Storm Ciarán

[GSP]

53 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:

And now the UK Met Office shipping forecast for our sea area (Portland) and sea areas to our immediate South and West (namely Plymouth, Sole, Biscay and Fitzroy) has really upped the ante ...

I remember hearing a shipping forecast a number of years ago and for particular regions forecasted to have force 12 they issued the words exceptional and phenomenal seas.

Wonder on the next bulletin if these words are dusted down and used.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Thunders said:

this is some sort of joke right thunderstorms during this in the morning 

Nope, this thing is expected to have lots of convective rain wrapped up in it.

Edited November 1, 2023 by alexisj9

[lottiekent]

21 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Hi lottie.

Hard to know really how it will all pan out?

We are in the high risk areas,but with models all over the show with the exact track,the three options on the table seem equally as likely.

1, a run of the mill Gale.

2. Gusts to 60mph to 70mph ( a yearly event here)

3 or something that is the windiest for a couple of decades.

( the 87 option is not on the table imo.)

Hey SJ - I’m still on the fence about how bad it’ll  be. As we know, and as you say, a 60 to 70mph isn’t unusual for us here so that wouldn’t cause too many issues.

Cant remember what sort of speeds we experienced last year during Eunice but they ripped the roofs off the garages across from our house and snapped a few smaller trees.

[Thunderspotter]

3 minutes ago, Thunders said:

this is some sort of joke right thunderstorms during this in the morning 

yeah, completely get that. cant they just put sandbags under them or something to stop them lowing away. also must've been an expensive repair bill if it landed with some speed.

It's unlikely that it'll last that long - I've found BBC weather forecasts to be very inaccurate since they left the Met Office. 

[daveinSB]

It's quite staggering how much model divergence there still is at this point.

I'm never 100% sure whether we should give the high resolution, short range models more credence at this point. Intuition says yes?

[lottiekent]

Met Office has increased our max gusts again to 73mph now. 
 

Anyone think they’ll issue a red warning anywhere? 

[HurricaneSteve]

Not sure it's worth looking at the models now, this has moved into a Now-casting event

BBC Spotlight, is all about talking about the Storm

Last minute upgrade to Red Warning? i'm not sure, but widespread gusts even inland over 75mph tomorrow morning for Cornwall and parts of Devon

[Jo Farrow]

[weatherobsuk]

If I remember correctly, the reason the '87 storm took so many forecasters by surprise was that the models run were indecisive and only predicting a moderate low exiting the Bay of Biscay. Obviously technology has advanced since those times with near real-time data available but as we've recently seen with Hurricane Otis - the weather does what the weather wants.

[Wivenswold]

Interesting to see that my part of East Anglia has 3 peaks in the wind according to the UK met output. At 1am, 7am and 5pm. Each time up to about 55-60mph.  

[Fitzwis]

9 minutes ago, GSP said:

I remember hearing a shipping forecast a number of years ago and for particular regions forecasted to have force 12 they issued the words exceptional and phenomenal seas.

Wonder on the next bulletin if these words are dusted down and used.

I recall the use of those words too but can’t remember which storm it was for or when. But if my memory serves me correctly, they were used for shipping areas off the West coast of Scotland, namely Rockall and Bailey

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Mike Machin said:

I'm in Upham!  

Google maps says your Southampton 

[coldfingers1]

26 minutes ago, Islander said:

Well the rain is coming down now and wind has picked up dramatically, dreading a night’s sleep in this, think the morning will be carnage! 1987 all over again if not worse!

Just read your post. Gurnsey and Jersey were earlier shown on Ventusky weather charts to have winds gusting as high as 105 mph. That is easily in 87 storm weather! Stay safe and DO NOT go out whatever happens when the wind is screaming. Littlehampton has had 3 tornadoes hit it this year, one only last Saturday. Nothing to say there wont be enbeded tornadoes in this storm as far as I know.

[Fitzwis]

15 minutes ago, toggerobz said:

If I remember correctly, the reason the '87 storm took so many forecasters by surprise was that the models run were indecisive and only predicting a moderate low exiting the Bay of Biscay. Obviously technology has advanced since those times with near real-time data available but as we've recently seen with Hurricane Otis - the weather does what the weather wants.

