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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted

The outlook to me next week is Atlantic driven especially later in the week..I cant see any heights developing,things look too active again..the gfs mean at 168 is nothing special..the main feature there is that fairly deep low!we need to get rid of that..although it could help with WAA couldn't it?

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at s

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week h

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
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Posted
1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:

What does this show please  as per lukeslucky bunch post? 

Crystal Palace's home kit

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Well clutching at straws maybe but the mean stays below the LT mean and a reasonable number of ens stay cold..

ens_image-2023-11-29T175748_076.thumb.png.505e7966ce673c3ccf6b4391b2464118.png

..op at top again...(and control)

Edited by minus10
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Dennis Accomplished

Dennis

Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What is this indicating dennis?

 

it shows that we see an NH blocking again in dec23

details to far from now but theres some ahead on winter 

image.thumb.png.dd2f2ad7404e01a398aafb82d8316b2c.png

image.png

Edited by Dennis
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted (edited)

Dont think this ecm run shall back gfs unfortunately!shortwave to northwest of uk ready to enggage the low in the atlantic and bring it further north towards us to shorten this cold spell even further!lets see....

Edited by sheikhy
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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted
10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV just has plain rain for most Sat night / Sunday morn 🥲

B85DF6ED-EE5C-4A81-9103-1DC250235ABC.jpeg

I suspect the track of this feature is going to keep varying considerably until T+0.

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The Enforcer Rising Star

The Enforcer

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
Posted
1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:

Does this indicate the cold will be harder to eradicate then Dennis? 

I misread that first time as "Does this indicate the cold will be harder to eradicate than Dennis?"!

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Slightly better heights around greenland this run..could it mean anything later on..we will see

image.thumb.png.b2d19b04faad1d22ff5a8b7a921759a4.png you would think sliding on that energy moving out from Newfoundland... got that look... I guess 120 will make me look a fool 🙂

its thinking about it at 120. slip / slide...

image.thumb.png.74aeb808b32a54599d3995c253f6056b.png

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

image.thumb.png.b2d19b04faad1d22ff5a8b7a921759a4.png you would think sliding on that energy moving out from Newfoundland... got that look... I guess 120 will make me look a fool 🙂

its thinking about it at 120. slip / slide...

image.thumb.png.74aeb808b32a54599d3995c253f6056b.png

I'm guessing rain from that low at 120..a little further south would be great!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T120 v 0z T132:

IMG_7828.thumb.png.13299a5d4d45f2768f0bcf4a453f8174.pngIMG_7827.thumb.png.9d1c0555bc93f8317ac6c65a94484fd9.png

Much better.  Mind you, the 0z run was from the bottom shelf!

Block putting up more of a fight, and heights actually higher over Scandi, we might need that later.

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted
10 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I suspect the track of this feature is going to keep varying considerably until T+0.

Yep, watch it by the hour, it may misbehave.

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