Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[PennineMark]

Beautiful day today. A little chilly, but nothing proper clothing doesn't sort out. Clear artic air gives fantastic blue skies. Perfect day for a little local walk with the dog down into Ashworth Valley. I'd be happy if it stayed like this for the week rather than cloud and bobbins potential for snow.

[Joe Bloggs]

12z GFS shows snow showers tomorrow morning. 
 

Reaching the coast by 3am and then most parts of the region by about 9am. 
 

10am onwards as the trough develops, the snow risk is restricted to Lancs and Cumbria with some heavy precipitation forecast. 
 

Sadly, dewpoints rise to above freezing alongside the trough’s development west of M6, however given the heavy precipitation it wouldn’t surprise me if higher ground in the north gets clobbered. 

Edited January 15 by Joe Bloggs

[A Face like Thunder]

A beautiful day here as well and good to see the evenings getting lighter. However temperatures dropping rapidly now and a very cold night ahead I imagine. 

[russwirral]

Upgrade on AROME heavy snow into wirral and northern cheshire overnight, ...still rolling out

[Joe Bloggs]

12z GFS gives 2cm of snow to Manchester by 9am. 
 

 

[Taylorthesnowman]

The Mrs is in caergwle near wrexham and has said it has just starting snowing there.

[damianslaw]

Nearly but not quite an ice day, well according to my sensor which went up to 0.3 degrees. Now below freezing.

[russwirral]

AROME is the model for this afternoon

Much more enhanced features for tonight, and makes much more of it going into tomorrow too

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, russwirral said:

AROME is the model for this afternoon

Much more enhanced features for tonight, and makes much more of it going into tomorrow too

A good one to have on board, and also good to see the agreement with GFS. 

[Joe Bloggs]

12z ARPEGE gives a light covering for most also. 

[Chris.R]

Below freezing here already

[weatherobsuk]

-1.4'c in Buxton and still dropping as the sun is now fully set, i've been a little occupied with events over in Iceland and recovering from a cluster-headache attack but i'm hoping tomorrow brings a few cm of snow this side of the Pennines by sunrise. 

[WillinGlossop]

-2.5c dew -7.4c clear skies if we get some snow we’ll get some proper cold nights 

[trickydicky]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I doubt it has much affect, it is only a mile wide. What does is the chain of high ground to our direct west, 800- 950m chain. Air uplifted and cooled enabling evaporative cooling on downward slope, hence why central lakeland roughly here up to Threlkeld can receive copious snow when places around the perimeter receives little.

 

That event in December was weird. I went for a walk in Patterdale that Saturday. The streamer ended literally at the south western end of Patterdale. And Patterdale isn’t usually a place you think of as having different parts as its so small. There was snow in Penrith but by Watermillock it was rain and the fields were green. There was no snow until coming into Glenridding and there wasn’t much until the White Lion, after which it was quite deep. You couldn’t really see down towards Brothers Water and cars were coming from that way with thick snow on the roof. It stayed below freezing all day in the Eden Valley but presumably some sort of localised fohn effect caused the middle third of Ullswater to be in a mild sector. 

[Day 10]

@cheshire snow

One for you mate.

[Rush2019]

What a fantastic day it has been, max of just 1°C, super feel good weather, lots more of the same please if I'm not going to see any snow.  Temp falling now, -1°C.

[Maz]

Slow to get involved in this chase...depleated mid winter SAD seretonin levels to blame!

However, todays crisp sun was a real boost and a nice sunset now.  

Nice set of ingrediants in place:  dry surface cold, light maritime flow injecting moisture, instability from shallow low encroaching from NW.  Very similar to early December in fact, so I'm hopeful there will be some action across the region in the next 24 hours - all the normal factors though:  marginal near the coast, localised streamers with little either side, warming aloft threatening to turn things sleety/graupal/rain.  Typical picture for the NW really.  Fingers crossed some of us see some snow.

Worth noting that a convective NW flow looks possible on Thursday too, which might provide more interest.

Have not looked at the weekend breakdown and any fronts then, but that always gives a last chance salon possibility.

 

Have fun this week everyone....

 

 

Edited January 15 by Maz

[Weather-history]

Ouch, this could be nasty

[russwirral]

AROME sets up a large streamer over northern Lancashire

If correct this could be similar to the event in Dec for Cumbria

[Joe Snow]

A very cold day GFS 12z gives even S Cheshire a covering overnight. We’ll see what happens but Thurs might be better IMBY  

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

A very cold day GFS 12z gives even S Cheshire a covering overnight. We’ll see what happens but Thurs might be better IMBY  

@Day 10

thanks for the charts Bud

yes Joe I think Thursday afternoon/evening/overnight looks fantastic for the Gap snow showers or streamers.

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, russwirral said:

AROME sets up a large streamer over northern Lancashire

If correct this could be similar to the event in Dec for Cumbria

Accept it will be the wet stuff and not the white stuff on low ground for the most part.

It will be interesting too see how it all develops but sadly the uppers are not cold enough for the majority. The question is how quick does the cold air digs down during the overnight period and will there still be PPN around to turn it back to snow.

[cheshireoak]

Currently showing-2.5 in the marginals. If it stays clear it could be a chilly one! Still some interest for snow, but lots of local variations I suspect.

[Spah1]

12 minutes ago, russwirral said:

AROME sets up a large streamer over northern Lancashire

If correct this could be similar to the event in Dec for Cumbria

Rain 

[Dark Horse]

By Thursday Harmonie going for a dusting/light cover over lower ground. Looking very good for parts of Lancs, Lakes and Yorkshire Dales.

Edited January 15 by Dark Horse