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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

That is just Alien....

gfsnh-0-252(3).thumb.png.06ff32f07d10d1902f2eb24a9be92f68.png

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at s

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week h

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Cutting into the pole...

gfsnh-0-270.thumb.png.fa7c7f01cac10019a943822193e6a50d.pnggfsnh-12-270.thumb.png.13efa89d6ec68a28af7dd138f96f0920.png

more like this will put the tpv on the ropes,...great run.

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

What a chart for mid Dec at day 11, something special brewing I reckon!! Strat warning up too 

IMG_1684.png

IMG_1685.png

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

Not gonna lose any sleep over these, lost enough already, too far ahead.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted
59 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That will put huge pressure on the strat, incidentally, big reduction in zonal winds, and big increase in members going for SSW early Jan today:

IMG_7862.thumb.png.51c7a560edc191f7988f249cb36e365b.png

But we have to remember a ssw doesn’t always guarantee cold for our shores. But here is hoping it works in our favour. Fingers crossed 🤞 

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gaia rules Apprentice

gaia rules

Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Sub 961 depression anywhere nearby
  • Location: Reading
Posted

Good bit of eye candy ...to  watch that polar high develop ...pull south into russia, build and build and then be squeezed by the atlantic juggernaut

(remove the labels press animation rotate to polar view and sit back and enjoy!) 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=80.25&lon=79&ech=3&zoom=6&mode=1

 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
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Posted

Wow...thats one big block..

gfsnh-0-306(2).thumb.png.f37a814a48f2628f37b51823ffc365dc.png

gfsnh-12-300(3).thumb.png.13ea5954e1017099a80423f18bd79019.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Wow...thats one big block..

gfsnh-0-306(2).thumb.png.f37a814a48f2628f37b51823ffc365dc.png

gfsnh-12-300(3).thumb.png.13ea5954e1017099a80423f18bd79019.png

It is and it kills off the Atlantic train😁

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Control at 168😁

gensnh-0-1-168.thumb.png.9759662246266450980c8bc697198af0.png

@blizzard81,snap😜

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I 'just' beat you..... For once God damn it 😂😂😂

I was checking something else out at the time,...volcano's.😛

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I was checking something else out at the time,...volcano's.😛

Nah the Navgem I reckon 😂🤣

Edited by Mark wheeler
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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

I have never ever seen a 1064mb modeled on the charts ever , that has the potential to affect the UK.

I'm sure I'd remember something as monumental as that.

Long way off obviously. 

I posted 11 hours ago about a merge with high pressures,  but this is something else.

23121509_0118.gif

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a good day viewing the models 🥶🥶 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

That will put huge pressure on the strat, incidentally, big reduction in zonal winds, and big increase in members going for SSW early Jan today:

IMG_7862.thumb.png.51c7a560edc191f7988f249cb36e365b.png

An early Jan SSW would be optimal. Effects would coincide with the coldest week of winter statistically.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a good day viewing the models 🥶🥶 

Well that’s given it the kiss of death lol 😂🥶

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a good day viewing the models 🥶🥶 

You have jinxed it now😂

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I was checking something else out at the time,...volcano's.😛

 Knew there would be a reason 🙃🎄

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be a good day viewing the models 🥶🥶 

Yep we need to see more of this though in the morning. 

gensnh-0-1-180.png

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

Well.. Tamara’s roadblock is certainly appearing on a few models this evening.. 

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I know its the last frame but  we can only dream eh .

04861BCD-AADC-4BA2-93F0-9449DE244D4E.png

74612000-7F4A-4B42-BF62-FD10883DEF61.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

More undercut on the mean at 192 v's 12z at 204,bigger heights to our NE too.

gensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.4de0eeb19722cc7f070f3e05d8207ded.pnggensnh-31-1-204.thumb.png.8ab7b604b8ca65c09c82bb0b53088882.png

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