Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[swfc]

Big upgrade ec 12z

[Chesil View]

Ecm starting to smell a different way forward at 216/240.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Chesil View

[Mike Poole]

ECM already on the march towards a cold one at T240:

You can see the fault line already!

[Alexis]

Lobe of the vortex going walkies to the west with pressure rising behind over Greenland

 

[Uncertainty]

Merry Christmas to you all. Perhaps the first of hopefully many interesting ecm runs after what seems like an eternity being Scrooge. Perhaps, like Marley in the doorknob, the ridge building to the nw is the harbinger of change…
 

 

This place is going to be buzzing soon. 

[mountain shadow]

ECM finally joining the party?

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Lobe of the vortex going walkies to the west with pressure rising behind over Greenland

 

Yes it was evident at 144/168 hrs. Good move nhp wise by the ec be it fi, caveats etc

Edited December 25, 2023 by swfc

[lorenzo]

Nothing to see here... carry on

[Dorsetbred]

8 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Merry Christmas to you all. Perhaps the first of hopefully many interesting ecm runs after what seems like an eternity being Scrooge. Perhaps, like Marley in the doorknob, the ridge building to the nw is the harbinger of change…
 

 

This place is going to be buzzing soon. 

Slowly, Slowly Catchee Monkey, how often have we been here?

[The Real Snowman]

38 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Netweather wins all the time. It really is an escape from the tribulations & the most fantastic friends group going.

Yeah, most of are hope casters but if you don't have hope what is there.

Merry Christmas to one & all and to see lots of different options on display truly is well timed

This was last Boxing Day & plenty more years we ONLY just missed out.

Agreed - Merry Christmas all and I hope a peaceful and healthy New Year to all too. Thank you everyone for their contributions to this superb forum, it certainly helps me day to day. 

[lorenzo]

Just spied this on twitter... interesting perspective

[johncam]

Let's be honest the models are all over the place , not two of them the same 

[Scott Ingham]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it was evident at 144/168 hrs. Good move nhp wise by the ec be it fi, caveats etc

Things are moving on just nicely! Timing from the huge uptick in AAM and then the heat up in the stratosphere is about to send this place into a frenzy! Timing wise it feels like so long we’ve seen things aligned to hit us right in the heart of winters coldest weeks! It’s this part that excites me! As good as March 18 etc were you can’t beat snow in mid January!

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest the models are all over the place , not two of them the same 

Not at all. Maybe looking at wrong outputs?

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Things are moving on just nicely! Timing from the huge uptick in AAM and then the heat up in the stratosphere is about to send this place into a frenzy! Timing wise it feels like so long we’ve seen things aligned to hit us right in the heart of winters coldest weeks! It’s this part that excites me! As good as March 18 etc were you can’t beat snow in mid January!

Yes pal outlook none to shabby unlike our football teamsDo you see the pv splitting at 10pha.

[Djdazzle]

Not buying any of this cold outlook yet. Good to see cold potential in the output rather than mild dross, but way too early to get excited.

A couple of weeks ago, the models were showing a cold Christmas, which rapidly disappeared as the time approached.

That Azores HP either needs to dissolve or get sucked north to increase my optimism.

[Harsh Climate]

15 minutes ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest the models are all over the place , not two of them the same 

It's the models trying to get to grip with the big pattern change about to happen, happens all the time!

Cold, blocked and real prospect for snow as we head through January! 

 

I've been saying this for days as have a fair few other experienced members on here, you would have to be blind not to see this.

People beating on the 'won't happen' or 'mild' drum simply because one of the key 3 models output is poor say the 00z ECM earlier, whilst the other 2 are good... Your are unlikely to get all free (GFS, ECM, UKMO) singing off the same hym sheet until around 144h even then can be too far out.

Can deny it all you like but the cold is coming mark my words 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes pal outlook none to shabby unlike our football teamsDo you see the pv splitting at 10pha.

That’s very true hahaha! Both teams are dreadful although you’ve certainly improved under Mr Rohl. It’s not really an area I’m massively clued up on pal tbh but what limited knowledge I do have and what I’ve gleaned from experience the consistency and steady build in daily confidence alongside the trop precursor patterns we’re seeing to me suggests high confidence in a split at 10hpa with a quick downwell due to damage already done from the Canadian warming. 
 

The last time I had this level of confidence on a severe spell of cold was 2018

[Djdazzle]

13 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

It's the models trying to get to grip with the big pattern change about to happen, happens all the time!

Cold, blocked and real prospect for snow as we head through January! 

 

I've been saying this for days as have a fair few other experienced members on here, you would have to be blind not to see this.

People beating on the 'won't happen' or 'mild' drum simply because one of the key 3 models output is poor say the 00z ECM earlier, whilst the other 2 are good... Your are unlikely to get all free (GFS, ECM, UKMO) singing off the same hym sheet until around 144h even then can be too far out.

