Storm Ciarán

[Jo Farrow]

Ive hidden the long long list of Jersey warnings, seems like an error

[IanT]

6 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Ive hidden the long long list of Jersey warnings, seems like an error

My scrolling thumb thanks you too.

[Jo Farrow]

15 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

what on earth have you posted there!. Lifetime timetable

 

shortened version

Channel Islands  -All schools and colleges will close, islanders are being asked to stay at home. Only visit hospital if it is an emergency. No planned home births. All Gov Jersey sports facilities will close on Weds eve. Airport will close for commercial flights. Boat owners are being asked to secure their vessels securely. Also to buy responsibly, no hoarding.  

[Mapantz]

A possible drop of 35mb in 12 hours for here. 

My record for a 24 hour change in pressure is 35.6mb

[Crepuscular Ray]

48 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Channel Islands  -All schools and colleges will close, islanders are being asked to stay at home. Only visit hospital if it is an emergency. No planned home births. All Gov Jersey sports facilities will close on Weds eve. Airport will close for commercial flights. Boat owners are being asked to secure their vessels securely. Also to buy responsibly, no hoarding.  

Human nature being what it is, the last two words of that will prompt the few who haven’t already stockpiled necessities to head out and snap up the last few loo rolls. 

[stripeyfox]

Just now, Crepuscular Ray said:

Human nature being what it is, the last two words of that will prompt the few who haven’t already stockpiled necessities to head out and snap up the last few loo rolls. 

Exactly. I heard reports from Saint Peter Port, Guernsey that the supermarkets were already being hit hard by [some] people stockpiling.

 

[Fitzwis]

1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

Ive hidden the long long list of Jersey warnings, seems like an error

Apologies Jo. I'll edit any shared links in the future

 

Sobering ...

[Fitzwis]

1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:

what on earth have you posted there!. Lifetime timetable

 

shortened version

My bad 

[Downburst]

12 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Human nature being what it is, the last two words of that will prompt the few who haven’t already stockpiled necessities to head out and snap up the last few loo rolls. 

No, many places still have cohesive societies and Channel Islands is one place, very popular destination for that and other reasons.

[Marcus_surfer]

2 hours ago, bbtablet said:

 

Thanks for the laugh, i needed that

[bluebell]

33 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Exactly. I heard reports from Saint Peter Port, Guernsey that the supermarkets were already being hit hard by [some] people stockpiling.

 

Yes my friend who lives there reports panic buying , and M&S restricting purchase of 3 items only, she has plumped for gin, tonic and lemons!

[Daydream Boy]

I think the amber warnings will be dropped tomorrow and the yellow warnings will be scrapping the south coast. Maybe keep a yellow warning for the rain but that's it. I'm secretly disappointed here in Cornwall as was getting excited about it all. CI and Northern France now in the firing line. Signing off until the next storm that disappoints  

[Man With Beard]

Most trees are still in leaf here. How much will that increase the impact of wind on the trees? I always thought 60mph with leaves was something like as damaging as 75mph without leaves.

2 minutes ago, Daydream Boy said:

I think the amber warnings will be dropped tomorrow and the yellow warnings will be scrapping the south coast. Maybe keep a yellow warning for the rain but that's it. I'm secretly disappointed here in Cornwall as was getting excited about it all. CI and Northern France now in the firing line. Signing off until the next storm that disappoints  

You do realize there are still short range models pumping out 90mph plus for Cornwall?

[Snowboy111]

42 minutes ago, Downburst said:

No, many places still have cohesive societies and Channel Islands is one place, very popular destination for that and other reasons.

I can confirm supermarkets in both islands have empty shelves….. all because condor have said possibly no boats for a week. Yet it’s fresh stock they’re buying up such as milk which is readily available the next day as produced locally  . 

