Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Mark wheeler]

You little Beauty

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Frigid by the end..

Indeed.

ECM once again producing great 12z charts.. not too dissimilar to what we saw on Friday with the Atlantic to a standstill. Hopefully they're onto something here 

 

[nick sussex]

The transition between day 8 into 9 is like one of those how did that happen moments .

Its like the ECM parted the Red Sea !

SSO .

Suspicious Synoptic Outcome 

The ECM does a Flash Gordon. It amplifies the troughing just in time and manages to squeeze the ridge further ne through the eye of a needle .

I’d of course love to see a Scandi high but you’d need the ridge further north with a clean route ne at day 8.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So many knee jerk reactions to not only run by run but frame by frame! Please guys just be patient and wait for the full run to be out if you don’t know what it’s showing (like I usually don’t!) just wait for the experts. It’s very difficult for amateurs to learn when there’s so many different reactions to different frames.

 

As always keep up the good work people. Least if we don’t get what we want here it’s looking very cold for Stockholm

We love knee jerk reactions though, and we are all trying to find any sliver of hope that this cold blast lasts till the end of February, it’s not a big ask really. I do apologise for the amount of posts I do though, all off a mobile phone so hence the amount of grammar issues - I do love the chase though

[Jackski4]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

We love knee jerk reactions though, and we are all trying to find any sliver of hope that this cold blast lasts till the end of February, it’s not a big ask really. I do apologise for the amount of posts I do though, all off a mobile phone so hence the amount of grammar issues - I do love the chase though

Don’t be silly you’re very intelligent and clearly know your beans. I love reading your posts, don’t quit!

[Bullseye]

29 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Heights gone at 168hrs!!

Only one way from here, and it ain't cold

Yip, only one way... and that is three days later the UK is still under cold air with very cold air still present over Scandinavia, who are having some of their coldest weather since 2010. 

Based on this evening's run, Atlantic influence is no where to be seen for going out to near first 10 days of December - many expected first half of December to be Atlantic driven.

AO forecast to drop further going into December, zonal winds below average with hints of warming over Canada. As noted by @Big Gally, warmer air making inroads looking to be pushed back again going by tonight's EC - makes a nice change. 

All is looking very promising for start of meteorological winter

 

@Big Gally

Edited November 26, 2023 by Bullseye

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The transition between day 8 into 9 is like one of those how did that happen moments .

Its like the ECM parted the Red Sea !

SSO .

Suspicious Synoptic Outcome 

The ECM does a Flash Gordon. It amplifies the troughing just in time and manages to squeeze the ridge further ne through the eye of a needle .

I’d of course love to see a Scandi high but you’d need the ridge further north with a clean route ne .

 

It will definitely be gone on the next run. The route to where it got at 240hrs just isn't practical. Nice to look at but pure FI

[AdrianHull]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

It will definitely be gone on the next run. The route to where it got at 240hrs just isn't practical. Nice to look at but pure FI

Could you explain why to Newbies?

[That ECM]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The transition between day 8 into 9 is like one of those how did that happen moments .

Its like the ECM parted the Red Sea !

SSO .

Suspicious Synoptic Outcome 

The ECM does a Flash Gordon. It amplifies the troughing just in time and manages to squeeze the ridge further ne through the eye of a needle .

I’d of course love to see a Scandi high but you’d need the ridge further north with a clean route ne .

 

Tbh nick, someone suggested it might happen and I thought, not a chance energy is going over the top. I was surprised to say the least.

 

I thought, well maybe as the pv is over the other side and the jet stream is weak that’s why it happened.  But yes I was surprised but hey we can look and dream until the morning at least.

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, AdrianHull said:

Could you explain why to Newbies?

Because at 168hrs a tiny area of high pressure that no other models show to our Southwest moves through us and into Scandi. The initial high is very doubtful and hence rest of run 100/1 stuff

[Lukesluckybunch]

Models really starting to firm up on some very cold weather now the next 7 days..my location has a maximum of 3c on Thursday!

