Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Allseasons-Si]

Does anyone want a hurricane on there Potuguese Holiday!

[booferking]

Torpedo has been launched 

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes a much cleaner run than previous...

18z v's 12z

[Battleground Snow]

I'm not sure guys Iberian heights look a little too strong

Late merry Xmas to all

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z brings the cold in much sooner than the 12z...

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Allseasons-Si

[pinball wizard]

10 hours ago, Tamara said:

Feliz Natal e todos

The strong Iberian heights have created a persistent inversion that has led to some very cold nights in parts of inland NE Portugal. Municipio de Bragança has seen some consecutive sub zero nights and freezing fog leading to rime deposits & Christmas card appearances. By contrast parts of the Algarve have seen maximum day values close to 18C. Locally to me the nights have been down to about 4C and daytimes around 14C.

Seeing festive pictures like this is quite the contrast to the 35C to 40C heat under similar pressure patterns in summer!

Much documented on this thread obviously but January is shaping up to do the opposite of how Dec/Jan 22/23 panned out. Quite a growing signal for a southerly tracking jet replacing eventually the anticyclonic inversion conditions in Iberia and blocking to the north of Europe. Not a day for any analysis, but hope all have a lovely day and best wishes for 2024

I can vouch for that @Tamara I'm in porto with inlaws and its been very cold by night, 2c! And with no heating in a stone house it is very cold! Never imagined the pesky azores high would continue to haunt me! Feliz Natal

[lorenzo]

The Greenland trop lead break is not on the models yet... damn this is gonna be some sporty NWP,

[legritter]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Torpedo has been launched 

Yes lets hope , fantastic sharts appearing at last , i think the charts may ebb and flow for a while , we can all dream well tonight of something more wintry .3 new weather books as presents today , great to see family and a great day all round .I wish all my mates friends on here the very best for next year , no baps today no Stella and no brown sauce , Let the CHASE Commence Gang . . 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And bang on que with the ec46...

[January Snowstorm]

Newer members here may not understand the significance of what's unfolding!! Believe me some of the guys posting the last 24hours or so rarely post on here unless a big event is looming!!

One little quip I have though. The depth of cold to our North could be better...

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

And bang on que with the ec46...

Si - those ec46 are the slp rather than heights.  Comparing apples and pears 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Si - those ec46 are the slp rather than heights.  Comparing apples and pears 

Oop's,...yes sorry,couldn't find the geo pot height's on the EC,so 500's will have to do

[Daniel*]

Latest EC46 is pornographic for winter enthusiasts, it intensifies the -NAO blocking into early February during major disruptions we tend to see several waves of much reduced zonal wind in trop. This is not your typical cold potential..

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Oop's,...yes sorry,couldn't find the geo pot height's on the EC,so 500's will have to do

The EC46 8th to 15th Jan is the best yet this season. 

[icykev]

14 minutes ago, legritter said:

Yes lets hope , fantastic sharts appearing at last , i think the charts may ebb and flow for a while , we can all dream well tonight of something more wintry .3 new weather books as presents today , great to see family and a great day all round .I wish all my mates friends on here the very best for next year , no baps today no Stella and no brown sauce , Let the CHASE Commence Gang . . 

 

Too many brussels legritter

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

The EC46 8th to 15th Jan is the best yet this season. 

Yes,...screams NE'ly

[ITSY]

 

core blimey. Merry Xmas chaps and chapettes!  

[Battleground Snow]

If only that ran on another 24 hours 

Holy grail link up 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

If only that ran on another 24 hours 

Holy grail link up 

One way single ticket to heaven. 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

If only that ran on another 24 hours 

Holy grail link up 

Yes mental charts really starting to appear now . This could be a wicked January for long time . Exciting times

[swfc]

So pretty good output today. 12z and more so the 18gfs show be it fi should that set of runs come anywhere near its goodbye atlantic, door shut

[Allseasons-Si]

I have 2 words to describe the 18z run

Choo! Choo!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

I have 2 words to describe the 18z run

Choo! Choo!

We need consolidation now over the next few days

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We need consolidation now over the next few days

The trend is your friend and i have seen that over the last few runs and now the ECM is sniffing like a dog wanting it's bone

Edited December 25, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Mcconnor8]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

The trend is your friend and i have seen that over the last few runs and now the ECM is sniffing like a dog wanting it's bone

Let's be honest we all have major PTSD from all the other chases so got to stay relatively grounded until it gets near the reliable despite how good the background drivers look at the moment as if something can go wrong it inevitably will do for us.