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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at s

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week h

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Well that’d certainly be a red wind warning, probably the largest ever issued

image.thumb.png.83a81fd8368b08126e26d7ea3506add9.png

Mad Friday. 🍺🚫 That’ll stop a few going out. 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

General agreement on the pattern .

So a shortwave develops over Florida runs ne then this phases with vorticity heading south out of Canada .

A breakaway shortwave then runs into Greenland and heads se on the eastern flank of the Atlantic high, this phases with low heights to the north causing this to deepen and then tracks into the North Sea .

What the UK ends up with then is determined by how much dig south and east of the eventual UK troughing .

And how amplified the upstream pattern is at that stage .

After any initial colder flow some Atlantic energy will then move east . 

Where that goes as in more se or more ne will determine whether the cold hangs on .

There doesn’t look to be a lot of energy upstream at this point . Neither the GFS or GEM have some angry looking low so this is where the likely intrigue might play out ! 

Anyway the ECM coming out now so let’s see what that has to offer .

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

One more from me- be wary of assuming a return of Euro heights in FI. We’ll likely see this signal muted as we tick down towards the Christmas-New Year period.

I see nothing to suggest we’ll see any form of sustained Euro heights going forward.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
18 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

One more from me- be wary of assuming a return of Euro heights in FI. We’ll likely see this signal muted as we tick down towards the Christmas-New Year period.

I see nothing to suggest we’ll see any form of sustained Euro heights going forward.

That would be good…. Be nice to have the next cold being lined up if have to endure mildness between Christmas and new year..as is currently progged

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Well this looks like a flush down, and with the delay in mind…

spacer.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Vikos said:

Well this looks like a flush down, and with the delay in mind…

spacer.png

Exactly what I was thinking sir, hence my post earlier about the general pattern going forward of troughing down into Europe via Scandi.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

ECM ok at 192 but certainly not as brutal as the GFS!! And is that it or can it relax for Xmas 

IMG_1795.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM looking good here at 192..but could be quick blast of cold.doesn't look great upstream

That’s a shame. Would have been nice to have a cold Christmas Day and week….

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

The low to the southwest of iceland..could give us another cold shot at day 10..as the low passes through..watch that one

Will do… as ecm is underwhelming…. 
 

don’t think I’m feeling this cold blast.. even on gfs the synoptic pattern flatter to decieve with 2/3 day stormy cold cyclonic weather snow for some of the slushy vsriety and then it’s all flushed away by Christmas.. ecm does not even give us thst….

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The ECM wants to take more shortwave energy around the high at day 8 .

This then suppresses the Atlantic high and edges the cold east .

The latter stages are quite different from last night and so for the time being I’d be wary of it .

Its hardly covered itself in glory over the last few weeks .

 

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