Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Dan B]

For those in the know; can the recent volcanic eruptions cause any changes in our weather in the very near future?

[Downburst]

3 minutes ago, Dan B said:

For those in the know; can the recent volcanic eruptions cause any changes in our weather in the very near future?

No, not this type and size. The 2021 eruption for all the news it got covered 4.8 square KM with fresh lava for instance and like this one was not an eruption into the atmosphere. Of course the modern internet press system will have us in lockdown and scared to fly, but we know that's how it works nowadays. Some day though, you never know.

[feb1991blizzard]

Winter really looking terrible now.

[weathercold]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Winter really looking terrible now.

Only if you believed a warming chart at 300 + hrs over last few days. Whilst some are not willing to concede I feel the writing has been on the wall for this winter for a few weeks now. Could not understand the early season optimism- felt it was being over egged tbh.

Edited December 19, 2023 by weathercold

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Only if you believed a warning chart at 300 + hrs over last few days. Whilst some are not willing to concede I feel the writing has been on the wall for this winter for a few weeks now. Could not understand the early season optimism- felt it was being over egged tbh.

Sure Jen

[Met4Cast]

16 minutes ago, Dan B said:

For those in the know; can the recent volcanic eruptions cause any changes in our weather in the very near future?

In a word, no.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Only if you believed a warming chart at 300 + hrs over last few days. Whilst some are not willing to concede I feel the writing has been on the wall for this winter for a few weeks now. Could not understand the early season optimism- felt it was being over egged tbh.

You have a point there as no sustained HLB has ever got inside the reliable but the rest of your post...........

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

And there we have it..

The overnight EPS removes any remaining signal for cold weather over th Christmas period and beyond. Turning increasingly wet later into the forecast period. What an absurd period of model watching this has been.

The ensembles always had a risk of this thou so it can’t be a total surprise 

[weathercold]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Sure Jen

?

[weathercold]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have a point there as no sustained HLB has ever got inside the reliable but the rest of your post...........

We had some early northern blocking which we have showing their hand during many Novembers and then it disappears into thin air, returning usually by March. The hype was around background signals - simple as that. For all the hype we never saw one genuinely epic run across the main model suites. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by weathercold

[NewEra21]

Feel like it’s time to just forget the weather models for the Christmas period, then see how things look come the New Year.

Because if you’re a coldie the runs are just so poor currently and I don’t see a quick way out of this. I don’t think anyone thought things would look quite this poor to end the year

There will always be the next chase, let’s just hope it’s one we can finally land in 2024!

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by NewEra21

[blizzard81]

34 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Pretty awesome model output for those of us who dislike the cold. ECM or GFS close out the year with barely even a hint of a frost down here. As a bonus it doesn’t look overly wet either so hopefully plenty of beach walks. 

Yep, we all have different tastes. Hope you enjoy. 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Feel like it’s time to just forget the weather models for the Christmas period, then see how things look come the New Year.

Because if you’re a coldie the runs are just so poor currently and I don’t see a quick way out of this. I don’t think anyone thought things would look quite this poor to end the year

There will always be the next chase, let’s just hope it’s one we can finally land in 2024!

 

I think that's why people are so deflated. There was so much anticipation for the final third of December. 

[MattH]

Hi to all.

These are just some latest thoughts as the evolution continues to evolve. Still keep tabs on short-term NWP for the phasing of the low from over the Eastern Seaboard the next day or so and how this then evolves towards the weekend. The initial developments of this low are linked to a trough disruption that hasn't even occurred yet, but growing evidence for the more seasonal NW flow to tuck in behind that low by Christmas Day, at least for 2/3 of the country. Not what many want of course, but some drop off in temperatures to more seasonal levels remains a good shout by Christmas and we see where we go from there in a volatile and interesting outlook...

Best wishes to all for the Christmas period.

[Penguin16]

Are background signals on a par with fortune telling by this stage? 

[Continental Climate]

12 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Are background signals on a par with fortune telling by this stage? 

There are many people on here who put a great deal of time and effort into researching and explaining the background signals in the hope of better learning about the weather. I know I look forward to their posts as I find them so interesting. 

Then there are people who seem to want to undermine all that hard work and effort with silly one line posts, as seen above. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Continental Climate

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

There are many people on here who put a great deal of time and effort into researching and explaining the background signals in the hope of better learning about the weather. I know I look forward to their posts as I find them so interesting. 

Then there are people who seem to want to undermine all that hard work and effort with silly one line posts, as seen above. 

I love learning  about the models and analysing patterns. I know very little but have learnt a few things. Keep the education going. I imagine in our neck of the woods it's only to be expected that forecasts will sometimes be wrong. Especially longer term. All good though

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Are background signals on a par with fortune telling by this stage? 

Only when it comes to predicting cold spells, there is always some unknown that scuppers the positive signals for cold.

If background signals are predicting wet and mild you can guarantee that's what will happen.

[Vikos]

This thread is getting silly… time for a break. Hopefully next year will deliver. But as unfortunate as I am it will turn cold and snowy in march and April…

[adrianh]

Medium/Long term weather prediction is all about probabilities at the end of the day. Positive (for cold) background signals merely improve the probability for cold, they don't guarantee it, particularly as everything has to be aligned very specifically to deliver sustained cold weather for the small land mass that is the UK. 

[blizzard81]

32 minutes ago, MattH said:

Hi to all.

These are just some latest thoughts as the evolution continues to evolve. Still keep tabs on short-term NWP for the phasing of the low from over the Eastern Seaboard the next day or so and how this then evolves towards the weekend. The initial developments of this low are linked to a trough disruption that hasn't even occurred yet, but growing evidence for the more seasonal NW flow to tuck in behind that low by Christmas Day, at least for 2/3 of the country. Not what many want of course, but some drop off in temperatures to more seasonal levels remains a good shout by Christmas and we see where we go from there in a volatile and interesting outlook...

