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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

MATTWOLVES 3

By MATTWOLVES 3
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion. Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like some localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. 

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly
 

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Posted by lorenzo,

You know what would be cool - if folks could take it back to reviewing the models, looking at the output, posting up some thoughts. Importantly, without adding in a layer of spiky thoughts about what others may or may not be doing, or howthey should or should not be behaving, one liners, agendas, this ramp, that ramp. We have another great period of model watching ahead, excitement is all good. Trolling, sniping, various - that person should be this or that - it's quite boring, and det

Please have a read of this post and bear it in mind when posting.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

This gfs doesn’t split at 10 hpa but it does just  about reverse (nope - 3m/s) 

It does split below 20 hpa 

it looks closer to the eps mean than previous runs 

Edited by bluearmy
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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

The 12z EPS offered the best extended panel in a long time.

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Also reflected by the jump in the number of (North)Easterlies in De Bilt.

Slowly growing confidence that we may see at least something that feels more like winter.

eps_windrichting_kanspluim_06260.thumb.png.65d43a68b4e5975c0a65a7944e758134.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This gfs doesn’t split at 10 hpa but it does just  about reverse 

It does split below 20 hpa 

it looks closer to the eps mean than previous runs 

Hi. Is the 20hpa visible on metiociel Ba. Tia👍

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Frostbite80 said:

Merry Christmas mate but, you have to be the most flip flop poster on here confusing everyone. Have an open mind rather than just going on op runs which you seem to do. Cold today warm tomorrow isnt helpful when others take a broader look at all models.

Flip flopping is better than sticking to an inaccurate view of what's going to happen - switching frequently is common from even experienced professionals. The weather is not static.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

EPS in full out Jan 8th, MSLP anomaly something is clearly brewing moving further into January.

-NAO is likely coming in early January and early indications it will be stubborn. 

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
4 hours ago, johncam said:

Hope your right , but for me the optimum time for Snow is mid December to Mid Jan , low sun long nights , different times now so need to be really cold for snow to lie, can't quickly turn into a slushfest. Fingers crossed.

March 2013 was amazing for continuous cold, 21-22nd my area had 24" of level snow, then the wind got up, creating considerable drifts. It stayed very cold throughout.  April 1st was even an ice day....

That was a result of a January SSW if I recall correctly.

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted
10 minutes ago, JeffC said:

March 2013 was amazing for continuous cold, 21-22nd my area had 24" of level snow, then the wind got up, creating considerable drifts. It stayed very cold throughout.  April 1st was even an ice day....

That was a result of a January SSW if I recall correctly.

Agree re March 2013. Over a week of lying snow post-solstice in Essex. Snow showers and frosts into early April.

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First -15er to come out, give me more of these, this is when the buzz starts to kick in for me, them slushy deposits don't cut it.

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Yes,let's get the -28 upper air in during peak winter. No half measures as you say 🙂

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icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
Posted
46 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Flip flopping is better than sticking to an inaccurate view of what's going to happen - switching frequently is common from even experienced professionals. The weather is not static.

Disagree but merry Christmas Kasim, you're far too hasty

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Certainly keeps the chance of a midlands snow event alive for next weekend 

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Can someone nuke the M4/ Thames lol this WILL happen guaranteed 😂 as its the default set up

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

It doesn’t get any better so enjoy what you have now 🙂 Merry Christmas All 🎄

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Lookeast4winter Rookie

Lookeast4winter

Posted
  • Location: Canary wharf
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Canary wharf
Posted

Happy Christmas everyone 🎄🎄 I've never added anything to this knowledgeable chat but I've gained so much and enjoy every moment, thank you and keep up the good work 👏 🙌 

 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Strong GEFS mean at that lead time. Impressive

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Time to get the big coats out soon.

Edited by Cheshire Freeze
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
13 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Strong GEFS mean at that lead time. Impressive

image.thumb.png.84139636e4e0da080b63b55de8b2f067.png
 

Time to get the big coats out soon.

That’s one of the best anoms I’ve seen, pressure is high still over the UK NW indicating that troughs are likely well south and cold winds are established. 
 

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone!

GFS is at the party:

IMG_8136.thumb.png.0a9aa13b46fa6b76516551dd899ebdcd.png

I reckon the earliest this will ‘get interesting’ is about 12 days from now at the moment - that seems to be the first real opportunity for massive amplification into Greenland, you can see that is the timescale on the ensembles.

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andy989 Rising Star

andy989

Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
Posted
26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Merry Christmas everyone!

GFS is at the party:

IMG_8136.thumb.png.0a9aa13b46fa6b76516551dd899ebdcd.png

I reckon the earliest this will ‘get interesting’ is about 12 days from now at the moment - that seems to be the first real opportunity for massive amplification into Greenland, you can see that is the timescale on the ensembles.

I just knew that any real interest would coincide EXACTLY with when I fly out of the UK😭😂

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
7 hours ago, swfc said:

Look way nne ie pressure rise and heighths rising in the Atlantic. Ive screenshot the 7th, ive got a feeling thats the timeframe for change, hopefully 🙏🙏

🙏🙏🙏

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

GFS Santa 🎅 has left some coldie gifts.😄

 

Hope you all have a lovely day. ❤️

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

I picked the 7th as ref point for the mean. Fridays and today’s. 😄 as the op and control will lack some consistency at this range obviously, I feel it gives an overall picture of the signal growing or not. It is imo. 👍

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Edited by That ECM
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Merry Xmas all.

The UKMO is the most interesting evolution in the medium term.  Less influence of the AH and seemingly more trough disruption.  ECMWF det not interested in this type of evolution.  One to watch...

 

image.thumb.png.235d7e4880902cb29de173b60c96d7cf.png

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Happy Christmas to you all

But the ECMWF shows little indication of any cold setting in this morning for the start of 2024?

00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

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