Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[northwestsnow]

EC46 still toasty in the strat

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 has average to above average temps for the whole 6 weeks

Don't know how much weighting I'd give to it though it rarely predicts - temp anomalies

very little on temps at more than a week or so 

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

very little on temps at more than a week or so 

 

I'll go with neutral as in the game then .

Early Jan

[northwestsnow]

EC46 sees a MAR until the 26th 

then Atlantic takes over..

Edited December 17, 2023 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Looks like we will see a weaker than average SPV for the foreseeable

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 sees a MAR until the 22nd 

then Atlantic takes over..

That’s a displaced Azores ridge  (and we don’t need the ec 46 to tell us what’s happening this week ) 

Not sure that chart tells us much about January 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That’s a displaced Azores ridge  (and we don’t need the ec 46 to tell us what’s happening this week ) 

Not sure that chart tells us much about January 

Was hoping we'd see a slither of Green on the 24th

Doesn't look great right now but I'm a bit more perplexed by the MOGREPS graph suggesting PM air in the ascendancy over Xmas.. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Was hoping we'd see a slither of Green on the 24th

Doesn't look great right now but I'm a bit more perplexed by the MOGREPS graph suggesting PM air in the ascendancy over Xmas.. 

MOGREPS-G chart

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

MOGREPS-G numerical weather prediction model

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s a displaced Azores ridge  (and we don’t need the ec 46 to tell us what’s happening this week ) 

Not sure that chart tells us much about January 

Those charts change so often I really don’t pay much attention to them. Sometimes a dominating pattern isn’t picked up fully until fairly short lead times.

The only thing we can say is that a +NAO isn’t heavily favoured into January at this current point in time.

[Summer8906]

GFS 00z and 12z at least show something of a WNW-ly later this week and into the Christmas period, which might make it relatively bright and not excessively wet in the south and southwest.

More worrying is what happens around Boxing Day when a cyclonic SW-ly comes in, which keeps going into the new year. This does seem to be a singularity: of all the winter, the period from around Christmas to about Jan 20th always seems to deliver the most unpleasant conditions (a combination of mild/dull/wet). A shame as end of Dec, and all of Jan, is arguably the time when we want snowy weather.

On both those model runs (GFS 00z and 12z) it looks like New Year's Eve and Day will both be mild with limited sunshine and with a fair chance of rain, depending on exactly where fronts are. Again; the chances of mild/dull/wet Atlantic conditions on New Year's Eve seems very high. The year rarely goes out on a good note: in recent years we've had 2020 finish on a cold/settled note but before that, we have to go back to 2010.

I'm just glad I'm getting out of the UK for around three weeks shortly after Christmas Day. There seems to be little to hang around for. Let's hope the 2nd half of winter is decent!

Edited December 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[JoeShmoe]

30 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The only thing we can say is that a +NAO isn’t heavily favoured into January at this current point in time.

Care to explain the reasoning behind this statement? 

[weathercold]

34 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Those charts change so often I really don’t pay much attention to them. Sometimes a dominating pattern isn’t picked up fully until fairly short lead times.

The only thing we can say is that a +NAO isn’t heavily favoured into January at this current point in time.

Can’t be discounted imo, one thing we can say is that cold /snow, high lat blocking is off the menu for some considerable time.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Can’t be discounted imo, one thing we can say is that cold /snow, high lat blocking is off the menu for some considerable time.

Never say never

I agree with everything you wrote but I'm often reminded the weather can make fools of us all..

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Wish @summer blizzardwas here as he is probably better at explaining the hovmoller charts than us two and I feel great that I am active here again after what I call myself my own hibernation period.    

There are certainly some interesting times ahead and I perceive it as exciting really.   It does look potentially like a west based negative NAO set up currently coming up.    

Still here. 

Tamara knows more than I and summed up the pattern earlier but essentially my take is that tropical convection is in/moving into a position conducive to blocking to our north east and then north west but bar a poor looking northerly attempt it looks like the tropospheric zonal flow is too strong. 

We've missed the boat on this tropical cycle I think however it does look like there might be less tropospheric zonal flow and a conducive tropical pattern towards mid January. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by summer blizzard

[Kasim Awan]

There does seem to be a slight slowdown in the zonal flow which should lead to development of more amplified zonal waves and as a result more cold being pushed into mid latitudes. This starting in a few days and could last a few weeks. What this means for the UK specifically is uncertain.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Care to explain the reasoning behind this statement? 

Yeah, it literally shows it in the chart that BA posted.

I was just describing the EC46 not giving my own thoughts

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Can’t be discounted imo, one thing we can say is that cold /snow, high lat blocking is off the menu for some considerable time.

We can’t say that.

We can’t say that because at the moment we’re in unusual territory where the strat vortex is being well displaced from it’s usual territory. On top of that we’ve got weather models that can’t even resolve the MJO properly.

With the strat so weak, literally one bit of amplification in the right place at the right time could lock us into cold.

This isn’t the usual winter scenario where we’ve got a strong strat coupled to the trop with endless strong westerlies above…

Edited December 17, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[Kasim Awan]

GFS18Z is stuck on 84hours.

[CoventryWeather]

Clusters look better this evening, but cluster one at 192-240hrs really catches my eye.

It kind of links to what many were originally thinking, perhaps an extension for the cold towards new year. This cluster has a ridge near Greenland (nothing overly strong), but perhaps it could make lows south-tracking again and a few background events. Could the models be over-estimating the strength of the Atlantic? Maybe something like this could cause a SSW or lock into a prolonged period of cold....latest Met office long range mentioned something like this mid Jan, so interesting...

[Kasim Awan]

GFS18Z not great at 132H.

[CoventryWeather]

Yeah, GFS is a big move to the ECM. Good thing the ICON 18z was much better at 120 and seemed more towards meto. Still plenty up in the air at the minute. Not surprised to see the GFS flip though. 

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Troubleatmill said:

Forgetting the Xmas weather for a moment, this ECM chart with split HG TPV has my eyes lighting up!

Yup, the EC 12z is better then this mornings awful output even if that particular frame is showing temps on the mild side.

Seems to be the theme recently, awful 00z's and 12z's that give us a slither of hope. The EC is not so aggressive with the Iberian heights either. Lets hope that we don't come back down with a bump tomorrow morning.

EC however still looks tenative with the cold near christmas, sorry just catching up on the output. The 18z GFS also doesn't look encouraging, so still the Iberian high poses a risk.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Derecho

[northwestsnow]

Cluster 1 looks like ukmo 12z to me..

I give up

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Yeah, GFS is a big move to the ECM. Good thing the ICON 18z was much better at 120 and seemed more towards meto. Still plenty up in the air at the minute. Not surprised to see the GFS flip though. 

I thought the 18z Icon was a considerable downgrade by 120hrs. Not a good trend this evening. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Cluster 1 looks like ukmo 12z to me..

I give up

Cluster 1 of what? UKMO was good?