Also, the number of ocean based weather stations was far less at the time so the limited data the Met Office had access to coupled with outdated forecasting models was a recipe for disaster. Soon after The Great Storm, the Met Office received funding to rectify these issues

Edited November 1, 2023 by Fitzwis

[minus10]

With synoptic charts like this for 7am and 10am tomorrow..

....i am surprised not more of south and east England is getting notably strong winds..how often do you find a 951 mb low just to the south of the wash as per gfs12z at 10am tomorrow?...i suppose it is the funnel effect of the strong winds through the channel and the angle/incidence of the winds over land...i remember many times in the past when lows not as deep passing over northern England/ southern Scotland produced 60 to 80 mph further south..admitadly they were usually westerlies...

[Gonzolio Martinez]

Wind speeds get tempered a lot in my neck of the woods usually - the last damaging storm I remember was 2002, which felled tress all around my home at the time and knocked the power out for 2 days.

Anything above 60mph would be pretty notable for my area, but I don't think I'll see it that bad

[GSP]

17 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:.  

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

With synoptic charts like this for 7am and 10am tomorrow..

....i am surprised not more of south and east England is getting notably strong winds..how often do you find a 951 mb low just to the south of the wash as per gfs12z at 10am tomorrow?...i suppose it is the funnel effect of the strong winds through the channel and the angle/incidence of the winds over land...i remember many times in the past when lows not as deep passing over northern England/ southern Scotland produced 60 to 80 mph further south..admitadly they were usually westerlies...

Our ears will go pop!

Edited November 1, 2023 by GSP

[Mapantz]

Pressure is on the slide now, and the wind direction is starting to move towards the southeast.

 

[Fitzwis]

9 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:

Just read your post. Gurnsey and Jersey were earlier shown on Ventusky weather charts to have winds gusting as high as 105 mph. That is easily in 87 storm weather! Stay safe and DO NOT go out whatever happens when the wind is screaming. Littlehampton has had 3 tornadoes hit it this year, one only last Saturday. Nothing to say there wont be enbeded tornadoes in this storm as far as I know.

The strongest gusts recorded in Jersey reached 96mph during The Great Storm of 87’ so Storm Ciaran could well surpass those values here

Edited November 1, 2023 by Fitzwis

[coldfingers1]

25 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Hey SJ - I’m still on the fence about how bad it’ll  be. As we know, and as you say, a 60 to 70mph isn’t unusual for us here so that wouldn’t cause too many issues.

Cant remember what sort of speeds we experienced last year during Eunice but they ripped the roofs off the garages across from our house and snapped a few smaller trees.

They are forecasting the wind to be gusting up to 89mph right on the seafront at Bognor Regis. And for some further weat hurricane force gusts. Dont underestimate how bad this coupl potentially get. After going through the 1987 storm in this same loacation my motto has always been Prepare for the worst and Hope for the best.

[WYorksWeather]

I remain very surprised that this hasn't triggered a red warning. I imagine must be due to the uncertainty, since it needs high likelihood and high impact on the Met Office warning matrix. There should probably be the option for a red warning for something like very high impact and moderate confidence, since a 50 mile jog north at short notice could bring significant damage to areas that are not expecting it.

As we've seen with Hurricane Otis recently, the global models can still get things wrong from time to time.

[sunnijim]

5 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:

They are forecasting the wind to be gusting up to 89mph right on the seafront at Bognor Regis. And for some further weat hurricane force gusts. Dont underestimate how bad this coupl potentially get. After going through the 1987 storm in this same loacation my motto has always been Prepare for the worst and Hope for the best.

Hi,who is forecasting this.?

The channel islands Sure.

***The Low is tracking too far South for that sort of wind field to effect the South.

***proviso here that a shunt North could see 80mph gusts effecting the SE coast.

All modeling this evening seems to suggest those 80mph + winds keeping just off shore.

Perhaps one model was hinting at the 80mph winds effecting coasts on its 12z run.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by sunnijim

[The PIT]

GFS has the strongest winds over France these clipping the SE with gusts around 70mph. Big differance from the UKV which has them further north and much stronger although this a later run than the GFS. For us it's a case of watch how much rain we got.

[Polar Maritime]

I think an Amber warning atm is fine given there actions described in the warning text. IF a red warning is issued there is time yet..

[pinball wizard]

52 minutes ago, Thunders said:

anyone know what this is 

Rain