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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And….it’s dire!

Firm heights to the south, forget it, for Jan.

IMG_7949.thumb.png.3fa9a6e3b49bf17ccc4ba7ddafbcf1d0.png

Feb has an Atlantic ridge but nothing higher latitude.  SSW chances worse than climatology until mid-Feb.

Acc to Glosea El nino / eQbo combo is also useless for us ?

Hope it's wrong then !!

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sundog Seasoned

sundog

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Sure, that can't be right,  the tele connection gurus are offering a January to remember, all the teleconnections are lining up, no?

EQBO, Canadian Warming, el nine, favourable MJO.

 

 

The warm September curse can take them all on! 

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Acc to Glosea El nino / eQbo combo is also useless for us ?

Hope it's wrong then !!

If only it was that simple, a dire Glosea  chart  means we right off the whole of January! 

Thankfully only one small piece of the jigsaw,plenty of water to go under the bridge before then. I'm still expecting a decent cold spell around the turn of the year.

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Guest

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And….it’s dire!

Firm heights to the south, forget it, for Jan.

IMG_7949.thumb.png.3fa9a6e3b49bf17ccc4ba7ddafbcf1d0.png

Feb has an Atlantic ridge but nothing higher latitude.  SSW chances worse than climatology until mid-Feb.

Thanks for the update. Heights to the south seem to be entering the fray more and more. The chart above may allow for some brief northwesterly topplers but that's a good, strong signal for notable heights to the south and southwest.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Tbh id give it a week or so. Glosea updates obv fluctuate and hyperventilating isnt going to change that. Dry for a starter going forward 

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh id give it a week or so. Glosea updates obv fluctuate and hyperventilating isnt going to change that. Dry for a starter going forward 

The wedge of high pressure to the south west on latest glosea chart nudging up almost blocking atlantic, wouldnt take much of a nudge further north west on next chart release to be good.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Thanks for the update. Heights to the south seem to be entering the fray more and more. 

Indeed, weren't most of the seasonal forecasts prior to this showing negative European heights though?

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CoventryWeather Seasoned

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted
19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And….it’s dire!

Firm heights to the south, forget it, for Jan.

IMG_7949.thumb.png.3fa9a6e3b49bf17ccc4ba7ddafbcf1d0.png

Feb has an Atlantic ridge but nothing higher latitude.  SSW chances worse than climatology until mid-Feb.

But can we really trust them? December looked to be extremely westerly - hasn't really been the case has it? Blocking has been stubborn especially early on, and the likelihood of a cold spell later on this month, seems like the long range models haven't been brilliant. 

GFS and icon on the same sheet, albeit the icon will retrogress slightly later on. No changes on the earlier models as far as I can see, everything seems to be going to plan. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

The UK wallows in anomalously warm air, just prior to the "Christmas big freeze" :ball-santa-emoji:

gfsnh-15-186.png?12

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Not the worst 204h chart I ever saw

GFSOPEU12_204_1.png

But will our uk high migrate up into that gap over Greenland…..

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

But will our uk high migrate up into that gap over Greenland…..

Guaranteed cold from 192. :ball-santa-emoji:

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But will our uk high migrate up into that gap over Greenland…..

The hights are rising northern Canada so a possibility

GFSOPNH12_186_1.pngGFSOPNH12_216_1.png

Edited by Harsh Climate
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The UK wallows in anomalously warm air, just prior to the "Christmas big freeze" :ball-santa-emoji:

gfsnh-15-186.png?12

We will see a further zillion versions of this before xmas, never take them seriously 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And….it’s dire!

Firm heights to the south, forget it, for Jan.

IMG_7949.thumb.png.3fa9a6e3b49bf17ccc4ba7ddafbcf1d0.png

Feb has an Atlantic ridge but nothing higher latitude.  SSW chances worse than climatology until mid-Feb.

Doesn't mean it's correct though.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

But can we really trust them? December looked to be extremely westerly - hasn't really been the case has it? Blocking has been stubborn especially early on, and the likelihood of a cold spell later on this month, seems like the long range models haven't been brilliant. 

GFS and icon on the same sheet, albeit the icon will retrogress slightly later on. No changes on the earlier models as far as I can see, everything seems to be going to plan. 

I don't and I think they are given far too much credit. If the models can't do well at T240 then why should they be any good for this range during January?

I bet if we ended up with a block towards the New Year period then the January forecast would flip to something much different.

I don't get emotionally hung up on these things.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted (edited)

Oh yes 😍😍😍🥶🥶🥶 only day 9 too 

IMG_1738.png
 

Chart of the week 

IMG_1739.png

Edited by Ali1977
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.5265edb9ddc5e23e1f3fe3b232ebf65c.png

A perfectly reasonable outcome, once HP gets over us and result is possible

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