Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Somerset girl]

7 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

February 7th birthday here, I hope you get what you want! I'm going away to Austria for my birthday so I should see decent snow but nothing is guarenteed.

A tad? You're optimistic!

I bet it is! Here in Kent we've barely seen a frosty morning for a year now, let alone snow.

Oh god, as an intermittent asthma sufferer I hope you get better soon! The post-viral cough is the worst! I've had both COVID and a deep chest infection this cold/flu season so far and it's not been so nice. I'm over the worst of it now but dear god I hope I don't get ill again this winter.

Indeed, let's hope this is an extraordinarily backended one and from mid-Janaury to March we get some proper cold spells with snow and all!

Thank you ,ill, be okay , just have to be a patient , patient . Not one of my strong points.

Yep , let's hope there's wi nter weather for all of us . 

[raz.org.rain]

Personally I'm hoping that any cold spells will be short lived and ideally only in January and February!

[CryoraptorA303]

10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Personally I'm hoping that any cold spells will be short lived and ideally only in January and February!

Nah, I want two weeks below zero and over a foot of snow in the south east!

[ChannelThunder]

6 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

I wonder how much of the average monthly totals for January has fallen in the first 4 days of the month?

Areas of the Midlands are already past 50%, according to a table on ITV News last night.

Looking at the upcoming blocking, it'd be ironic if after the first 4 days of Jan and the large totals, the rest of the month was entirely bone dry to the point where January came in under average!

Edited January 5 by ChannelThunder

[The Enforcer]

10 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Looking at the upcoming blocking, it'd be ironic if after the first 4 days of Jan and the large totals, the rest of the month was entirely bone dry to the point where January came in under average!

Somehow I doubt it. Dry forecast changed to outside chance of rain and sure enough it's raining again:

 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

3 hours ago, stewfox said:

No natural back ground factors ? 

We're all aware of global warming here thank you. Hence my sarcastic references to the let down being a "shocker" that noone could have predicted (I.e it was very predictably going to happen) Naybe the sacrasm didn't come over well. But my specific moan was the remarkable persistence of cloud and rain despite the high pressure and the inaccurate confidence of the forecasting for sunny spells.

 

Also I might add that considering how frigid Scandinavia is right now getting temps below freezing at night should not have been impossible despite background warmimg. It was over confidence in the synoptic patterns being shown 8 to 10 days in advance that sucked everyone in yet again that let us down. My main gripe is the lesson in ignoring anything past 96 hours which none of us seem to be able to learn. We're just addicted to FI eye candy. It's a toxic pastime.

Edited January 5 by Atleastitwillbemild

[ChannelThunder]

12 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Somehow I doubt it. Dry forecast changed to outside chance of rain and sure enough it's raining again:

 

I get the feeling we're on the cusp of another February 2023-style dry spell. I may be very wrong of course, but if I was a betting man I'd say that's it for the Atlantic fronts, barr decaying ones, for the next 3-4 weeks minimum.

Edited January 5 by ChannelThunder

[Froze were the Days]

What a dreadful Winter it's been to now, dull, rain (flooding) occasionally windy and continually mild.

Today maxed out at 7c which is near normal for the time of year, it's been the coldest day here since 7th December which says it all!...has to be the worst pre-Xmas, Xmas period to New Year and into the New Year weather I can remember in my life time. The last El-Nino Winter 2013-14 was also dreadful...

Lets hope for something drier and hopefully whiter as no mentionable snow has fallen in my back yard in a January since 2013.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I get the feeling we're on the cusp of another February 2023-style dry spell. I may be very wrong of course, but if I was a betting man I'd say that's it for the Atlantic fronts, barr decaying ones, for the next 3-4 weeks minimum.

hope so!

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What a dreadful Winter it's been to now, dull, rain (flooding) occasionally windy and continually mild.

Today maxed out at 7c which is near normal for the time of year, it's been the coldest day here since 7th December which says it all!...has to be the worst pre-Xmas, Xmas period to New Year and into the New Year weather I can remember in my life time. The last El-Nino Winter 2013-14 was also dreadful...

 

Last El Niño winter was 2015-16  not 13-14  

[raz.org.rain]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Last El Niño winter was 2015-16  not 13-14  

I think that was the infamous record mild winter here, December 2015 is notorious for it.

[ChannelThunder]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope so!

It can stay for a couple of weeks to let everything dry out, but then I'll start to miss my old mate The Atlantic

[CryoraptorA303]

31 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

The last El-Nino Winter 2013-14 was also dreadful...

2013/14 and 2014/15 were neutral winters. 2015/16 and 2018/19 are the two latest El Nino winters in recent memory.

[SollyOlly]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Personally I'm hoping that any cold spells will be short lived and ideally only in January and February!

That's ok, I'm hoping that any days at 25c+ are limited to a few days in July and August...!

One of us is going to get our wish. And it ain't me, sadly! 

[cheeky_monkey]

18 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

2013/14 and 2014/15 were neutral winters. 2015/16 and 2018/19 are the two latest El Nino winters in recent memory.

dont think 2018-19 was classed as an El Nino as there was never a 3 month period that met the threshold to be classed as one

[10 Days Away]

 in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, TN26 said:

 in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.

 

 

Dare I look? 'Poor' pub run? More runs needed??

[10 Days Away]

2 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Dare I look? 'Poor' pub run? More runs needed??

Good one actually! Snowmageddon at 240!! 

Prams and dummies by 10am tomorrow no doubt.

[stewfox]

9 minutes ago, TN26 said:

 in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.

 

 

Should I look ??

[10 Days Away]

Just now, stewfox said:

Should I look ??

Yes it's good. GFS is now a fantastic model again, apparently !

[Don]

10 minutes ago, TN26 said:

 in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.

 

 

It's not called the roller coaster for nothing you know! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

15 minutes ago, TN26 said:

 in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.

 

 

I'm ready to hand out more valium

[abruzzi spur]

I'm writing a thesis on confirmation bias and the model thread is the greatest source of material I have ever found.

[Don]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm ready to hand out more valium

I have beeeerrrrrr!!! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Polar low and channel lows to the rescue