Can deny it all you like but the cold is coming mark my words 

 

It’s bitter experience that makes people bang upon the drum.

So many times in the past have cold spells failed to happen because one of the big three shows a milder outcome.

I’m not saying it’ll happen this time - but I wouldn’t be surprised either.

[lorenzo]

20 minutes ago, johncam said:

Let's be honest the models are all over the place , not two of them the same 

Let's be honest johncam - changes are afoot and our old friend 'Shannon Entropy' is gonna kick off royally in the next week.

We have waited through a gruesome December and just on cue for the New Year is a meaningful spike in AAM, a solid SSW projected, a heavily degraded vortex and the flip of a Nino winter within an eQBO. If those are not things to whet the appetite for what may lie ahead then am unsure why we slavishly follow each model run other than to greet about things.

The dynamical processes of the above regardless of what they deliver are what I love to see - the tropospheric NWP in chaos, the wave breaks heralding changes, the Stratosphere connections to the trop, the AAM MT events, the MJO pacific passages teleconnecting. All of this stuff makes the 0z the 06z, the 12z the 18z run along it's narrative. 14 years ago we just had hints of - oh, what is the MJO. or, what is AAM, or what is the strat. Now we see how they interact and dance, now we see how heat-flux builds, now we see Canadian Warmings, now we see Nino standing patterns, now we see IOD more clearly and TC influence.

Now we see a whole lot more - and in ten years time we will see more again.

All of which is on this very place, on this very forum from different angles all round. We are staring down the barrel of some MT action, an imminent MMW- maybe SSW or SS Wino as I call it for early Jan SSW In name only, perhaps a second once the Pacific rolls thru and MJO attenuates.

Am not meaning to pick on Johncam at all here - am just responding for the general doom n gloom stuff today to try and create some perspective on - we are looking for winter and dream synoptics we can only enjoy if we live in LongYearBen - we are in the AGW age - 2010 was an anomaly.

Let's enjoy the twists of this winter, the recent understanding we have all gained with the dance between GWO, Strat and Trop and hope from a cold perspective of something meaningful during early Jan to set up a notable few weeks of winter. 

[Cambrian]

The colder local pattern is established as early as day 10 on the 12z GEFS, that’s the 4th of January as the trough gets through to our east with a strong build in heights to the northwest, the 12z Christmas Day offering for day 10 much more clearly developed in this regard than the 12z Christmas Eve for day 11. Heights and T850s anomalies, yesterday…

 

vs today…

 

The hemispheric pattern consolidates further thereafter. By day 14, there’s a pronounced Siberia - Scandinavia trough, low heights throughout Europe, and the whole continent is in the fridge. 

 

Worth noting that going by today’s GEFS, these changes to a cold pattern are being described by a better defined setup - in that regard more clearly signalled to happen - and also to happen sooner.

It’s looking like the next few weeks will be compelling model viewing!

[Mair Snaw]

I think a white Christmas was well advertised by the models a long way out for some parts of Scotland.. and i can confirm that it has indeed been snawing for a few hours here now. 

The coming few weeks looks full of promise so lets see if we can really get the long snaw filled weather we all crave.

[MJB]

56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM already on the march towards a cold one at T240:

You can see the fault line already!

Well I am glad ECM is seen by some to be the most consistent  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s bitter experience that makes people bang upon the drum.

So many times in the past have cold spells failed to happen because one of the big three shows a milder outcome.

I’m not saying it’ll happen this time - but I wouldn’t be surprised either.

What i can't understand this time though is the split SSW isn't even forecast until a good few days into Jan and so any FI blocking is still probably 2 or 3 days early, so its the writing off of it before the generic trop to surface modelling has even had chance to pick it up, not got a problem with calling it as it is. i will be the first one to call it a bust if it does bust but we aren't even close yet to that happening.

[Harsh Climate]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s bitter experience that makes people bang upon the drum.

So many times in the past have cold spells failed to happen because one of the big three shows a milder outcome.

I’m not saying it’ll happen this time - but I wouldn’t be surprised either.

The bitter experience from model watching for me was next to zero snow from around 1997 all the way until 2009, That's 12 years with no more than a fleeting dusting or rain preceeded by couple hours snow. Since 2010 have had many good snowfalls below 100m. 

It is now very rare to have big model failures now when all big 3 are on board in a shortish time frame of 120h<.. I think models have been upgraded and improved over the last 2 decades.

The only thing I can think of is you have missed out locally?? I have noticed the South East in general not getting a lot of snow in recent years while I've had loads

Have the faith mate, your time will come.

And excellent post from Lorenzo BTW.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Harsh Climate