Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Day_9]

I asked chat GTP to do something on the next 2 weeks.  Here is the result:

 

Certainly! Let's delve deeper into the GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) models for a more nuanced analysis of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

**GFS Model:**
1. **Temperature Insights:**
   - GFS indicates a gradual cooling trend, particularly in northern and inland regions.
   - Watch for potential temperature fluctuations, especially in areas prone to cold air advection.

2. **Precipitation Patterns:**
   - GFS suggests scattered rain showers along coastal areas, with the possibility of inland regions experiencing a mix of rain and snow.
   - Keep an eye on short-term precipitation spikes, and note any rapid changes in the forecast.

3. **Wind Dynamics:**
   - GFS predicts variable wind directions with increasing speeds, especially in western and northern parts of the UK.
   - Wind chill effects may play a role in perceived temperatures; be prepared for these variations.

**ECMWF Model:**
1. **Temperature Trends:**
   - ECMWF aligns with GFS on the cooling trend, highlighting the potential for colder conditions in the coming days.
   - Pay attention to temperature anomalies to gauge the severity of the cooling trend.

2. **Precipitation Analysis:**
   - ECMWF emphasizes the likelihood of precipitation, with indications of both rain and snow in various regions.
   - Look out for any discrepancies between GFS and ECMWF precipitation forecasts for better accuracy.

3. **Pressure Systems:**
   - Both models hint at the dominance of high-pressure systems initially, contributing to stable conditions.
   - ECMWF, however, suggests a quicker transition to a low-pressure system, possibly influencing weather patterns sooner than GFS predicts.

**Conclusion:**
Combining insights from both GFS and ECMWF models, we anticipate a cooling trend with the potential for precipitation and variable wind patterns. Keep a close eye on temperature anomalies and pressure system dynamics for a more comprehensive understanding of the evolving weather scenario.

 

[Dennis]

GEM 

[That ECM]

Thankfully FI.

[Tim Bland]

GEM looks good at day 10…

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM looks good at day 10…

Yep, the ECM will follow that, then the chase will be on. Winters back in 10 days ️️ Positive vibes

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Thankfully FI.

Very few gefs members (maybe a couple)  on that particular page 

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Thankfully FI.

PV all of a sudden has got it's act together 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, the ECM will follow that, then the chase will be on. Winters back in 10 days ️️ Positive vibes

It’s very similar to the 00z ec op 

[Jacob]

What does Fl mean? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Gem is squeezing those Heights around Greenland with a low pressure to prop it up for good measure...plenty of stress being placed on the PV on the Siberian side for good measure..keep squeezing and eventually it could go Booooommmmmmm.

Who's ready for the next chase! Or are me and several others gonna keep the dream alive..come on folks its a team effort..how often do you see a team win when they're down to 8 men..

[andy989]

3 minutes ago, Jacob said:

What does Fl mean? 

Fantasy Island, meaning the chart is beyond the reliable time frame. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by andy989

[Purga]

Who's dreaming of a Bartlett Christmas? A pretty wretched chart - viewers are warned that the GFS 12z run may contain upsetting images.

[bluearmy]

Gfs strat splitting even earlier than the 06z run 

(but it doesn’t persist) 

Edited December 3, 2023 by bluearmy

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Jacob said:

What does Fl mean? 

Fantasy Island.. for anything past about 10 days.  Reduce to 5 if showing  

[sebastiaan1973]

We often hear/ read that Russian anticyclones are destructive for our winter chances, no cold available. in my opinion this is not true. It all depends what the synoptic setting is in the Western Atlantic. As. GEM240h shows.

[TSNWK]

24 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Thankfully FI.

Does this split then later in run? On phone can't see charts.. and if does that's a lot of vortex to go pop!

[Tim Bland]

Even ‘worst case”  scenario GFS ends like this ..

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Great posts from Matt & Tamara here as usual. I’ve been quiet on the teleconnections these last few days just letting things play out. 

The next WWB event is certainly catching my eye, perhaps the strongest & most sustained yet, should see a noticeable rise in overall GLAAM from this hopefully securing the ocean/atmospheric coupling more definitively than previous attempts. 
 

Yes - strong phase 7/8 progged by EPS also.

GWO now starting to climb back into Nino phases, 

supported by a solid rise in relative AAM

+EAMT starting to engage as a driver in this

courtesy of high pressure sweeping SE over the Tibetan Plateau. 

 

Teleconnective end result looks about as nailed on as it can be and given the speed of the MJO through the IO changes may occur at the early end of the “final third” envelope.

A SSW at the turn of the year on top?

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Catacol

[northwestsnow]

Paradoxically ,despite being one of the forums most ardent coldies  I'm actually quite relaxed about the upcoming Atlantic dirge fest,  perhaps the last week has satisfied me ( temporarily of course ).

Even if December goes Pete  tong the background drivers suggest the real wintrr goodies will come after new years.

[Singing in the Snow]

52 minutes ago, Purga said:

Who's dreaming of a Bartlett Christmas? A pretty wretched chart - viewers are warned that the GFS 12z run may contain upsetting images.

If I have nightmares... I'm blaming you

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Jacob said:

What does Fl mean? 

Fantasy Island. Too far ahead to be taken seriously!!

[Purga]

44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Even ‘worst case”  scenario GFS ends like this ..

A one or at best 2 day toppler then business as usual. Yawn

[feb1991blizzard]

31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - strong phase 7/8 progged by EPS also.

GWO now starting to climb back into Nino phases, 

supported by a solid rise in relative AAM

+EAMT starting to engage as a driver in this

courtesy of high pressure sweeping SE over the Tibetan Plateau. 

 

Teleconnective end result looks about as nailed on as it can be and given the speed of the MJO through the IO changes may occur at the early end of the “final third” envelope.

A SSW at the turn of the year on top?

 

Yes - its certainly looking 09 reduxish, you would be confident but there's just that nagging doubt something will scupper us.

[Windysun1]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Gem is squeezing those Heights around Greenland with a low pressure to prop it up for good measure...plenty of stress being placed on the PV on the Siberian side for good measure..keep squeezing and eventually it could go Booooommmmmmm.

Who's ready for the next chase! Or are me and several others gonna keep the dream alive..come on folks its a team effort..how often do you see a team win when they're down to 8 men..

Yep it cant sustain that pressure..it will go bang but where the pieces end up is the key. Surely this time on our doorstep!

[Day 10]

Cold fights back at day 7.