cold for frontal snow, you generally do for smaller features (and generally colder than anything being modelled). 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I’d rather sacrifice the possible snow of Thursday and see these lows much further south, so we stay on the much colder side.

We saw last December that once the Atlantic gets in, it’s not always an easy route back to anything cold.

To things there mate

1. Background drivers seem more positive this year.

2. That was a La Nina Winter...very much front loaded..this year we have a cold snap early in an El Nino backloaded Winter.

Plenty of positives and not worth using previous events as a marker.

[TSNWK]

Gfs day 8 mean… does not like it is representation of op… and I actually felt it looked better than 06z gfs day 8  mean 

Edited November 26, 2023 by TSNWK

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Gfs day 8 mean… does not like it is representation of up… and I actually felt it looked better than 06z gfs day 8 mean

While the GFS disagrees with the UKMO/ICON etc quite early on around blowing up the low more I wouldn't worry too much about what the mean is later on in the run, I think it will come around and it has done in the last few days around other lows.

[throwoff]

17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Let's not!

Care to expand?