Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[matt111]

Not the best year for storms here but I did get a decent lightshow from a storm that passed not far from here on 17th September. Also managed a couple of daytime storms earlier in the year, not that they were anything special but they were the best it got. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Don’t know if anyone on here has seen this yet but the risk of Very strong winds and POTENTIAL tornado activity is well possible tomorrow. Many models suggest a small low pressure system bringing localised winds in excess of 70mph across the Central Midlands around 15z. Lightning wizard highlights localised Convective gusts around 80mph and shows strong SRH near the mesolow as it crosses the country. Curved Hodographs are also evident when looking at the Arome model. 

One thing I also noticed is the slight similarity to October 31st 2021 as the UKV chart looks quite similar. This Mesolow produced multiple tornadoes and strong winds across a localised central swath of England.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

8 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Don’t know if anyone on here has seen this yet but the risk of Very strong winds and POTENTIAL tornado activity is well possible tomorrow. Many models suggest a small low pressure system bringing localised winds in excess of 70mph across the Central Midlands around 15z. Lightning wizard highlights localised Convective gusts around 80mph and shows strong SRH near the mesolow as it crosses the country. Curved Hodographs are also evident when looking at the Arome model. 

One thing I also noticed is the slight similarity to October 31st 2021 as the UKV chart looks quite similar. This Mesolow produced multiple tornadoes and strong winds across a localised central swath of England.

The weather outlooks display of wind gusts has downgraded I'm only seeing low to mid 40s in the 3pm update.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Storm Henk has been named this morning.

[Robert1981]

6 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Storm Henk has been named this morning.

there is a thread for that storm.

[Chris Thomas]

HNY! Just thought I'd share a link for a chase from last Summer in Cambridgeshire. Wasn't expecting too much but captured some lovely cloud structure. 

Here's the link   - looking forward to those Summer storms!  

https://youtu.be/_JzFo180vH8?si=kbTjvpgbq63eLeON
 

 

[Robert1981]

4 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

HNY! Just thought I'd share a link for a chase from last Summer in Cambridgeshire. Wasn't expecting too much but captured some lovely cloud structure. 

Here's the link   - looking forward to those Summer storms!  

https://youtu.be/_JzFo180vH8?si=kbTjvpgbq63eLeON
 

 

Nice cloud structures I chase as well roll on summer

[Metwatch]

I don't usually make storm chasing videos / compilations as often the storms aren't the most "video worthy" around here, but I realised the other week I had enough footage from the mid June storms to make one. Some of my fav storms i've seen last June around here, give it a watch

[Robert1981]

12 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I don't usually make storm chasing videos / compilations as often the storms aren't the most "video worthy" around here, but I realised the other week I had enough footage from the mid June storms to make one. Some of my fav storms i've seen last June around here, give it a watch

Some great footage I love thunderstorms

[Rufus Butterfield]

I may as well jump on the train of video posting. This is just a compilation of storms from June and July, they’re all a bit tame apart from July 8th but my brother recorded it instead because I was away.

 

 

I’ve got some time from uni at the moment so I’m cooking up 2 more videos.

[Robert1981]

8 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

I may as well jump on the train of video posting. This is just a compilation of storms from June and July, they’re all a bit tame apart from July 8th but my brother recorded it instead because I was away.

 

 

I’ve got some time from uni at the moment so I’m cooking up 2 more videos.

Some nice footage

[Zak M]

Couldn't be more excited for convective season this year. I now have a car so I'm able to chase solo!

[Robert1981]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Couldn't be more excited for convective season this year. I now have a car so I'm able to chase solo!

It's great to have a car chasing storms season will soon be . 

[Supacell]

May aswell take this opportunity to plug my YouTube channel dedicated to storm chasing. A lot of videos on here taken from my past 9 years of storm chasing. I will have been chasing for 20 years this year with my first video being taken in August 2004. A time where I had no internet on the move and relied on interference on an AM radio to detect lightning . It's strange thinking back to those days and how much harder it was to chase storms.

https://youtube.com/@supacellstormchasing

I'm looking forward to April onwards. Hopefully will be getting lots more footage for my channel.

[Robert1981]

48 minutes ago, Supacell said:

May aswell take this opportunity to plug my YouTube channel dedicated to storm chasing. A lot of videos on here taken from my past 9 years of storm chasing. I will have been chasing for 20 years this year with my first video being taken in August 2004. A time where I had no internet on the move and relied on interference on an AM radio to detect lightning . It's strange thinking back to those days and how much harder it was to chase storms.

https://youtube.com/@supacellstormchasing

I'm looking forward to April onwards. Hopefully will be getting lots more footage for my channel.

