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Storm Ciarán

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Josh Rubio Community Regular

Josh Rubio

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

I still don’t think this is anywhere near resolved. Models struggle to predict much smaller areas of regular low pressure systems, even on a normal day. 
 

Anything can happen between now and when the storm actually makes landfall. 

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Tamara
Tamara

This storm has been presenting as, and modelled as, an (especially intense) RACY jet straddling low with a diffluent trough & occlusion quickly rather than the Shapiro-Keyser variety with the spli

Tamara
Tamara

In very basic terms, the dynamics of this storm are quite different to the 1987 storm. Track & depth have obvious similarities, but unlike 1987 this storm does not possess the dynamics to create a

Wold Topper
Wold Topper

Reading back over the last couple of pages, their are some rather odd posts... perhaps one or two posters should take a break, make a brew, take a few deep breaths, its getting abit 'Facebook' in here

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

“It’s north” “it’s south” “it’s west” “it’s east “

 

can anyone with any actual credibility here comment on how this may be affecting us as some people (not me this far north) are actually worried. 

the storm has barely formed yet so saying it’s a french event is silly. Please, anyone?

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daveinSB Explorer

daveinSB

Posted
  • Location: Shepherds Bush W12 (Home), Mill Hill NW7 (Work)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Shepherds Bush W12 (Home), Mill Hill NW7 (Work)
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

“It’s north” “it’s south” “it’s west” “it’s east “

 

can anyone with any actual credibility here comment on how this may be affecting us as some people (not me this far north) are actually worried. 

the storm has barely formed yet so saying it’s a french event is silly. Please, anyone?

Ignore people commenting on individual model runs, and pay attention to the Met Office text and video forecast that are produced with expert human input from a blend of the computer models.

There will be significant impacts from wind and rain across a large part of southern England and Wales.

The Met Office deep dive, and the attendant charts are your best bet for now.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

“It’s north” “it’s south” “it’s west” “it’s east “

 

can anyone with any actual credibility here comment on how this may be affecting us as some people (not me this far north) are actually worried. 

the storm has barely formed yet so saying it’s a french event is silly. Please, anyone?

Agreed, the Storm needs to form as yet and when it does, it’ll explode, it’s how quick this will happen will determine its track, so by tomorrow morning confidence will be much higher regarding its North or South trajectory …..

It’s all to see 🫣

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

@Dancerwithwings and @daveinSB

 

Thankyou so much I thought I was losing my mind!😉

Runcorn does that to people.

😄

At least it's not Skelmersdale...

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
Just now, matty40s said:

Runcorn does that to people.

😄

At least it's not Skelmersdale...

Sorry off topic I lost my little dog two weeks ago and I think you’ve made me chuckle for the first time since with that comment!☺️

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Saint coolio Seasoned

Saint coolio

Posted
  • Location: Near Romsey, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: ☀️
  • Location: Near Romsey, Hampshire
Posted
57 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

I did a jfk-lhr flight in a similar jet stream a few years back, it was 5 hours and change. Turbulent half the journey though.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
44 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

“It’s north” “it’s south” “it’s west” “it’s east “

 

can anyone with any actual credibility here comment on how this may be affecting us as some people (not me this far north) are actually worried. 

the storm has barely formed yet so saying it’s a french event is silly. Please, anyone?

Ecm along with other models show the Worst  of the winds over northern France  it's output has changed very little in the last couple of days....The storm starts to batter the Bay of Biscay about this time tomorrow. ....

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

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Scuba steve Maestro

Scuba steve

Posted
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

I did a jfk-lhr flight in a similar jet stream a few years back, it was 5 hours and change. Turbulent half the journey though.

You can achieve some serious speed surfing the jet stream 

Experts are hailing a British Airways flight as the fastest subsonic New York to London journey.

The Boeing 747-436 reached speeds of 825 mph (1,327 km/h) as it rode a jet stream accelerated by Storm Ciara.

The four hours and 56 minutes flight arrived at Heathrow Airport 80 minutes ahead of schedule on Sunday morning. 

According to Flightradar24, an online flight tracking service, it beat a previous five hours 13 minutes record held by Norwegian.

The BBC has been unable to independently verify the record as no complete database of flight times was available. 

Aviation consultant and former BA pilot Alastair Rosenschein said the aeroplane reached a "phenomenal speed".

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78/79 Accomplished

78/79

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
Posted

Just listened to Ian Fergusson on our local weather. He's made up my mind , dentist is being cancelled for Thursday .

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Scuba steve Maestro

Scuba steve

Posted
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Arnside ,where people go to die 9000m Asl
Posted
16 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Just listened to Ian Fergusson on our local weather. He's made up my mind , dentist is being cancelled for Thursday .

Poor dentist ,who did he offend 😂

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Ryan H Apprentice

Ryan H

Posted
  • Location: Ockley, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Tornados and Windstsorms.
  • Location: Ockley, Surrey
Posted

One of the things I am worried about Storm Ciarán is how it would affect my respite since that place was next to those trees. If the storm gets really intense then the tree would ended up falling down on the place. 
image.thumb.png.c41b5fd6996cb3f5f0530c144a5238e9.png

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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted

Evening all 🙂

The track seems to be settling on a straight run up the A30/A303 from Cornwall to London and I'm wondering if on 10am on Thursday the centre will be more or less over my head at 953 MB. 

I'm concerned about the S'ly gales preceding and the NW'ly gales following - I also have some concerns about water piling up in the Thames Estuary so I suspect the flood barrier will have to be raised.

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Kiwi Experienced

Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, stodge said:

Evening all 🙂

The track seems to be settling on a straight run up the A30/A303 from Cornwall to London and I'm wondering if on 10am on Thursday the centre will be more or less over my head at 953 MB. 

I'm concerned about the S'ly gales preceding and the NW'ly gales following - I also have some concerns about water piling up in the Thames Estuary so I suspect the flood barrier will have to be raised.

I suspect it'll still be stuck in traffic at Stonehenge!

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Kiwi Experienced

Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A 951 over me on here:

viewimagenc(2).thumb.png.d02597c1a5abcc9f67449cff10a4484c.png

running along the A 35 ??

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Amazing to hear on the MO deep dive that storm Ciaran will be the lowest pressure storm for November in England on record...the previous record 959 mb in 1916...

45-515UK.thumb.gif.ad2ddd3b68dcdc445f2c583797ca2e27.gif

...also that the fact that it is so incredibly far south...always associate these deep areas of LP being further north...

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bbtablet Apprentice

bbtablet

Posted
  • Location: Worlingworth, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: snow - I'm an 80 year old kid at heart!
  • Location: Worlingworth, Suffolk
Posted
37 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Poor dentist ,who did he offend 😂

 

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IanT Aficionado

IanT

Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
Posted

My (iPad) scrolling thumb says thank you for the workout….

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WillSussex Rookie

WillSussex

Posted
  • Location: Walberton, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and settled according to my mood and time of year!
  • Location: Walberton, West Sussex
Posted

Mine broke!

 

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Snowboy111 Enthusiast

Snowboy111

Posted
  • Location: Guernsey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, gales, snow, thunder and more snow
  • Location: Guernsey
Posted

😂😂 what on earth have you posted there!. Lifetime timetable 😂

 

shortened version 😂

Could contain:

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