Best wishes to all for the Christmas period.

Thank you Matt, Merry Christmas to you too. Thank you for your updates. They are a very valuable tool and great addition to this forum

[Catacol]

15 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I love learning  about the models and analysing patterns. I know very little but have learnt a few things. Keep the education going. I imagine in our neck of the woods it's only to be expected that forecasts will sometimes be wrong. Especially longer term. All good though

"Sometimes"? Hehe - I'd turn that to "often" or maybe "usually." Even when the macro patterns are nailed, we are such a small island that tiny alterations can make a big difference. And at the eastern edge of the north atlantic those micro patterns can be a nightmare to pin down. I do not know the data, but I rather suspect that weather forecasting in the UK is one of the hardest parts of the globe to pin down with certainty. The potential for dominant long draw south westerlies because of the Hadley Cell and our position in latitude is always there - but at the same time a burst of momentum and a significant wave eddy can create an easterly draw that suddenly pulls in bitter continental air. We truly have a variable package.

I think I'd like to say at this point that, for all the problems in getting a pattern accurate, we shouldn't stop trying. This is a model watching thread so all forms of model related output are fair game but I also hope that, no matter how frustrating it can be, there will continue to be a place for those who try to anticipate what may appear in the models, predict when perhaps the models are barking up the wrong tree, and provide some kind of analysis of that. It is true that, over the years, this site/thread has had favourite topics to explain failure or misery. We had a season when all the talk was of the IOD. We have had multiple seasons where solar has been a focus - interestingly very little about this in 2023 so far. But in the end these are all chapters in a growing book of knowledge, a book albeit undermined by CC and significant climate challenges both now and in the future, but a knowledge compendium nonetheless. And for nearly everyone on this site it is a hobby. A few have gone on to make a living out of it - GP did and I think Matt also these days...but as a hobby people need to know that time is finite and we cannot be experts. If I could put as much time into my winter weather passion every day as I have to put into my real job then maybe expertise might follow....but at best we are amateur to semi pro in status.

Anyway....it does look as though Xmas now will be fairly unremarkable. There is a hint still that things may change in the run up to New Year. Beyond that we have events in the strat followed by the next passage of the pacific wave to look forward to. And if 2023/24 goes into the bin then there is always 2024/25. A never ending diet of mouth watering excitement. And for all the frustration at not actually landing a proper, frigid, minimum one week belter of a snow context much of the fun is in the foreplay.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Catacol

[Phil Blake]

Alot of people feeling very downbeat today and especially around the background signals. From what I had understood we were expecting a back loaded winter anyways so anything before hand is a bonus. Keep the faith everyone. I'm sure January and/or February will deliver something even if the models are showing turd at the moment.

Also a big thanks to the ones sharing their knowledge and understanding. Been some great well written posts recently. 

[blizzard81]

39 minutes ago, Catacol said:

"Sometimes"? Hehe - I'd turn that to "often" or maybe "usually." Even when the macro patterns are nailed, we are such a small island that tiny alterations can make a big difference. And at the eastern edge of the north atlantic those micro patterns can be a nightmare to pin down. I do not know the data, but I rather suspect that weather forecasting in the UK is one of the hardest parts of the globe to pin down with certainty. The potential for dominant long draw south westerlies because of the Hadley Cell and our position in latitude is always there - but at the same time a burst of momentum and a significant wave eddy can create an easterly draw that suddenly pulls in bitter continental air. We truly have a variable package.

I think I'd like to say at this point that, for all the problems in getting a pattern accurate, we shouldn't stop trying. This is a model watching thread so all forms of model related output are fair game but I also hope that, no matter how frustrating it can be, there will continue to be a place for those who try to anticipate what may appear in the models, predict when perhaps the models are barking up the wrong tree, and provide some kind of analysis of that. It is true that, over the years, this site/thread has had favourite topics to explain failure or misery. We had a season when all the talk was of the IOD. We have had multiple seasons where solar has been a focus - interestingly very little about this in 2023 so far. But in the end these are all chapters in a growing book of knowledge, a book albeit undermined by CC and significant climate challenges both now and in the future, but a knowledge compendium nonetheless. And for nearly everyone on this site it is a hobby. A few have gone on to make a living out of it - GP did and I think Matt also these days...but as a hobby people need to know that time is finite and we cannot be experts. If I could put as much time into my winter weather passion every day as I have to put into my real job then maybe expertise might follow....but at best we are amateur to semi pro in status.

Anyway....it does look as though Xmas now will be fairly unremarkable. There is a hint still that things may change in the run up to New Year. Beyond that we have events in the strat followed by the next passage of the pacific wave to look forward to. And if 2023/24 goes into the bin then there is always 2024/25. A never ending diet of mouth watering excitement. And for all the frustration at not actually landing a proper, frigid, minimum one week belter of a snow context much of the fun is in the foreplay.

You touched on the fact that solar activity hasn't been mentioned much this season. I 'used' to bring the subject up quite often as I believe it has a significant effect on winter weather synoptics. I gave up mentioning it on here though as I got sick to the back teeth of the nay sayers and the snidy remarks. My philosophy now is that people will hopefully research this phenomenon in their own time if they are willing and open to the scientific reasonings behind it. 

[Paul_1978]

5 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Regardless of Christmas from a coldies perspective they are meh for winter .

Outside of winter months the outputs don’t tend to get as much discussion. So unreliability tends to get missed .

You didn’t mention the words “upstream” or “shortwave” - are you OK Nick 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Paul_1978
Duplication