Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[phil nw.]

46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They are the same clusters Phil - just zoomed in but I guess they do give us a view at 12 hr intervals to day 10.  And I assume we can also see days 12 and 14 which the ec website doesnt show 

Oh yes I realise that Nick just find them easier to view

Edited December 16, 2023 by phil nw.

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

It comes out of California, so its almost guaranteed to be useless...

As Mr Wheeler might say .. 

although it did get the last cold spell correct,,,, unlike some of the more followed models.

MIA

Edited December 16, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[bluearmy]

Ec control is probably a little better at day 6

a slightly stronger anomoly over Newfoundland and the scandi trough backed a little further sw 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec control is probably a little better at day 6

a slightly stronger anomoly over Newfoundland and the scandi trough backed a little further sw 

Slowly! Slowly Catchy ! 

[captaincroc]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Outrageous

 

 

This for me is the snow dream. I've always wanted to experience a proper blizzard in my town, yeah we have had strong winds but always wanted to see what it would be like with below zero temps, heavy snow and strong winds.  I have always suspected the only true way would be something that spun down from the north with uber cold air attached.

I know some people have experienced blizzards with sliders etc but in Crewe we are in the rain shadow as the winds are normally South Easterly in those set ups.  This scenario above would truly bring a Christmas blizzard.

Edited December 16, 2023 by captaincroc

[Kasim Awan]

JMA being very consistent.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

JMA being very consistent.

That would do it mate  

[Dan B]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

JMA being very consistent.

 

Which means what; in layman's terms to us uneducated?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dan B said:

 

Which means what; in layman's terms to us uneducated?

It looks very cold and slack..

[James Maidstone]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Carinthian..

 Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline.

Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century.

It has become known as the North Sea disaster.

That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland.

Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be  a Christmas wrecker. 

I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow)  and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and  with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries.

A few links which may be of interest below -

 Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 

The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. 

I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities.

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient.

In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. 

MIA

Tides in the 5-7 day range aren't spring but neither are they neap either

[BartyHater]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

JMA being very consistent.

Consistently wrong I’d venture, but we can live in hope

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Dan B said:

 

Which means what; in layman's terms to us uneducated?

The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) computer model is being very consistent with each run at producing good synoptics for a cold Christmas. As opposed to the European (ECMWF) model which suggests milder conditions. The JMA is less reputable model however it does add some weight to the cold solution which is also supported by the GFS/GEM weather models.

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) computer model is being very consistent with each run at producing good synoptics for a cold Christmas. As opposed to the European (ECMWF) model which suggests milder conditions. The JMA is less reputable model however it does add some weight to the cold solution which is also supported by the GFS/GEM weather models.

Nice to see a model show cold but the JMA has zero credibility for our shores. Also GEM not that great either, but does produce some stellar runs for cold time to time, nice to see but can't be taken seriously.  

[Rob 79812010]

34 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

 

This for me is the snow dream. I've always wanted to experience a proper blizzard in my town, yeah we have had strong winds but always wanted to see what it would be like with below zero temps, heavy snow and strong winds.  I have always suspected the only true way would be something that spun down from the north with uber cold air attached.

I know some people have experienced blizzards with sliders etc but in Crewe we are in the rain shadow as the winds are normally South Easterly in those set ups.  This scenario above would truly bring a Christmas blizzard.

You're right but they are rare I think. 2010 last one I recall. Easterly snow even rare for side of pennines. Think there was a good one 95 but don't know how far west it went. Manc had 6 inches, similar to 2010. We're just in wrong part of UK

[Kasim Awan]

This really is the ICON/ECM against the GFS, GEM, UKMO, JMA, NASA/GEOS5 and NAVGEM.

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Consistently wrong I’d venture, but we can live in hope

Love seeing some runs GEM and JMA throw out, but they very rarely verify as you say.

[Rob 79812010]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

You're right but they are rare I think. 2010 last one I recall. Easterly snow even rare for side of pennines. Think there was a good one 95 but don't know how far west it went. Manc had 6 inches, similar to 2010. We're just in wrong part of UK

Meant the systems moving down from North are rare. Usually polar lows from Arctic which aren't good for us

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Nice to see a model show cold but the JMA has zero credibility for our shores. Also GEM not that great either, but does produce some stellar runs for cold time to time, nice to see but can't be taken seriously.  

I wouldn't say zero credibility, need to see the verification stats though. I'd say we're at 5050 point here.

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

This really is the ICON/ECM against the GFS, GEM, UKMO, JMA, NASA/GEOS5 and NAVGEM.

If gfs and ukmo can sing off the same hymn sheet come 5pm, would set up a massive ECM later.. If we get all 3 onboard I will start to take note, maybe get excited lol.

[BartyHater]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

This really is the ICON/ECM against the GFS, GEM, UKMO, JMA, NASA/GEOS5 and NAVGEM.

Yeah, but that’s a bit like saying it’s The Saturdays v Fury and Usyk

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

This really is the ICON/ECM against the GFS, GEM, UKMO, JMA, NASA/GEOS5 and NAVGEM.

looking at Cheshire Gap flow from 24th to 26th, in 2004 it was on perfect angle for here NW'ly on 25 Dec, if winds WNW'ly then pasting in SK4, NNW in Telford/Shrops, 

[claret047]

It is good to be back. My PC had a 400 error message that prevented me gaining access to this site and it was like having my arm chopped off

I am now just playing catch-up to see what I have missed over the past few days. When I last was able to visit the site there was great excitement about some brutal weather in the early reaches of FI. Looking at some of the more recent posts I am not sure if this is still the case. Am i correct in this assumption?

[AdrianHull]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Nice to see a model show cold but the JMA has zero credibility for our shores. Also GEM not that great either, but does produce some stellar runs for cold time to time, nice to see but can't be taken seriously.  

I would agree if the JMA was out on its own but it's not. It's reading from the same book as most of the models bar ECM and ICON.

Edited December 16, 2023 by AdrianHull

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It looks very cold and slack..

It's funny have we are naturally looking for those tight isobars with the wind perfectly aligned off the sea for an IMBY location, but that often goes wrong. These slack flows tend to be very cold and snowfalls/features always seem to pop up out the blue!

Edited December 16, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[claret047]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Carinthian..

 Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline.

Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century.

It has become known as the North Sea disaster.

That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland.

Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be  a Christmas wrecker. 

I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow)  and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and  with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries.

A few links which may be of interest below -

 Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 

The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. 

I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities.

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient.

In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. 

MIA

Hello Dave. I am from Essex and am old enough just to remember the occasion. I have a book at home entitled the Great Tide by Hilda Grieve and is a very interesting read on how the aftermath of the flood was handled before the days of mobile phones and the landlines were out of operation. I had the pleasure of meeting Hilda a few times as we both worked for Essex County Council and she popped into my office to see one of our architects to whom she was a personal friend. If the book is still in print I thoroughly recommend it.