Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[LRD]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Call me sceptical,  actually best not someone else has that name, cant be doing with a law suit, but in relation to the Mets wording, arent the chances of a more prolonged cold spell always greater as we head into late December and Jan compared to early December?

Well, yeah, but I don't think they would say what they said on the strength of that. Might come to nothing but we'll see

[Allseasons-Si]

This isn't a done deal yet,...that block is fighting here big time.

ECM 192.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Ali1977]

Booooom - it’s all heading west ️️️

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Putting up a good fight that block to the east

12z 168 v's 00z 192.

Yeah, good point, can't argue with that when compared to the 0z.

Still think it will introduce warmer weather for us but it is important that lows track south of Scandi (if they get past the meridian) to retain the cold up there

[Ali1977]

Flick between 168 and 192, the high over Russia is clearly heading towards us - easterly by day 10 and it’ll be a good one

[sorepaw1]

My Great Grandad was a sheep farmer in the Swaledale area the Dale's Pennine area.

He used to say if the snow and ice sticks ,there's more snow and cold to come.

I wonder how much of that has buoyancy these days,  and he never had weather charts then.

If you showed him weather charts of today. He'd probably think it was some form of Witch craft

Or why do you need all that rubbish  

[Metwatch]

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Booooom - it’s all heading west ️️️

Low in the Atlantic looking like it wants to move SE too

[Ali1977]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Oh I’m liking that warnings coming you’d think 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Blimey.

Scenario 2 looks favourite this evening.

@Kasim Awan meto say 10 to 20 cm Pennines above 200m 

Day 9

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Oh I’m liking that warnings coming you’d think 

Yay!  30mm cold rain!

ECM T216 - easterly incoming on this run!

[Lukesluckybunch]

It all went north at 216..240 should be ok though actually I'm not sure winds could turn southerly..the high looks to be sagging a little

Edited December 1, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey.

Scenario 2 looks favourite this evening.

@Kasim Awan meto say 10 to 20 cm Pennines above 200m 

Day 9

Again a more favourable 12Z, 00Z's always seem to be much more progressive, be interesting to see tomorrow's OOZ

[Cold Winter Night]

Mildies better enjoy that "mild" weather next week while it lasts...

[marksp]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Booooom - it’s all heading west ️️️

wow, it definately is on this run, astonishing, fab watching it all unfold, and only 01 Dec, that cold 850s out East just wants to filter back across old Blighty, haha.

and as others have said the NH profile is just unreal for 1st day of winter.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey.

Scenario 2 looks favourite this evening.

@Kasim Awan meto say 10 to 20 cm Pennines above 200m 

Day 9

Looks possible 10-20cm indeed, maybe more, because the front is getting stuck with some elevation enhancement, blizzards/drifting above 300m asl. 

[Jackski4]

I’m calling it now the 00zs will leave us all wanting to cry come tomorrow, they always do. Just remember if they do that all is not lost 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Jackski4
Typo

[blizzard81]

NOWT WILL VENTURE BEYOND THE WALL! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten is interesting,...trough disrupts SE then a renewed push of heights west of the UK.

[Gowon]

37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM develops the shortwave near Iberia and has a more favourable upstream low positioning at T96 hrs .

Are we screwed without that shortwave, then?

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I’m calling it now the 00zs will leave us all wanting to cry come tomorrow, they always do. Just remember if they do that all is not lost 

Every time. Without fail 100%

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

Every time. Without fail 100%

And nobody has any clue why lol 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Day ten is interesting,...trough disrupts SE then a renewed push of heights west of the UK.

I'm liking the general set up..ideally would we want the high further south and west to influence our weather a bit more

Edited December 1, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[BarnetBlizzard]

1 hour ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

  

haha Yoda wants nothing more than a full blown Easterly! I'm definitely not saying an Easterly is likely but there are just some small signs that the Scandi high could have more influence on weather in around 8-10 days time then is shown on GFS OP/UKMO. 

ECM joining some GEFS members and ICON suggesting this isn't a done deal yet

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I'm liking the general set up..ideally would we want the high further south and west to influence our weather a bit more

More NW i would say but this is at day ten so we need the first trough to disrupt further SE from 144-168 to prop that high up in a better place.