Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

That really is a exceptionally good mean at 174!

Better than 12z heights into Greenland and more energy heading south coldies hope?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Better than 12z heights into Greenland and more energy heading south coldies hope?

Yes and heights over Spain and Portugal look weak

[swfc]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Better than 12z heights into Greenland and more energy heading south coldies hope?

Yes control and mean look bangers

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS looking excellent.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes and heights over Spain and Portugal look weak

Perfect.. night gang… to those on the night shift.. dont break anything….

[sheikhy]

The cold is in CONTROL and looking pretty MEAN!!!!!But can we get it to operate?!!..........

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, sheikhy said:

The cold is in CONTROL and looking pretty MEAN!!!!!But can we get it to operate?!!..........

YAYYYYYY

[Cambrian]

All these machinations of the various ops are playing out front stage before a consolidating backdrop, such as that seen with the generous firming up of the colder pattern in the 12z EPS at day 9, here compared with 12z yesterday at day 10.

12z yesterday @ 240h

 

12z today @ 216h

 

Look at the bend in the contours straight north in today’s chart heading up into the Icelandic ridge and the greater heights, now further north, supporting it, as well as the stronger linkage of Atlantic to Arctic heights through Greenland. This brings the UK and Ireland into a longer fetch northerly flow at 500mb. 

The low heights associated with the Siberian lobe of the PV are further southwest, the European trough is further consolidated and also further west, an extension of low heights bending southwest through Western Europe, including the south of the UK. With all this, the T850s respond accordingly.

The overall trend is not flinching, indeed it’s sticking to schedule and even more clearly pointing at a cold spell.

[January Snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The cold is in CONTROL and looking pretty MEAN!!!!!But can we get it to operate?!!..........

It's not bad, but nothing to write home about either. Weakish heights moving North. Here it is

[Battleground Snow]

Relentless GFS op outliers

See you at 4am overnight crew

[January Snowstorm]

Here's the uppers for the control at 216hours. No better than minus 4 over a swath of the South. Early January, previous generations would be laughing at us drooling over such mediocrity 

[Lukesluckybunch]

The 7th onwards the op again is a big mild outlier!

[ITSY]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Relentless GFS op outliers

See you at 4am overnight crew

Really great trend line. And I wonder if the true pros have any insight into why the GFS ops are so relentlessly mild? The short answer of course is they could be right but I’d be interested in both the meteorological factors they pick up that the pack don’t, or the mechanical factors that programme the det a bit differently…

[ITSY]

The GEFS mean is also substantially more amplified over Iceland than the 12Z by +216hrs. Bodes well. 

Seen enough! Onto tomorrow folks. A good, bankable day. More of the same please!

[Kasim Awan]

GEFS has more cut off energy to the south of us days 7-9. This can either work for us or against us based on how much pressure is sent North. Inadequate pressure North and this will fuel the Azores high, conversely if pressure moves North it will act as reinforcement to the block and provide significant snow potential.

[January Snowstorm]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Relentless GFS op outliers

See you at 4am overnight crew

Very good, clear outlier there tbh

[Mark wheeler]

55 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Here's the uppers for the control at 216hours. No better than minus 4 over a swath of the South. Early January, previous generations would be laughing at us drooling over such mediocrity 

 Bank , bank , bank. You have no idea for us in and around London this is Narnia mate

Edited December 31, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[January Snowstorm]

The control at 240hrs. Most likely wrong at this point, but heights dissolving to our North and the jet gaining ground South of Greenland.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The control at 240hrs. Most likely wrong at this point, but heights dissolving to our North and the jet gaining ground South of Greenland.

That just looks really cold to me!

[Jason M]

For the far south / south East GEFS 28 is the holy grail of model runs. Absolutely perfect passing of a low through the channel. 

It will never happen but for us in the snow starved far south it would give a whole new meaning to the M4 Corridor 

[Allseasons-Si]

In the ext'd gefs mean i see renewed push of heights in the Atlantic,...i don't think we a done after this initial cool/cold blast in the medium term and would tie in with the Met's thought's.

there is some bangers in there.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Allseasons-Si
Added text/charts

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

In the ext'd gefs mean i see renewed push of heights,...i don't think we a done after this initial cool/cold blast in the medium term and would tie in with the Met's thought's.

Funnily enough was just pondering that. Way in fi but a huge amount of very low 850s to the north of uk. Usual nuisance low needs to move ese and not fill

Edited December 31, 2023 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

GEFS will be good..

 

[Jason M]

24 minutes ago, Jason M said:

For the far south / south East GEFS 28 is the holy grail of model runs. Absolutely perfect passing of a low through the channel. 

It will never happen but for us in the snow starved far south it would give a whole new meaning to the M4 Corridor 

And it just gets better . In fact best run for whole country.

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, Jason M said:

Wherever we end up, one thing worth noting is the lack of 'blocking'. There are some good charts in isolation but if you run through the sequences on nearly every run and ensemble things are very mobile. I'm not talking about zonality clearly but if we get any cold, snowy weather its likely to be brief before a change comes.

So, you might see an easterly for 36 hours, then a UK high for a couple of days, then a short mild slot and so on.........

There is potential here but we don't seem to be looking at a static pattern where we could get an easterly for 4-5 days. 

Yes, the latest NAO index update would suggest nothing prolonged or severely cold unfortunately. It may well be the recent GFS OP runs are correct. A weakened and stretched  vortex probably isn't enough,  as any residual energy left over Greenland can be enough to scupper a cold spell. At the very least I hope we get a respite from the rain for a few days.