I like your YouTube channel u have some great videos on there roll on April

[ChillyJuju]

On 31/12/2023 at 18:17, WeatherArc said:

Happy new year everyone Here's to 2024

 

Happy New Year to you too and thanks for posting this data.

According to that I was in the hotspot I never heard much, must have been asleep

Have had a quick look at Netwx & met.office apps for Easterly snow threats tomorrow and on both Apps it has High Storm risk, wasn't aware something was due! Maybe there is convection signalled for Thames streamer? Will go have a look at more reliable data

[ChillyJuju]

Ok, have taken a quick look at tomorrow and after viewing several different maps, I have settled for taking a few screenshots of the Storm Risk map. They encapsulate minimal effects as a whole.

These three screenies show the wind direction as the Risk travels from East to West across the south of the UK.

There are smatterings of showers showing throughout the day.

Therefore it is possible that streamers could set up in favourable places and looks to be where the weak signal is being seen

[WeatherArc]

Interesting to see the differences between two years. 2022 featured many more imports, developing in France then heading to the northeast while 2023 had less imports and more homegrown storms.

Not related to the UK but if anyone's interested in a detailed study of storms and how tornadoes are formed i would really recommend giving this vid of the May 24th 2011 tornado outbreak a watch, very interesting and Trey goes into detailed analysis on topics such as non-descending tornadogenesis and tornado mergers. 

His vid on the 2013 Moore EF5 is also very good

 

Edited January 10 by WeatherArc

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Is there any model that shows / confirms next weeks windy/ gusty weather the BBC is talking about? It's both on the BBC Weather videos and the BBC Weather forecast website?

Shows 60mph in London yet again a week on Tuesday to come overnight into the day on Wednesday. (22nd,23rd,24th).

Edited January 14 by WeatherWatchmanG

[CLH]

23 hours ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Is there any model that shows / confirms next weeks windy/ gusty weather the BBC is talking about? It's both on the BBC Weather videos and the BBC Weather forecast website?

Shows 60mph in London yet again a week on Tuesday to come overnight into the day on Wednesday. (22nd,23rd,24th).

Not sure about next week, but some discussion of this weekend

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012572

[Metwatch]

One of the best thunderclaps on the internet at the moment, could watch this on repeat all day!

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ (remember this is for Winter, lightning isn't a big risk but convective rainfall and tornadic potential are quite big risks with this)

The UK on the south side of a significant low with the stronger gusts should experience significant gusts potentially in excess of 80mph Sunday through Monday morning and further north the risk for severe wind gusts goes through Monday.

 

A couple models are even showing 95+ mph in Northern Scotland and occasionally hitting the Irish coasts. The UKV especially strong on this with 105mph in Northern Scotland and western Ireland. I find this unlikely just given the UKV's tendency to over strengthen the winds but it shows what's possible.

 

Most of the UK not just the coasts could well see 50+ mph wind gusts, yes the land based friction will have some effect but given how strong the low is, we'll still likely see severe level winds throughout the UK and Ireland. It's especially interesting to see the widespread 100 mph 850's on the south side of this low when it's over the UK to show you how strong this low is. Surface friction and the viscous layer is therefore an extremely important dynamic in just how strong this low can be at the surface here.

 

Thunderstorm potential wise and the cyclonic vorticity ejects out PV lobes towards the SE of the lows centre which we normally wouldn't be hit by as its rare for a low to be this well placed for us but Ireland gets the full strength of the PV lobes latching onto WAA which drives line based thunderstorm developed perhaps stretched more horizontally with shear stretched storms. The push of WAA means that there's a Theta-E drive that on the backend of is where the PV lobes generally are found through mostly Ireland and this is where the best thunderstorm potential potentially is but the high saturation weakens that.

 

Apart from that, general lightning risk throughout most of the UK and Ireland with the energy just generally around. Mostly sporadic though.

 

Tornadic risk is mostly with high LLS combining with 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE, mainly in Ireland and despite the crosswise stretched showers andor thunderstorms, the 3CAPE and vorticity crossover with any ejected PV lobes means that for the UK there's a fairly high tornadic parameter. The streamwsie vorticity would come from a broken line segment, so keep an eye out for those. So there's a genuine potential for a tornado within all the straight line winds but would probably need a less saturated area of shower formation to actually work. Also a small chance with some weak line convection Sunday night over parts of the midlands.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Just got clipped by this squall, really intense winds and torrential rain for a few minutes

[The Tall Weatherman]

An absolute beast to the North of York right now. Strong winds and frequent lightning in it.

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

An absolute beast to the North of York right now. Strong winds and frequent lightning in it.