Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Frigid]

Saw this little reminder on my pc . Wonder what the record actually is.

[captaincroc]

I've been thinking a lot of the 'chase' of cold and to be honest the novelty does wear off quicker and quicker each year.  They seem to take an age to come - that's if they do - and then get watered down as our climate normally makes sure normality resumes.  America is always going to get it worse as the mass land mass keeps the cold, where as we are surrounded by warm waters so if any cold does come our way it normally breeds shortwaves, lows and spoilers quicker than Gremlins pop out after a glass of water is poured on them.

I think what makes it, is this thread really, the 'nowcasting' and updates as to what is going on. Yes I would love to see a good dumping in Crewe but second to that is seeing reports from around the area, I get a brew and scroll reading all your posts, pics etc.  Like Day 10 I think I will take a break from it all this weekend and ignore the models for a while, of course I will bob in to check periodically but another wet/stormy spell doesn't excite me that much.

This is not a downbeat message, I just think I'm becoming less bothered about the models and the 'chase' as I was.  Don't get me wrong, as soon as the fluffy stuff is here I am buzzing like a kid in a sweet shop...that love will never die...but it is exhausting and hard not to get emotionally charged one way or another when a spell gets downgraded etc.  I think a 'what will be, will be' approach will be mine moving forward and then if something does materialise I shall share it all with you lovely lot.

Before I take a break, it looks hopeful for some flakes Thursday? 

[Ghost of winters past]

3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

What a waste. 
 

Close to a monumental snow event

You have too feel for those in the Southern thred...er i mean MoD thred..

Throw back to Bullseye " Come an see what ya could`a won" 

Edited January 17 by Ghost of winters past
update

[cheshire snow]

@Day 10

Granada regional weather for tonight and tomorrow morning on the lunch time bulletin 

snow showers through Liverpool and Cheshire a few CM at low levels up to 5cm 150m plus

@Joe Snow

@captaincroc

@Rush2019

Edited January 17 by cheshire snow

[raul_sbd]

-0.2c with -5.7c DP looks like an ice day now..

Snow still on the back garden and street is like an ice rink.

Any chance of the showers later tonight getting this far @Kasim Awan @Chris.R?

95% of possibilities making it to the Mcr Airport in 1 piece coming Friday 3am.. Cruise time!

Edited January 17 by raul_sbd

[Dark Horse]

54 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I've been thinking a lot of the 'chase' of cold and to be honest the novelty does wear off quicker and quicker each year.  They seem to take an age to come - that's if they do - and then get watered down as our climate normally makes sure normality resumes.  America is always going to get it worse as the mass land mass keeps the cold, where as we are surrounded by warm waters so if any cold does come our way it normally breeds shortwaves, lows and spoilers quicker than Gremlins pop out after a glass of water is poured on them.

I think what makes it, is this thread really, the 'nowcasting' and updates as to what is going on. Yes I would love to see a good dumping in Crewe but second to that is seeing reports from around the area, I get a brew and scroll reading all your posts, pics etc.  Like Day 10 I think I will take a break from it all this weekend and ignore the models for a while, of course I will bob in to check periodically but another wet/stormy spell doesn't excite me that much.

This is not a downbeat message, I just think I'm becoming less bothered about the models and the 'chase' as I was.  Don't get me wrong, as soon as the fluffy stuff is here I am buzzing like a kid in a sweet shop...that love will never die...but it is exhausting and hard not to get emotionally charged one way or another when a spell gets downgraded etc.  I think a 'what will be, will be' approach will be mine moving forward and then if something does materialise I shall share it all with you lovely lot.

Before I take a break, it looks hopeful for some flakes Thursday? 

I see your point. A lot of things in life that are "exciting" do tend to lose their appeal after a while. I'll always love snow no matter if it's a light cover but I'd really like to see a really disruptive fall, a truly extreme event like 60cm of snow like what they get with a nor'easter in the states and even huger drifts with it. The question is what happens if that 60cm happens? Would we want even more than that to be satisfied again? 

[russwirral]

1 minute ago, Dark Horse said:

I see your point. A lot of things in life that are "exciting" do tend to lose their appeal after a while. I'll always love snow no matter if it's a light cover but I'd really like to see a really disruptive fall, a truly extreme event like 60cm of snow like what they get with a nor'easter in the states and even huger drifts with it. The question is what happens if that 60cm happens? Would we want even more than that to be satisfied again? 

its a good point and to be fair the adult in me, does not think the same as the childhood urges.  So when it snowed here yesterday I was glad it just got on with melting, as I always seem to think its magical, but the reality is I cant do much when it snows.  Im the type of person who likes to do alot, Golf, run, fish, mountain walk etc.  So usually when it snows, theres a realisation the day after that i can do none of these things.  

The point you make about big disruptive snow, ive only seen deep snow (ie 6") once or twice and that was when i was a kid.  I spent the days off school sledging and goofing about in the snow.  I wouldnt do any of those things currently - i might go for a walk to the pub to see it everywhere but thats it.

So the reality is, perhaps I dont want the snow, I just want the event.   Purely becuase they dont happen very often.  Its a rare extreme.  Same as wind and rain.  Im facinated by the numbers and how big they can be in whatever theyre measured, but it quickly becomes inconvenient when reality of life returns. 

 

Ill still love the snow and cold.  But id love to have the event, and quickly crack on with things i like.

[Kasim Awan]

21 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

-0.2c with -5.7c DP looks like an ice day now..

Snow still on the back garden and street is like an ice rink.

Any chance of the showers later tonight getting this far @Kasim Awan @Chris.R?

95% of possibilities making it to the Mcr Airport in 1 piece coming Friday 3am.. Cruise time!

You'll be fine. We aren't looking at disruptive levels of snow here.

