Storm Ciarán

[Thunders]

Just now, CurtisOliver said:

Schools and councils in my area despite only having a yellow and predicted <50mph are tweeting updates. Normally I expect storms to be better off than predicted, but this time I have a eerie feeling.

same here , is it just an autistic thing to have this sort of feeling that somethings off, you do it anyways and it is correct. its like how cats have good sense of earthquakes 

[Spikey M]

4 minutes ago, toggerobz said:

If the MetO is going to issue Red for parts of the SW/South then between now and 9pm would be the right time, many people watch the soaps before heading to bed and skipping the morning news, so it would leverage just enough duration to get the warning out and give the morning commuters a 'heads up' to think twice.

Isn't this why they tested the mobile phone emergency alerts earlier this year?

I am assuming that's on the scrap heap as another screw-up from this government, but it could have been invaluable if the storm does take a more northerly track over night.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Spikey M

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

If this is truly the case,then a very unpalatable scenario is now possible as the Arpege was further North than nearly every model on the 12z suite.

Tamara had indicated on an earlier post that a sting jet was an impossibility with this system.

[Thunders]

Just now, Spikey M said:

Isn't this why they tested the mobile phone emergency alerts earlier this year?

I am assuming that's on the scrap heap as another chicken-up from this government, but it could have been invaluable if the storm does take a more northerly track over night.

didn't even work correctly in the first place

 

[CurtisOliver]

Just now, Thunders said:

same here , is it just an autistic thing to have this sort of feeling that somethings off, you do it anyways and it is correct. its like how cats have good sense of earthquakes 

Well I am autistic as well so maybe. Hopefully its not bad. But will plan my commute differently tomorrow just in case.

[WYorksWeather]

36 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

What happened with hurricane Otis?

Essentially a situation that has some parallels with the current one, though not exactly the same. In that case the track was as forecast, but most of the model output predicted a tropical storm, or at most a Cat 1 hurricane even at about 24 hours before landfall. Then, on final approach, the storm explosively intensified, producing a Category 5 (possibly top-end Category 4, still some uncertainty) at landfall. The damage was of course enormous, and people had relatively little warning. Dozens killed, billions of dollars of damage.

Of course, a storm of that magnitude is not possible over the UK, and it is a good thing that it isn't. But, it goes to show that even in this day and age there are still some weather features that are hard to predict.

[daniel barber]

1 minute ago, CurtisOliver said:

Schools and councils in my area despite only having a yellow and predicted <50mph are tweeting updates. Normally I expect storms to be better off than predicted, but this time I have a eerie feeling.

It's certainly got a different feeling maybe due to the upper ceiling potential along with uncertainty so close to the event. For essex it's still not looking to serious your average annual bad winter storm. However its the fact there's still that chance that it could be more. 

[CurtisOliver]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Tamara had indicated on an earlier post that a sting jet was an impossibility with this system.

Who's got it wrong in this case?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

36 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I'm trying to work out how you fit a kettle in a flask

That was my first thought

[Thunders]

Just now, CurtisOliver said:

Well I am autistic as well so maybe. Hopefully its not bad. But will plan my commute differently tomorrow just in case.

its just odd that all the autistic people i talk to also have the exact same thing.  i didn't do this with Eunice as i knew it wasn't going to be as bad as they said it was going to but now, i think they might be underestimating 

[Skullzrulerz]

15 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

If true that is worrying as Arpege was already more North than UKMO/ECM models

It could be a sting jet, not to necessary say that's further north then forvast

[Metwatch]

I'm seeing quite a few saying that might be a sting jet now i'm inclined to say it is one myself. A lot of dry air intrusion there is present.

[Thunders]

Just now, Metwatch said:

I'm seeing quite a few saying that might be a sting jet now i'm inclined to say it is one myself. A lot of dry air intrusion there is present.

if it is, this will be bad for us in the far SE?

[CurtisOliver]

It's the margin for error that's doing it for me. It's small. And the consequences aren't. The Met Office has much improved since 1987. But there are too many variables to get them all right.

[matt111]

Just had some very heavy rain from those showers ahead of the main area of rain, although looking at the radar it seems they're being swallowed by the rest of the rain now. The wind has increased a bit and the pressures started falling quickly. 

[Metwatch]

Just now, Thunders said:

if it is, this will be bad for us in the far SE?

More worrying for NW France and Channel islands rather than for you, but the SE is still going to get quite the beating, maybe just not as bad as the other side of the channel.

[coldfingers1]

Something that worries me most about this storm is that currently the wind is only gusting to Force 8 here but my roof  tiles are already rattling, as they do of course in every storm but never until the wind is gusting to force 10. The difference can only be the wind direction. we usually have a s/westerly wind in a storm. Currently we are in a Southerly flow which is also what it is supposed to be when the highest winds are due to hit. beenin this house 25 years and never lost a tile, I have a feeling this time it could be different.

[daniel barber]

Just now, Thunders said:

if it is, this will be bad for us in the far SE?

Don't really see how this could indicate its much worse than forecast, as well the models predict a sting jet anyway in a sense. Need to keep an eye on observations to make any rational prediction.  And more importantly track. That's what's going to decide impacts the most. We know there's gonna be 100mph plus winds in the channel. It's whether the storms track shunts them more north

[john mac1]

35 minutes ago, Islander said:

Already hit 55mph here, worst is not until 6am tomorrow - help!

Stay safe. Thinking of you guys 

[Had Worse]

https://www.youtube.com/live/xsD21zBb73o?si=-qmxBGDomPpWAbbH

[Willsy]

that’s a hell of a lot of dry air being pulled into the centre. definitely got sting jet potential on that 

[CurtisOliver]

Just now, Had Worse said:

https://www.youtube.com/live/xsD21zBb73o?si=-qmxBGDomPpWAbbH

That's some rough waves already

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, CurtisOliver said:

Who's got it wrong in this case?

I guess we'll know if there is a sting jet or not.

[WYorksWeather]

Current position according to Earth Nullschool. I've highlighted the centre at somewhere near 50N 9.5W. Next update will be at 11pm I think.

[CurtisOliver]