Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Certainly is . Looks similar to those EC 46 charts for the start of Jan tho over are side of the globe so……..

Apart from one obvious difference …….

   

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Apart from one obvious difference …….

   

Pressure higher to the south ? But it is very similar right ? Really hope we get something Jan . I feel slightly more confident after EC46 and ssw potential etc 

[Thunderchild]

2 minutes ago, Big Gally said:

The met office have spoke about it turning wintry start of the month. 

It does seem to be a pattern we have started to see more and more in recent years, mild Christmas (in the south) followed by colder temps going into the New Year. You feel if Xmas was a week later there would be a much better chance of the white stuff.

[Metwatch]

21 minutes ago, Thunderchild said:

You feel if Xmas was a week later there would be a much better chance of the white stuff.

Some do celebrate Christmas on the 7th January, (not in the UK much though) due to going by the Gregorian Calender and I think that's often colder both here and other parts of Europe in some years.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Metwatch

[Jan]

I read, somewhere, that for the UK to get snow in December or Christmas is highly unlikely. Our SST are too high. Our best chance for snow is come late January/Febuary

[MP-R]

Our best window for SSTs vs still weak sun wrt snow is roughly Jan 20th - Feb 10th, also the coldest part of the winter… similar to the equivalent July/August period for warmth.

Although I’ll be away for most of Jan, I’ll be looking for signs of a proper cold spell dropping during this period for my arrival back on the 26th.

[WYorksWeather]

Yep, definitely something a lot of people forget is how much inertia there is with the SSTs.

I've been showing this as an anomaly chart, and will have a closer look at that again sometime soon, but here it is in absolute numbers - the ECMWF sea surface temperature chart.

At T+0, and then at T+360:

 

You can see that even two more weeks is enough to push those temperatures down a fair bit more, particularly to our north-east, which is where major interest tends to lie in winter.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Yep, definitely something a lot of people forget is how much inertia there is with the SSTs.

I've been showing this as an anomaly chart, and will have a closer look at that again sometime soon, but here it is in absolute numbers - the ECMWF sea surface temperature chart.

At T+0, and then at T+360:

 

You can see that even two more weeks is enough to push those temperatures down a fair bit more, particularly to our north-east, which is where major interest tends to lie in winter.

Didn't stop snow here in early December for a change, will admit a was expecting rain or sleet as usual.

[lassie23]

11c cloudy is what is predicted in London on Christmas Day. I think this is the default settingSo no matter what the models show with all the pointless twists and turns we ended with the same dullness 9 out of 10 Christmas Days lol

[That ECM]

At this time T240 ish never going to be the same. However similar in profile. Could be some very interesting out put over the coming days. Would be nice to see ecm to start suggesting something not dissimilar out in fi in its output.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Something stirring towards new year. GFS showing an emerging 4 wave pattern

 

Beginning of the end of the spv? 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Something stirring towards new year. GFS showing an emerging 4 wave pattern

 

Beginning of the end of the spv? 

You've jinxed it again.

[carinthian]

Morning all, looks like models firming up on Christmas Day. Most of you should have quite a nice seasonal day with a chilly wind and frosty Christmas Night. Any snowfall , probably reserved for The Northern Highlands that may see local blizzards for a time. What about that chart from UKMO end of Boxing Day ? Now that would deliver blizzards to parts of Scotland . Um . As I think trouble is brewing out west as the jet weakens and splits post Christmas   

C

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by carinthian

[TillyS]

Good morning all. The lack of northern blocking continues, with a persistent high pressure to our south. None of which adds up to cold. A generally mild Christmas south of Scotland.

The real story I suggest is the strength of the wind over the next week or so. There are two or three potent storms. Two of these are in the far north, and one around the 27th will affect more of the country. Stormy:

That’s the last frame on the UKMO at T168, suggesting the next couple of frames will bring those gales across more of southern Britain and the Midlands. A pretty wild day at a time when a lot of people may be travelling  

Edited December 20, 2023 by TillyS

[TillyS]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

11c cloudy is what is predicted in London on Christmas Day. I think this is the default settingSo no matter what the models show with all the pointless twists and turns we ended with the same dullness 9 out of 10 Christmas Days lol

The 0z GFS backs you up. Christmas Day morning:

Christmas Day midday:

 

0z UKMO suggests mild in the south and a little chillier further north:

Christmas Day night i.e. waking up Boxing Day will be cold in the far north:

Edited December 20, 2023 by TillyS

[That ECM]

Gefs not loading again?

[Vikos]

26 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gefs not loading again?

Yes. 

WXCharts v1.0.21

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

[Harsh Climate]

Well at first glance this morning's output a lot better than yesterday morning's! 

Nothing to right home about but at least the famous word on here 'potential' is back on the table!  

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Yes. 

WXCharts v1.0.21

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

Meteociel then.

[nick sussex]

An interesting start to the day with the diving shortwave running se day 6 into 7 .

The ECM now removing low heights to the north and quite different from last nights run .

Overall something seems to be brewing but too early to say where it ends up!

Edited December 20, 2023 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

2 hours ago, That ECM said:

At this time T240 ish never going to be the same. However similar in profile. Could be some very interesting out put over the coming days. Would be nice to see ecm to start suggesting something not dissimilar out in fi in its output.

 I do think we are going to see some fun runs coming over the next days. This doesn’t just look like the gfs going off on a beano .

Edited December 20, 2023 by That ECM

[Duane S.]

 

A step in the right direction, or just another ‘random’ D10 output?

OK, yesterday’s 12z was a low bar but I think we are going to vast improvements in the outlook by the time we get to the big day.

 

[mountain shadow]

Any run removing heights over Iberia should be viewed with caution!

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Any run removing heights over Iberia should be viewed with caution!

Let's not!!!

[Eagle Eye]

With the jet retraction in the lagged rough 2 week (Rossby wave transversing the planet) response to the jet extension and the pattern flip. We'll likely see a flip to nuetral/negative PNA in the first week or 2 of January. This could well work in our favour. As long as we don't see a full recovery initially, we may well see the initial reaction to be dampened and so trough response is to push everything up (well, pivot most up) in north America and that could see a +VE heights response pushed from Canada towards Greenland. The composite also suggests the development of a mid-Atlantic ridge connecting up with the Greenland signal. Depending on timing, this could be the final push for the Stratosphere (earlier reaction) and/or could set up a blocking pattern for cold potential here. 

However, it is a setup very close to the ridge becoming a zonal setup with the Hadley cell expansion into Europe and Greenland heights Retrogression leaves us in a bad position with Euro heights and a very zonal setup. 

So if the Greenland +VE heights do happen, they probably won't have much time to work and so we'd much rather prefer for a Stratospheric response in my opinion but we'll see what happens. The switch to - VE PNA isn't guaranteed and it's just a composite setup.