Winter is coming: Some early thoughts on Winter 2023/2024

[Nick F]

An early look at the possible weather patterns that may develop this coming winter. El Nino will be one of the biggest drivers of patterns, but will also look at other drivers that may play their part.

View the full blog here

[Sceptical]

A mild December and January. Where's the Prozac  

[sorepaw1]

I'm hoping for a milder than average winter, and an early spring .

My house is struggling to keep warm this Autumn for some reason,  maybe because everything is so damp after the cool wet summer. 

[Buzz]

49 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

A mild December and January. Where's the Prozac  

The milder the better as far as I'm concerned due to the high energy costs.

[jmp223]

Winter is my favourite season and I only really participate on here Oct-Feb..to enjoy the relentless pursuit of cold ("get the cold locked in and the snow will follow") and interact on the model/regional discussions thread.  Generally we all get excited about a potential for 516dam, -16 850 uppers from a t+120 chart, and then it all falls apart the day before.  Rinse and repeat.  But it sure is fun! And on rare occasions, the chart does verify and we are caked in the white stuff.

A repeat of the chart below would be amazing, although highly unlikely!

Edited October 16, 2023 by jmp223
Typos

[Jimmyh]

19 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

Winter is my favourite season and I only really participate on here Oct-Feb..to enjoy the relentless pursuit of cold ("get the cold locked in and the snow will follow") and interact on the model/regional discussions thread.  Generally we all get excited about a potential for 516dam, -16 850 uppers from a t+120 chart, and then it all falls apart the day before.  Rinse and repeat.  But it sure is fun! And on rare occasions, the chart does verify and we are caked in the white stuff.

A repeat of the chart below would be amazing, although highly unlikely!

I doubt I will ever forget that chart I was on work experience in Croydon. The old slam door trains. It got stuck and the points froze wow so cold

[jmp223]

Wow, unfortunately I was only 1 going on 2 so no memory lol Although the coldest winter I do remember was in 2010, that was some seriously entrenched cold.

 

[raz.org.rain]

4 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'm hoping for a milder than average winter, and an early spring .

My house is struggling to keep warm this Autumn for some reason,  maybe because everything is so damp after the cool wet summer. 

mild winter and early spring is probably likely as things stand. I wouldn't rule out one or two cold snaps, I'm going with early January or around NYE.

I hope it stays dry if we get record mild. Mild in winter almost always means rain, rain and more rain. Mild to average with wall to wall sunshine would be perfect, and would give us plenty of cold nights with frosts too.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hoping for a cold and sunny winter with a couple of snow events and the odd storm thrown in.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[ANYWEATHER]

5 hours ago, jmp223 said:

Winter is my favourite season and I only really participate on here Oct-Feb..to enjoy the relentless pursuit of cold ("get the cold locked in and the snow will follow") and interact on the model/regional discussions thread.  Generally we all get excited about a potential for 516dam, -16 850 uppers from a t+120 chart, and then it all falls apart the day before.  Rinse and repeat.  But it sure is fun! And on rare occasions, the chart does verify and we are caked in the white stuff.

A repeat of the chart below would be amazing, although highly unlikely!

Why is it highly unlikely? ..

[snowsummer]

The big kid in me wants a 1963 of course. Snowman building to begin Christmas Eve and end in February!! The sensible adult however thinks give me the mildest winter ever with a very early spring. Dreading the heating bills, i live in a house that confuses itself for a freezer! 

[Sceptical]

19 hours ago, Buzz said:

The milder the better as far as I'm concerned due to the high energy costs.

Definitely a benefit of a mild winter.  

[78/79]

19 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

I doubt I will ever forget that chart I was on work experience in Croydon. The old slam door trains. It got stuck and the points froze wow so cold

We were building some houses at the time. I can remember it being so cold that diesel froze in the tanks of the firms 7.5 ton lorries. The coldest I have ever been was in early  Jan 82,we were working near Bristol, and could only stand it for about half an hour at a time, and then we had to go inside and warm up. 

[Summer8906]

A distinctly dismal forecast, but not unexpected, as the El Nino winter from hell has been mentioned several times.

In a nutshell it seems like very mild and somewhat wet for Dec/Jan, then very wet and somewhat mild (though perhaps cold occasionally) for Feb, in this area. A winter to be "got through", by the sounds of it: a slog in which many of us will be counting the days to spring. Worrying echoes of recent "winters from hell" like 13/14, 15/16 or 19/20.

With a dismal July, August and - it seems - October overall, aside from the first 9 days, this threatens to become a very protracted period of disappointing weather if the forecast proves to be true. While March is not yet in the forecast, the 9 month period starting July will certainly be one of the most dismal 9 month periods for weather we've had.

Do we see any chance of a settled interlude before the winter pattern takes hold? Any chance of November providing a break of some kind?

It would certainly be unusual - though not unprecedented (see 19/20) - if unsettled weather sets in now and then doesn't relent until spring.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 16/10/2023 at 11:52, Buzz said:

The milder the better as far as I'm concerned due to the high energy costs.

Except lots of wet weather and moisture would necessitate heating to keep things dry.

We occasionally get very mild and dry (1988/89 being the obvious one) but more usually, very mild in Dec and Jan means endless damp. Only February realistically produces very mild but dry and sunny conditions.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[joggs]

The meto longer-term reads interesting for later November. I wonder if a November warming could be on the cards?

[jmp223]

On 16/10/2023 at 17:11, ANYWEATHER said:

Why is it highly unlikely? ..

510 dam lines over central/southern England isn't exactly a regular occurrence.

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

510 dam lines over central/southern England isn't exactly a regular occurrence.

But they do happen.......

[jmp223]

I never said they didn't, but for it to occur in any given year is unlikely.  That's why I said above that it would be highly unlikely.

[Downburst]

13 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Except lots of wet weather and moisture would necessitate heating to keep things dry.

We occasionally get very mild and dry (1988/89 being the obvious one) but more usually, very mild in Dec and Jan means endless damp. Only February realistically produces very mild but dry and sunny conditions.

Agree. Far easier to have a warm house in stable high pressure weather even if cold temps, even get solar gain. Wet and Windy at 8 to 10 degrees in January and 90% humidity is a lot harder to live with in my view.