[terrier]

Wow what an absolute beauty of an ECM run there. Long way back to anything mild if the ecm is to be believed. But it definitely ties in with what Chris flakes was saying earlier on countryfile 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,has to be one of the best ECM charts I have seen for a very very long time this 12z ECM is mind boggling if correct with Greenland high being replaced with major northern blocking that would surely put the cat amongst the pigeons Exeter ie met office will need to reprogram Glosea .Lets wait with baited breath and everything else crossed.

[Ali1977]

Another model , high res but only runs till T102 so Thurs lunchtime - this has the snow piling up earlier so I imagine lots into Friday 

[AdrianHull]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Because at 168hrs a tiny area of high pressure that no other models show to our Southwest moves through us and into Scandi. The initial high is very doubtful and hence rest of run 100/1 stuff

I once backed a horse for 150/1 and it won . But fair point

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It will definitely be gone on the next run. The route to where it got at 240hrs just isn't practical. Nice to look at but pure FI

I actually felt it was quiet plausibile between day 9 and 10.. heights were being pushed east and pumped up be energy over Greenland.. putting pressure on trough over scandi that was shunted south as consequence…

 

[phil nw.]

For deeper cold I much prefer this Ecm.

Those north easterly winds heading in at the end of the week bring in the Arctic Continental air.

This will likely develop little disturbances owing to the increased temperature contrast between the colder air and warmer North sea.

More likelihood of more  prolonged snow showers which could fall anywhere.

Overall though with more cold runs today the general outlook continues to look more wintry as go towards the weekend.

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

You little Beauty

Cold and snow lovers, let someone slap you across the face if it means the ECM D10 verifying. It's the real deal - Scandi High with a cold train incoming and instability likely to produce white stuff.

[Frigid]

Great read tonight guys, can't keep up 

ECM 12z is perfect for prolonging any cold, and to not see a breakdown around the 5/6th. Much prefer the slack flow opposed to a deepening low. Bit imby but we don't benefit much from them anyways and it would allow for homegrown cold to entrench. Also it'd mean a lesser chance of it pulling warm Atlantic winds with it.. high risk high reward type event. But of course, for people south of the M4 it's a perfect scenario.

I'll just leave this here.. chart of the week.

  

 

[nick sussex]

There’s a way to get to a Scandi high with the ECM trend but normally you have the ridge further north .

The ECM gets there because it amplifies the upstream flow which causes the troughing to the west to pivot nw . This opens up that gap to the north and the high ridges there . At the same time the slack low just to the east is forced se .

The issue isn’t day 9 into 10 , that would be a pretty normal evolution .But 8 into 9 . I’m not saying it’s impossible but is highwire with a blindfold on .

Lets hope we can get more amplitude day 7 into 8 . 

[Spah1]

22 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

So many knee jerk reactions to not only run by run but frame by frame! Please guys just be patient and wait for the full run to be out if you don’t know what it’s showing (like I usually don’t!) just wait for the experts. It’s very difficult for amateurs to learn when there’s so many different reactions to different frames.

 

As always keep up the good work people. Least if we don’t get what we want here it’s looking very cold for Stockholm

Hate these type of posts. What’s the point of model watching if you can’t comment on the run? Should we all wait until 90 mins is up in a footy match before making comment on the game? 

[Snowman.]

Give the ECM a few days and you'll be getting a long fetched Easerly, -10 uppers instability would grow the lot.

Exceptional  run, one that would truly have me excited.

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another model , high res but only runs till T102 so Thurs lunchtime - this has the snow piling up earlier so I imagine lots into Friday 

I think that model is a high resolution version of the GFS.

[Rain All Night]

Just now, MattStoke said:

I think that model is a high resolution version of the GFS.

Agree, or at least, it uses the output from the latest GFS run for its initial conditions

[LetItSnow!]

49 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Heights gone at 168hrs!!

Only one way from here, and it ain't cold

The novelty of model watching run by run, as this actually turned into an absolute beauty of a run and sets us into an very cold first half to December.