Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Rain Lady]

A bit of a catch up from me.  Been trying to get some outdoor work done this last week when we had some drier spells.  Apple pruning a priority and lots more to do.

Total rain for Feb = 184.8mm.   Feb average over 50 yrs is 109.2 mm.

So far  382.0 mm this year adding to the  grim wet legacy from last year.

Saw a red sky peeping under the cloud at dawn, so not surprised we had more rain and then snow and the sleet today.   Thin patchy snow layer for a while here by early afternoon.  Thawed away by 3pm but the fells were still white at sunset.

 

[Rain Lady]

Also wanted to mention some unusual early season observations.

Snowdrops were a day or two late opening,  then had a rapid flush of flowering in the warmth and are now half finished.  Normally we would have had another week before they started to  fade.  

The curlews have been here since the start of the second week of February. They were very noisy in the gentle days last week.   They have arrived earlier and earlier these last few years.  Used to be always about March 1st.

Some of the early apple trees have fattening buds.    Seem 3 weeks early.

However this last week a stoat in its winter white ermine coat has been dashing hither and thither among the tufts in the meadow.  So maybe, suggest not wise to take off your fur coat.  Could be lots of cold weather to come.  Snow at Easter perhaps?

 

 

[Chris.R]

Currently 0.8°C, 3.5°C colder than predicted by WRF.

[Rain Lady]

A treat at the end of the afternoon 26th Feb.  Just very light though wetting showers were around.

[Dark Horse]

 Rain Lady doesn't surprise me, I.e early signs of plant growth. And when you look at the 20c isotherm touching the southern coast of Spain and we're not even into April never mind May when it usually happens is it any wonder thoughts turn to just how hot it might get this year. Any plume we get could rival the record heat of 2022.

[Scuba steve]

 Dark Horse it’s coming

[damianslaw]

 Dark Horse Last summer brought very early heat to Iberia, we tapped into it during June and September, but I think it contributed to the low pressure fuelled July and August, the increased temp contrast from south to north through atlantic ignited the jet and the UK sat on the boundary.. it may just induce low pressure and trough activity to our SW riding on its northern heat line. 

[Penrith Snow]

3cms of snow lying in Penrith this evening, snow line was much lower than forecast about 100 meters. Nice to see but it won't last long.

[Had Worse]

Interesting feature coming up from the South. 

BBC showed it yesterday but it was further East and tracking East of the Pennines. 

[weatherobsuk]

 Had Worse

 

This feature could prove interesting after sunrise as model-runs are showing it stalling on the Welsh border and sending plenty of heavy showers across the NW throughout the day before dissipating and moving north into the early hours of tomorrow, Buxton Weather Watch picked up on this yesterday evening and gave a brief 'heads up' as there's going to be some settled snowfall over the high passes. 

[James M]

Looking at the southwest and central thread, there’s some surprise snowfalls this morning.

[Rush2019]

Morning.  Yes looks interesting a little later, Moorlands, peaks and Pennines favourable.

Calm out there, 1.8°C, DP 0°C and it's dry.... for now. 

[iand61]

Looking good for another round of snow up here today.

no science behind other than a quick look at the charts and the fact that I’m down at the other end of the Irwell wandering around the Manchester/ Salford border.

no doubt just unpleasant cold rain there.

[Weather-history]

Ice skating at the start of March 1929 

 

Edited March 2 by Weather-history

[Chris.R]

An air frost last night just ended. WRF predicts a quick rise in temperature before precipitation arrives but you never know.

[Dan B]

-1ºC and a good frost here; clear'ish skies so far

[iand61]

 Weather-history interesting to see the bit about thaw warning ignored and skaters going through the ice.

obviously stupidity isn’t a modern day thing.

[Day 10]

 Weather-history

That's crazy, I drive past Thorton Manor regularly. How times have changed, more like mud wrestling these days.

[Day 10]

 Weather-history

The end of Feb that year.

Makes you realise how poor things have become.

[Day 10]

Still every chance of one last Winter hurrah in the next few weeks going by this morning's charts, it's all about how the high orientates itself. As ever, we need a bit of luck.

[C J]

 Penrith Snow Yes, beautiful snowy scenes in Penrith this morning!

[cumbrian ice]

Just missed the snow here in Cockermouth. The snowline looks to around 100 metres, with proper lying snow from 150 metres from looking out the window. 

[damianslaw]

 C J No met office warning, Im surprised none as conditions 200m up certainly warranted it.

I thought north cumbria may have done well for relatively low level snow, given the persistance of the precipitation yesterday into the evening.

Alas nothing here, snowline about 350m I think hard to tell. Fells are thick with snow.

Once again late Feb/early March delivering good winter walking snowy weather, better than most of the winter.

Today has snow interest, the feature to the south will swing north and enhance convection. Winds off shore as well, only downside is daytime hour heating. Current temp a chilly 3.5 degrees. Another cold raw early spring day ahead.

[cheshire snow]

Snow in the midlands heading in our direction current snow line seems to be 100m.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices ranked

2013-14: 7
1988-89: 20
2006-07: 21
1997-98: 25
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
2015-16: 28
2021-22: 28
2019-20: 29
1973-74: 30
2023-24: 32
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
2016-17: 37
1991-92: 40
1975-76: 41
1999-00: 42
1992-93: 43
2002-03: 44
1994-95: 45
2018-19: 45
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
2011-12: 47
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
2022-23: 53
2005-06: 59
1979-80: 66
1996-97: 72
2000-01: 77
1993-94: 78
1983-84: 82
2014-15: 82
1982-83: 85
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
2017-18: 93
1986-87: 100
2012-13: 102
2008-09: 105
2010-11: 119
2020-21: 120
1990-91: 126
1995-96: 135
1984-85: 140
1976-77: 141
1981-82: 149
1985-86: 159
2009-10: 197
1978-79: 262