[Chris.R]

I'm still expecting lots of precip in the Irish sea after midnight as soon as those T500s start to drop quickly.
West Merseyside (wirral/Sefton Coast) should see something early hours maybe reaching as far as Ellesmere port/Chester/Wrexham. This spreading a little further east by midday as far as a line say southport, Ormskirk, Huyton, Runcorn, Northwich. By early hours Friday should be a wnw flow so more widespread but T500s start to warm out by then so precip might be more scattered and lighter. Of course this is assuming there is precipitation and that these flow directions are reasonably accurate.

I no not many models are showing much but just instinct and experience tells me there will be more than predicted. 
I don't think anything east  of Manchester except maybe a window of a couple of hours early Friday. East of M6 maybe 12 hours window. Merseyside 36 hours. 

Edited January 17 by Chris.R

[russwirral]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I'm still expecting lots of precip in the Irish sea after midnight as soon as those T500s start to drop quickly.
West Merseyside (wirral/Sefton Coast) should see something early hours maybe reaching as far as Elsmere port/ Chester/Wrexham. This spreading a little further east by middaybas far as a line say southport, Ormskirk, Huyton, Runcorn, Northwich. By early hours Friday should be a wnw flow so more widespread but T500s start to warm out by then so precip might be more scattered and lighter after this. Of course this is assuming there is precipitation and that these flow directions are reasonably accurate.

I no not many models are showing much but just instinct and experience tells me there will be more than predicted. 
I don't think anything east  of Manchester except maybe a window of a couple of hours early Friday. East of M6 maybe 12 hours window. Merseyside 36 hours. 

good detail Chris, appreciated

[Scuba steve]

Lovely clear day minus 4 c at 8 am though never made an ice day with temperatures rising to 2 c couldn’t take a picture as driving but coming over high Newton this morning the view of the lakes was stunning in full winter conditions 

[captaincroc]

29 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

I see your point. A lot of things in life that are "exciting" do tend to lose their appeal after a while. I'll always love snow no matter if it's a light cover but I'd really like to see a really disruptive fall, a truly extreme event like 60cm of snow like what they get with a nor'easter in the states and even huger drifts with it. The question is what happens if that 60cm happens? Would we want even more than that to be satisfied again? 

I always thought this too. I think my 'dream' is to see a proper extreme snow event in my area. Snowdrifts, etc..roads cut off. But if we get that will be satisfied again? It's a bit like model fatigue even in cold weather as once we get it then we are kinda 'done'.

 

Yesterday was a joy to see, yeah it was barely a covering but it was SO pretty and so rare to have a 'Canadian morning' (my new phrase haha) where nothing has melted, everything is dry, no dripping and it was stunning. Took the dog for the longest walk and then even sat out in my garden for a good hour with a coffee just chillin and soaking it up.  As minimal fall as that was it kinda gave me my fix I think! Obviously I want more but I got my dopamine hit from that! As a slushy two inches does nothing for me...

Fingers crossed for a few more flakes before the obese lady belts this weekend. haha.

[raul_sbd]

Temps going down fast now -0.5c and -4.9dp... so todays Max -0.2 since 6am when it went negative

[A Face like Thunder]

Lovely day here as well. I think I shall need to get the car warmed up soon for my trip out later on, as I expect it to be really cold by the time I have to go out this evening

[Joe Bloggs]

Just checked a number of the high-res models. Harmonie , Arpege and Arome all showing a bit of activity here tomorrow evening. 

[raul_sbd]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Just checked a number of the high-res models. Harmonie , Arpege and Arome all showing a bit of activity here tomorrow evening. 

You got the screenshots Joe?

Can we broke the -9.4c temps of Dec last year here in Glossop tonight.. will see, looking promising

[Snowmusic]

I never post in the Mod thread and it drives me mad sometimes but I still go back in winter every year to follow it - can’t help it! But it  a shame when we’re having this lovely cold week and people forget to enjoy it at the time! Gorgeous blue sky and frozen snow cover here - a proper beautiful winter’s day. I’d live a long cold spell but I still want to make the most of this one. Hope everyone is having a good day 

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

You got the screenshots Joe?

Can we broke the -9.4c temps of Dec last year here in Glossop tonight.. will see, looking promising

Arpege

Thursday evening 

[damianslaw]

Temp has maxed at -0.7 degrees, a proper ice day. Carlisle has failed to climb above -2 degrees. I'd class this as notable cold.. all eyes on how low it goes next 12-18 hrs.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

@Day 10

Granada regional weather for tonight and tomorrow morning on the lunch time bulletin 

snow showers through Liverpool and Cheshire a few CM at low levels up to 5cm 150m plus

@Joe Snow

@captaincroc

@Rush2019

Thanks mate. Even if we don't get anything else, I've been more than happy with this week.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Thanks mate. Even if we don't get anything else, I've been more than happy with this week.

Absolutely  

but one last covering before the dross takes over for the next 10 days or so would be nice.

Then towards HP developments over Scandinavia 

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Arpege

Thursday evening 

The shorter term models certainly seem to be throwing out a bit more of a snow signal this afternoon for tomorrow.

I make that, the Icon, Arome & Arpege so far along with the ECM this morning. GFS rolling now.

 

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Absolutely  

but one last covering before the dross takes over for the next 10 days or so would be nice.

Then towards HP developments over Scandinavia 

[dodge]

BBC weather app says -3 by 5pm but then only a fall of 2° to -5 under clear skies by 7am tomorrow?  They could be right but I'm expecting a lower minima than that.  Definitely the coldest night of this week long artic blast to come.  Not expecting much wintry precip to fall now before the Atlantic westerlies invade at the weekend

Edited January 17 by dodge

[Scuba steve]

Just below zero now expecting a bloody cold night

[Slidergate '17]

-1 already here.