Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

We need heights over Greenland!! This pattern won't sustain otherwise..

An alright chart, but not quite good enough

This is a beautiful synoptic to be in…

 

Often we get cold but no precipitation. With this you get high risk but a potential high pay out. Just enough forcing to allow systems to head SE enough that it interacts with cold advection from the main cold trough.

[Battleground Snow]

A bit brisk on the gem!

Looking very good for the north

[Mucka]

UKMO pretty much on board, certainly no ECM 12z

[Cheshire Freeze]

Mayday mayday, the tpv sending distress signals

Looking even less healthy up top too

[January Snowstorm]

The seas were very warm out West and this is our first cold Northwesterly of the season. Imo no way will it end up cold enough, minus 4s ain't good enough apart from mountain snow. The gem like gfs has a problem sustaining the pattern to Christmas. The trough looks like filling over us and the cold getting mixed out

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The seas were very warm out West and this is our first cold Northwesterly of the season. Imo no way will it end up cold enough, minus 4s ain't good enough apart from mountain snow. The gem like gfs has a problem sustaining the pattern to Christmas. The trough looks like filling over us and the cold getting mixed out

The point is we were staring down the barrel of an entrenched Euro HP a couple of days ago (if we took the modelling at face value)…which never ever looked plausible at all.

[Dennis]

GEM just before Xmas 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

GEM just before Xmas 

 

That would certainly be rough here, exposed to that NW’ly. Can only imagine the wind chill.

[Mucka]

Some GFS ensembles blow up the low I talked about last night a la ECM 12z and the mean trough is a little further W so maybe ECM won't back down this morning.

We could do with mean trough position edging E not W in the ensembles though.

If we can get some kind of consensus on this evenings runs for 168 having the trough digging down through the UK and N Europe/Scandinavia then we should at least good for some wintriness in the run up to Xmas.

00z mean V 18z mean

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Mucka

[KTtom]

28 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The point is we were staring down the barrel of an entrenched Euro HP a couple of days ago (if we took the modelling at face value)…which never ever looked plausible at all.

According to last nights ECM we still are! 

[nick sussex]

Looking very unsettled in the run up to Christmas .

I think a se correction is needed though and shortwaves near Iceland won’t be picked up this far out .

In terms of wintry potential still too far out to be sure of as the GFS does have a cold bias in this type of set up .

I give the GFS 6/10 .

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looking very unsettled in the run up to Christmas .

I think a se correction is needed though and shortwaves near Iceland won’t be picked up this far out .

In terms of wintry potential still too far out to be sure of as the GFS does have a cold bias in this type of set up .

I give the GFS 6/10 .

Agree with your first line. Cool/cold rain-sleet-snow. Strength of wind/direction etc is going to be awhile before we know. Run to run imby posts will be many. 
 

it’s not going to be a boring run up for sure. 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The point is we were staring down the barrel of an entrenched Euro HP a couple of days ago (if we took the modelling at face value)…which never ever looked plausible at all.

Said many times that I was unconvinced by the modelling post the ridge. But there was a period where the ridge was a bit uncertain and then the nwp fairly quickly firmed  up on it.  Then post ridge then became uncertain and now we see the modelling firming up on the movement of the tpv from Canada towards n scandi with associated deep nw euro trough.  Now we become uncertain on what follows this trough.  usually we would have a handle on later week 2 and feel that it made sense. for pretty much all of December this hasn’t been true.  
the past three gfs ops have downwelled the weaker strat flow into to the lower strat and trop and the NH profile looks more wintry moving forwards for the mid lats as a consequence- then it becomes about how the dice fall 

[That ECM]

T168. Can’t work that out let alone T240. Some will be looking at the output as if being at front of a queue of a buffet and seeing smoked salmon and beautiful ice carvings and others will view as being last and seeing a curled up cheese sandwich. location etc will determine where in the queue you feel you are.
 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by That ECM

[TSNWK]

Ecm still not joining the party.. how very frustrating.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ecm still not joining the party.. how very frustrating.

It’s waking up but still needs a couple more espressos.

Edited December 13, 2023 by That ECM

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s waking up.

And pressing snooze      

[Ali1977]

By Xmas day some places would be getting snow under this. High ground up north would be getting hammered!!  This is 23rd , by 25th the flow would be more NW and slightly colder I guess 

[bluearmy]

Ec sticks with continuity of sorts - at least if it’s wrong then it’s consistently wrong.  Just looks slower and less agitated than the gfs and gem 

Less sign that the tpv is going to become quite fractured beyond day 10 but that could just be timing. 
 

 

[Dennis]

im not sad on EC 240 

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im not sad on EC 240 

Look surprised when you open it.

[Vikos]

On the other side of the pond…

[mountain shadow]

18 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im not sad on EC 240 

Where in Norway do you live Dennis?

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Where in Norway do you live Dennis?

 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

On the other side of the pond…

Can’t help feeling that the situation in the USA is massively important if we are to see the current evolution upgrade into an epic cold spell over here (I’m not talking about the Christmas timescale here).  So I hope there is record warm across the pond!