[ThundersnowDays]

This looks like the storm of a lifetime for the French side of the channel, 120mph gusts for Ouessant and 110 for Brest and the Breton coast - Channel Islands and Normandy are gonna get a walloping as well with lots of places above 100  looking rough with gales on the South Coast but hopefully dodging the worst! Still, worth watching as it seems to change slightly every run 

[SLEETY]

43 minutes ago, Daydream Boy said:

I think the amber warnings will be dropped tomorrow and the yellow warnings will be scrapping the south coast. Maybe keep a yellow warning for the rain but that's it. I'm secretly disappointed here in Cornwall as was getting excited about it all. CI and Northern France now in the firing line. Signing off until the next storm that disappoints  

Hasn't happened yet, too many people writing off the storm already. Happens all the time in here. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by SLEETY

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Thunders said:

you think any school will close in the costal south east.  tbh i just want to have a day off

If we are hit by 80mph winds I hope so, other wise the journey there and back isn't safe, and we are within walking distance, never mind others who need to travel further.

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, tight isobar said:

No matter your interpretations - the ec 12z is a nudge concerningly northwards - with a partial drop pivot b4 a wash e- Anglian exit! - now casting  from around 2pm tomorrow is the order of the day!! Edit: a tightening of ISO’s as ciaran exits and formats a back sting from the wash into the Home Counties is a distinct possibility… keep watching!!!

Tbh that's normal for here, strongest wind just as the winds turn north west, normally along a cold fron, fully expecting it, but I guess we'll see Thursday.

[Jordan S]

Wind gusts really do look truly exceptional for the Channel Islands tomorrow night with violent gusts to 90-110mph for a time, although south coast looks to miss the worst, 75-85mph in the far southwest of England and possibly 70-80mph in the far southeast of England especially on the exposed coast really is not something to overlook and will certainly cause some big problems and some significant damage to trees in particular with many being blown down and some damage to buildings particularly tiles coming off some roofs and damage to gutters.

Arpege..

Even with the most southerly tracking options such as UKV there still will be a swathe of very strong winds probably moving northeast inland over the rest of southwest England and definitely over some inland areas of central/southern England with gusts still likely to reach 50-55mph for a time though this not occurring until later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.. with 40-50mph tomorrow night before a lull then those stronger gusts move through later Thursday as the low moves away.

 

so could be local tree damage further north from the coast and disruption albeit far less severe than it could of been inland had the low of been modelled 100-150 miles further north. Probably about a 5-10% possibility of that kind of shift north in reality so very low though it still exists, with 90% that the extremely strong winds remain over the far southwest from a northwesterly direction and the far south and southeast close to and along the coast from a southerly direction tomorrow night ahead of the worst of the storm,then a southwesterly direction, with storm force or severe storm force mean winds over the channel and Channel Islands by then and possibly over mainland northwest France.
 

Historic wind storm for a few, problematic wind storm for others and soaking wet with flooding for some.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Jordan S

[Roger J Smith]

Low is 989 mbs now at around 47N 32W.

Will be interesting to see if 00z model run displays any trends. 

[Mizzle]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Low is 989 mbs now at around 47N 32W.

Will be interesting to see if 00z model run displays any trends. 

Can you point me in the direction of best place to view current status of developing lows/storms? 

[alexisj9]

Looked through quite a few models, consensus for now, is for the worst to be about 80mph between about 6am till 9am, southerly in the SE corner. Coastal. Haven't done in depth analysis for anywhere else. 

Doesn't mean this will be the outcome. More runs needed.

[Fen Wolf]

I saw this storm could bring 90mph gusts to the uk and channel islands, can anyone advise on safety precautions for a ship out in the channel please? 

[Mapantz]

Well, the UKV is certainly at loggerheads with the Met Office's thinking.. UKV gives 2 hours of 50mph gusts for here between 11pm today and 1am tomorrow.

The amber warning starts at 6am and the UKV shows, high 30's to low 40's.

Such disparities!

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Well, the UKV is certainly at loggerheads with the Met Office's thinking.. UKV gives 2 hours of 50mph gusts for here between 11pm today and 1am tomorrow.

The amber warning starts at 6am and the UKV shows, high 30's to low 40's.

Such disparities!

Looks like the low goes over you.