Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[bluearmy]

I just stumbled across the ec46 control run from yesterday 

best not to go into too much detail apart from the 46 day snowfall totals

[DIS1970]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

The age old saying here.

The crowd are on the pitch they think it's all over!

Wo wo wo...get them off the pitch this is far from over!!!!!

Classic battle ground set up in the making! Amazing set up considering where we are meant to be heading....its early but this is becoming a strange one...

 

.

 

Like the Wolves v Spurs game when a few walked out at the 89th minute!, you never know what is around the corner.

[Bricriu]

34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That could end up excruciatingly frustrating afterwards lol. 

That would be my fear. A case of close but no cigar. I hope I am wrong. Let's just say  the coldest upper air did some how make it all the way across to England, what would the uppers be after modification from  travelling over the warmer sea? Did -20 upper air clip the south east of England in Janaury 1987?

Edited November 30, 2023 by Bricriu

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I just stumbled across the ec46 control run from yesterday 

best not to go into too much detail apart from the 46 day snowfall totals

Imagine that happening , national disaster 57 inches would do me though ️

Edited November 30, 2023 by Ali1977

[LetItSnow!]

The Scandinavian signal seems to be back. One thing I would add is not to worry about uppers or whether the cold is intense enough etc etc, at such a long way out, even  if it turns out to be correct, there no way of having any clue over correct positioning of cold air etc etc. If this trend persists I may be inclined to think the Scandinavian high would win the battle. There is a signal for extreme and widespread cold gathering across Russia and at the same time a marked lack of cold (at least comparatively) across the USA - aka Atlantic may not be firing on all its cylinders and blocks and cold air to our east could be stronger than marginal events in recent times (say January 2021 and even that delivered in the north). 

Also, there can be repeated bites of the cherry in patterns like these before we get it right the first time. Often it can lead to intense battleground scenarios and a mild couple days or a week can be a precursor to cold. I’m thinking two big examples: January 1947 and January 1996. Both saw the block win the battle eventually. A feeble Atlantic though could perhaps speed the process up a little bit. This fact has been played to death but mid-January 1947 had temperatures in the mid teens Celsius. 

 

Perhaps word salad, but interesting things to take into consideration.

And yes, always the chance it could all collapse and go super mild on us. Can’t say I’m biased now.   

[Rain All Night]

ECM 12z (top left) T+240h frame versus the machine learning models. The Google model (GraphCast) offers the most support, but is not looking quite as good as ECM.

[phil nw.]

Looks like we are in for quite a ride in the coming days as the Atlantic tries to get in but finds a block of cold that is reluctant to give way.

Flicking through the runs over the last 24hrs for day 6 and the trend to keep the cold further south is quite apparent .This was modeled to be the switchover day but now there looks to be at least a delay.

Quite a skirmish going on next week as that Siberian block looks a major player in the medium term.A little correction further south in the next 24hrs and we could be looking at an extension to this cold spell.

[Bricriu]

I hope this ECM run isn't a huge outlier and that it  is backed by the GFS pub run later. If it is a lot of people will be scratching their heads wondering how the models came to show this.

[beefy201]

I do love model watching but after many years of doing so I’ve learned that Synoptics can and change at short notice don’t get hung up on every run

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine that happening , national disaster 57 inches would do me though ️

Cms 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Cms 

Oh, 57cm is clearly not enough

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 mean:

Hmmm…

[bluearmy]

Ec op in cluster 1 days 8/10 

[MattStoke]

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

The low at 72 hrs is quite a bit further south than this morning comparing the 12z with the 00z fax charts for Sunday...

That shows the feature once it’s clearing south east so hard to judge how it crosses the UK. It also shows it more developed as a front rather than just a trough on the 0z.

 

Ah ignore this. I misread it

Edited November 30, 2023 by MattStoke

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 mean:

Hmmm…

Is cold winning the battle or less cold to west  . Thank you.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 mean:

Hmmm…

Great support of the op, let’s see what the GFS throws out later !! 

[fromey]

In the 15 years I ve been on here I’ve never been so hooked, will it slide, won’t it slide, east a bit west a bit! All I can say to any newbie on here is sit back and enjoy the ride! 
this is the modern day Battle of Britain. 
thanks to all for your input, keep it up
 

[carinthian]

I am just wondering what that cold block over Scandinavia is affecting the current model outputs. Looks like Sweden is going to have its coldest November for a few decades past with early ice formation in the Gulf of Bothnia already present. Copenhagen recorded its coldest November Day for 100 years  earlier in the week. Cold pools reform quickly in Arctic Nordic Regions and tend to move SWly.  Could the British Isles end up ion the Battle Zone ? Who knows but could be special if that cold block to the NE remains and expands . The models seem to show its persistence. Whether it  dominants UK/ Euro weather over the coming weeks or even months time will tell as always.

C

[Dennis]

Good one NAM for things to come 

[bluearmy]

The macro momentum over the last day or so is for the Siberian/russian  high to expand sw towards europe 

how far it gets is the question 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T72-T96:

5 clusters, differing in the position of the low at T96, cluster 5 the southern most showing train of disrupting lows tracking SE.  Cluster 2 is the most northerly, with cluster 1 including the op, second.

T120-T168:

Here the choice seems to be either towards the Scandi high (cluster 1 including the op) or the train of SE’ly tracking lows.  No sign of +NAO.

T192-T240:

The op is now in the majority cluster (18 members) so they go with my option 2 from earlier (as did some of you!).  Interesting aside - the control is the representative member.  Cluster 4 also builds heights into Scandi, but too far east and we end up with westerlies, Cluster 2 is -NAO, potential to build into a more southerly track, maybe?  Cluster 3 is +NAO.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

In the 15 years I ve been on here I’ve never been so hooked, will it slide, won’t it slide, east a bit west a bit! All I can say to any newbie on here is sit back and enjoy the ride! 
this is the modern day Battle of Britain. 
thanks to all for your input, keep it up
 

 

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Good one NAM for things to come 

Can you explain this please I'd like to understand this fully ? Thanks

[Cold Winter Night]

Like I said I suspected, the EC control will be quite a sight to behold .
It slides us into deep winter. Later on it's alone in its severity though.

12z EPS De Bilt plume:

But the ensemble is definitely colder as a whole Day 10-15.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Cold Winter Night

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Mmmmm...mogreps 12z.

You can see that we look good for cold out too day 6...Take a little look and the clustering goes up towards milder conditions...but towards end of the run we seem to have a little support for a colder theme again..classic signs of the models not necessarily being convinced of it going milder,and more so of how long it will last.

The plot thickens.

Edited November 30, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Lukesluckybunch]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 mean:

Hmmm…

Cold into northern and eastern europe..sounds about right,we left in mild westerlies..a few tweeks though might be whole different story!