Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[ICE COLD]

Maybe some snow at day 7 on the ECM 168 to the north of this low ? 

[Nick123]

Also can I ask is this eye candy as a result of the ssw? Seems a little early..

[Chesil View]

ECM brings the Griceland High into play at 144. Just like GFS.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Chesil View

[Lukesluckybunch]

So close on the ECM to something special..a few slider type scenarios that could bring us the white stuff..at day 9 the Atlantic is trying to come in..but I'm looking at some renewed heights building out west for day 10..potentially a cut off high developing around iceland/greenland

Edited December 26, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Ali1977]

GFS day 9 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS day 9 

Wales looks a bit snowy! ECM is a nice run too..if it went on further I think it would be excellent past day 10

[Catacol]

35 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Also can I ask is this eye candy as a result of the ssw? Seems a little early..

Not SSW - driven by tropospheric factors already in play.

[DavidS]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS day 9 

I do love a GFS snow depth chart. The 00z also maintains the cold until the end of run.  Would be an interesting start to the year.

[That ECM]

Disagreement in the output, can’t work out how we are going to go cold. 

For me seeing ecm bought the biggest smile. T120 shows the start of pressure rise. Yep T120. we are a long way from seeing small details but that can wait.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not SSW - driven by tropospheric factors already in play.

Yes - the SSW is days away from happening yet, i understand the concept of a quick trop response but that would have to be a clairvoyant trop response!

[KTtom]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - the SSW is days away from happening yet, i understand the concept of a quick trop response but that would have to be a clairvoyant trop response!

..and then we get the much anticipated SSW which knocks the pattern back to Mild! Merry Christmas 

[Ali1977]

ECM is cracking for snow in the midlands and south by the way. 

[Nick F]

Quite a big change from the models for the 1st few days of the New Year, was looking rather mild with long-draw SWly winds, but the models this morning have pulled the jet stream further south, with that low moving up from the Azores underneath that wedge of +heights over the far North Atlantic. Something stirring ...

[nick sussex]

Happy Christmas and it looks like the models have picked up some festive cheer for coldies. 

The search for New Year cold and snow looks to be getting off to an interesting start .

Likely to be related to the more favorable MJO phase and the forecast steep decline in zonal winds being factored into the models .

So buckle up and enjoy the ride as those changes continue to feed into the outputs !

[Harsh Climate]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM is cracking for snow in the midlands and south by the way. 

I think somewhere is going to get clobbered from one of these lows over the next week or so. I would prefer that on the ECM 2-300 miles further north  but may be better for long term cold if the low(s) track further south. 

[mulzy]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM is cracking for snow in the midlands and south by the way. 

Interesting but way too far out to take seriously.  The medium-term broadscale pattern from the ensemble suites suggests an atlanctic ridge days 10-12.  Let's see how that evolves.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think somewhere is going to get clobbered from one of these lows over the next week or so. I would prefer that on the ECM 2-300 miles further north  but may be better for long term cold if the low(s) track further south. 

Yes those low tracks are essentially a marker for how much forcing is placed onto the jet . We often get this debate when we have shortwaves tracking into the UK .

It does become a bit IMBY related which is understandable given the scarcity of UK snow .

[TEITS]

My view on the models is this.

Whilst we all know the rollercoaster ride of following potential cold spells in the output. However it is the thrill of the chase that can be just as exciting as the actual weather it brings. I'm sure storm chasers will say the same thing despite often being a bust. In recent years the most disappointing aspect of our winters is the lack of cold spells to even chase. That certainly cannot be said for the position we are currently in.

The GEFS mean SLP for Iceland, Scandi has certainly changed with both showing an increase to 1020mb.

Based on the output if the blocking does occur then it is much more likely that our cold spell initially originates from blocking over Greenland/Iceland with a corresponding N/NE,ly flow.

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes those low tracks are essentially a marker for how much forcing is placed onto the jet . We often get this debate when we have shortwaves tracking into the UK .

It does become a bit IMBY related which is understandable given the scarcity of UK snow .

Yes and the weather can be cruel, it's usually the same area that gets hit over and over again.. While some places miss out altogether. 

If the turn of events to cold/blocked weather evolves from a set-up like the gfs 6z is showing I wouldn't be surprised if 2 or 3 lows dug in bringing snow on it's nothern side! The classic way would for each low to dig further and further south and east into the euro high. 

[Harsh Climate]

I think it's safe to say an excellent start to proceedings from the 3 key models this morning, I know ECM and UKMO aren't stellar like the GFS in FI but just looking at 144h they are all good and seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet! Only a day ago the potential was from 240h I have noticed a significant jump to 144h where we start to see real promise, so huge upgrades this morning IMO.

 

All 3 show some kind of Block/Col developing in the Atlantic

Edited December 26, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[BartyHater]

Many more positive signs for cold across the 00 suite as we go into the New Year, but there’s still a significant amount of scatter on the GFS 00 ENS and the Op is again one of the coldest members later.

As ever more runs needed but for now the trend is our friend for the New Year….hopefully it’ll continue to improve after what’s been a ridiculously mild Christmas for many of us.

 

[northwestsnow]

Excellent 00z runs..

Very exciting but I'm keeping quiet I don't wanna jinx it

[tight isobar]

A blend of - the American/European/ German London ones. Still scattered- yes… trending colder …..? - most definitely!. An interesting boxing day of outs coming up? .. for sure .

[Purga]

I know it's at the far end of of FI but we can dream as it's still Christmas. A Polar Low running down the spine of the country!

 And not to mention the GEFS of course

Edited December 26, 2023 by Purga

[Chesil View]

Gfs 00z very reminiscent of   the winter of 1979 build up with northern blocking gradually pushing each successive Atlantic incursion further and further south. Interesting modelling this morning with ECM bringing the Griceland High scenario in to play as well.